At this point in time, the QBO's behavior over the past 6 months has most closely resembled those of 1969-70, 1973-74, 1978-79, and 2002-03. The 2002-03 figure is the best match by far.
Average Monthly Difference:
2002-03: 1.09
1978-79: 1.78
1973-74: 1.81
1969-70: 1.99
What this likely means is that the QBO will likely remain above -5.00 through at least February and probably March, as well. The December 2004-March 2005 average should easily finish below +6.00 and above -6.00.
The following is the QBO if it follows the paths taken in the four aforementioned years:
Code: Select all
Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Avg.
2002 2.27 1.38 1.33 -0.53 1.11
1978 2.27 2.59 4.85 1.62 2.83
1973 2.27 -0.95 -1.35 -1.12 -0.29
1969 2.27 -2.43 -4.14 -7.36 -2.92
Mean 2.27 0.15 0.17 -1.85 0.19
With a weak El Niño persisting and the QBO likely to remain mostly above -5.00 (one can refer to some of DT's earlier work on this), it would be premature to write off Winter 2004-05 in the East in spite of the lack of snowfall through much of the Mid-Atlantic region.
Given past analogs with regard to ENSO and QBO, February still holds much promise to be cold and stormy.