Colder than it was around Christmas for Southeast Texas soon

[Portastorm]

Impact Weather Discussion



We're quite confident that it's going to be very cold across the Northern plains by the middle of next week. But we're somewhat less confident in the forecast across the Southern Plains and the Gulf Coast States later next week. Back in 1983 and 1989, such an airmass brought temperatures into the lower teens down to the Gulf Coast. While we can't rule such cold temperatures out, we think that the airmass will have some time to modify before it reaches the Gulf Coast States next Friday/Saturday. Upper teens to mid 20s down to the coast of Texas through Mississippi is a distinct possibility with this airmass. However, we are concerned that the same active southern storm stream that will be affecting the southwest U.S. this weekend into early next week could be interacting with the Arctic air as it moves southward to the Gulf Coast late next week. This could set the stage for a significant ice event quite far south. But we're talking about 10 days out now, so any talk of possible freezing rain or snow across the Gulf Coast States is just speculation at this point. We are gaining confidence that it'll be getting much colder across the Deep South by the weekend of th 15th/16th of January, however.

How would that airmass modify? Unlike the Christmas episode where south Texas saw cold temps, there will be more snow cover in the Central and Northern Plains as well as the Pacific Northwest if this weekend's storm holds true to forecast.

If the northern and southern streams phase, its "Katie bar the door" for those of us in the Southern Plains!

[vbhoutex]

About the only modifying factor I can think of would be if the air mass is shallow and we have much warmer air riding up over it. That could be what they are talking about since they are talking icing event also.

[Portastorm]

About the only modifying factor I can think of would be if the air mass is shallow and we have much warmer air riding up over it. That could be what they are talking about since they are talking icing event also.

Good point!

I haven't seen the models to see what is being suggsted on the depth of this Arctic airmass.

This current little cold spell proved to bust GFS numbers once again. We were progged for a high of 44 here in Austin today. Its lunchtime and only 37 degrees. Will be lucky to hit 40! I know this is a shallow airmass with a strong W-SW flow overhead but it's showing itself to be stout!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

About the only modifying factor I can think of would be if the air mass is shallow and we have much warmer air riding up over it. That could be what they are talking about since they are talking icing event also.

Good point!

I haven't seen the models to see what is being suggsted on the depth of this Arctic airmass.

This current little cold spell proved to bust GFS numbers once again. We were progged for a high of 44 here in Austin today. Its lunchtime and only 37 degrees. Will be lucky to hit 40! I know this is a shallow airmass with a strong W-SW flow overhead but it's showing itself to be stout!

Same here in Corpus. We were suppose to be in the upper 50's and it's 47 outside right now.

[vbhoutex]

We've finally manafged 46º here, about 3-4 degrees below the expected high and in case no one has noticed the radars are showing frozen precip in areas not too far to our North and West. In fact early today the radar was even showing it in the Austin area.

[southerngale]

Wow David, you're right. A mix is showing up on radar not too far north of us.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none

I know it won't make it down here but still. Our high for today was 50° but that was at midnight.
So far this afternoon...a high of 45° - several degrees lower than forecasted by NWS.

[Johnny]

39 degrees here in central Montgomery County and I don't see it rising at all the remainder of the day. This front was packing a pretty good punch. That's about a 30 degree drop from this time yesterday.

[chadtm80]

Its currently 80 here

[JenBayles]

Its currently 80 here

OK, rub it in already. I HATE this cold!

[Lindaloo]

Its currently 80 here

[jeff]

A few reports of ice pellets (sleet) this afternoon near Lufkin with
mostly virga (rain evaporating before reaching the ground) falling
from a mid level deck. Temps. have gone really nowhere today being
kept in the 30's north to low to mid 40's central and south. Cold air
advection is starting to weaken and area profilers are showing veering
winds toward the SE at 4000 ft and above.

Water vapor has a decent short wave heading for the state tonight into
Friday. Moist upglide will produce a lowering cloud deck to near
1000ft by 300am. Rain will break out this evening and slowly saturate
down to the surface after midnight. Top down warming will occur, and
this should limit any additional sleet troubles, although the precip.
may start as sleet over the northern counties and then change to rain.

Disturbance passes to the east late Friday with a coastal trough
washing out and warm front surging northward Saturday. Shallow cold
air mass will be replaced with well above normal temps. again by
Saturday and will remain through the middle of next week. Increasing
dewpoints will bring thick sea fog back to the region.

Extended:

Frigid arctic air builds over Canada. Ridging over the US west coast
will carve a deep downstream trough over the central US by the middle
of next week. Very cold arctic air will be allowed to surge southward
deep into the US. Forecast models show the 850mb -35C isotherm into KS
on the 13th, showing this air mass means bussiness. Still some
question as to how much cold air makes it this far south, but it would
appear we will get a good blow. Current data is dry with the event so
not looking at any precip. with the cold air at this time.

Jeff L

[CaptinCrunch]

35 degrees right now, and now we have a 20% CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT after midnight.

[PTrackerLA]

NWS Lake Charles mention possible winter weather mid-January:

A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...THEN A RETURN TO WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR COMMENCES ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A MUCH MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COLDER
WEATHER INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MIDDLE PART OF
JANUARY LOOKS POTENTIALLY WINTRY. STAY TUNED.

Winter isn't over by a long shot down here and remember that Feb. is our best chance of seeing snow .

[Portastorm]

We've finally manafged 46º here, about 3-4 degrees below the expected high and in case no one has noticed the radars are showing frozen precip in areas not too far to our North and West. In fact early today the radar was even showing it in the Austin area.

We had some very light rain (here in Austin) but I don't think we had any frozen precip reported in the area. A few degrees colder and it would have been a different ballgame.

[bfez1]

Our highs are in the 70's here with no cold front in sight.
And to think it snowed here on Christmas Day!
Strange weather, but I want some more winter weather!

[Miss Mary]

I want more winter too!

We've had rain for days here now, so much so that the Ohio River is to peak at flood stage today. The Great Miami River, feeding into the OR, is way beyond flood stage, near Cincy. Many roads closed, people had to evacuate their homes. And temps continue to be well above normal for this time of year. More rain is on tap until early next week. Our yard is a swamp. I am going thru so many towels, trying to keep doggy prints off carpets/tile floors!!! I love when it goes below 32, everything freezes and I no longer have to dry our dog's paws. Well, anyways, it's been so wet here that the wx is getting downright depressing now.

Where did winter go? LOL

Mary

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bastardi, in his Friday morning update, is worried about history repeating itself with snow and ice in deep South Texas before a citrus damaging freeze. He was dead on with the Christmas event and I notice just like with that event, the NWS here in Corpus is discounting next weeks cold front a week out as well.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
355 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2005

FEEL GFS IS A BIT TOO FAST WITH
THIS SECOND FRONT AND THINK IT SHOULD GET INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AROUND 12Z THEN INTO THE WATERS BY 18Z. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. GFS DRIES THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK AS COLD AS THE FRONT
TWO WEEKS AGO...COULD SEE A FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF WINDS
DECOUPLE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS


Can someone in the Northeast or mid Atlantic loan me a snow blower?

[Jagno]

Upper teens to mid 20s down to the coast of Texas through Mississippi is a distinct possibility with this airmass. However, we are concerned that the same active southern storm stream that will be affecting the southwest U.S. this weekend into early next week could be interacting with the Arctic air as it moves southward to the Gulf Coast late next week. This could set the stage for a significant ice event quite far south.

Hey guys, did we forget to tell you that we are in the middle of Mardi Gras down here? Now we can't have any of this nonsense right now. We have balls to attend (11 parties in 4 weekends to be exact) so far. Evening gowns are generally sleeveless and those dresses don't flow well with long johns underneath them.

Now we were generous enough to brave the cold and snow flurries for Christmas so you northerners could have a break. Would you be so kind as to hang on to this front until Monday for me? Thanks in advance!