Why Is Winter Avoiding the Mid-Atlantic?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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adelphi_sky
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Why Is Winter Avoiding the Mid-Atlantic?
I look at the 10-day forcast and it's just rain and highs in teh 50's and 60's. January is usually our snow month. Once February gets here, that's basically it for us as far as chances of snow are concerned. It's like February is the fourth quarter in the football game of winter for us. Less time to score!
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adelphi_sky
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Lowpressure
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I hate the current pattern... but it is looking promising after the January 15th-20th period. PNA looks to go + and the NAO looks to at least go neutral... hopefully -. Some forecasters are predicting a large ice storm around these 5 days, and I wouldn't be surprised if this happened. After the pattern changes (hopefully it does), we will get loads of snow. But before then, you might as well head to the beach. I think last summer has finally came.
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weatherfan
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This has been a more diffacult winter to have a great handel on to forecast on in a seasonal aspack due to the changeing ssts of the warm pools and the cold pools.Some are blaming El nino but what it is is the Alantic and pac ssts have been changeing but ever so slowey,Because of the pac sst have it been lined up right.The pattern has favered the western part of the nation and not the Eastern part.The NAO has been amazingley postive so far this winter.In fact I don't beleave truley anyone really expected the NAO to be as postive as it has been this far.Which has been a surpise on the dissapointment side for many this year so far.The big argurement and the debate that going on now is what happens end of Januarey and febuarey?.Some thinks we are going to have a big pattern changes such as HM and Don.However others are not quite as convince yet or better word for it are uncertain about the aspack of the pattern.Due to how this winter has trended with the pattern has favered a Western trough and a Eastern rige.So because of this trend this winter.I can see some point in being a bit worryed about reather this will lock in or just the same old same old this winter.Hopefully the pattern trends as HMs and Don has forecasted and the seacond hafe is much better for alot of us in the middle Alantic and the Northeast.But if it does it IF.Then it will be a very big dissapointment not just for those who were wanting the change to colder and snower but for those who had predicted it as well.
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Stephanie
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I'd say you covered all of the possibilities there yoda! 
Perhaps the easiest thing to "see" that's causing this warm air is the high pressure system sitting off the SE coast, adelphia. It's almost like that tough Bermuda High we get during the summertime that pumps up all of the heat from the south, this little sucker is pumping up the warm air from the south and blocking the movement of any low pressure system, causing them to go through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
To me it's a total waste to have a winter without snow. I'd rather it just be springtime. However, I'm happy for the rest of country that's getting all of that snow, particularly the West because they've been so dry. I know that the OV and GL have been screwed the past few years as well, so I guess it's our turn.
Perhaps the easiest thing to "see" that's causing this warm air is the high pressure system sitting off the SE coast, adelphia. It's almost like that tough Bermuda High we get during the summertime that pumps up all of the heat from the south, this little sucker is pumping up the warm air from the south and blocking the movement of any low pressure system, causing them to go through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
To me it's a total waste to have a winter without snow. I'd rather it just be springtime. However, I'm happy for the rest of country that's getting all of that snow, particularly the West because they've been so dry. I know that the OV and GL have been screwed the past few years as well, so I guess it's our turn.
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Chris the Weather Man
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Scott_inVA
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Re: Why Is Winter Avoiding the Mid-Atlantic?
These responses are all valid and offer some causes to what's going on here in the Mid-Atlantic (though this isn't the puny little El Nino some forecast last summer!).
I get these questions daily right now and tell people the "effect" side of the equation is simply to watch your sea level pressure and the location of the sub tropical ridge on forecast maps. You can do that for our area at Mid-Atlantic WX.com or other sites but until the ridge is beaten down, flattens or slides well off shore, it is what it is
Tonight's FROPA in the region is typical of this pattern...little moisture for us, negligible wind shift and WSW winds behind the front.
I love this wx in January but it's early in the game, we're only 2 1/2 weeks into winter. I was frequently *ploinked* last Fall for saying the SE Ridge would dominate through early winter but even I don't believe this holds for the next 2 months.
Watch your barometer; check the progged SFC maps and you'll have a good idea in the Mid-Atlantic when we'll see winter.
Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
I get these questions daily right now and tell people the "effect" side of the equation is simply to watch your sea level pressure and the location of the sub tropical ridge on forecast maps. You can do that for our area at Mid-Atlantic WX.com or other sites but until the ridge is beaten down, flattens or slides well off shore, it is what it is
Tonight's FROPA in the region is typical of this pattern...little moisture for us, negligible wind shift and WSW winds behind the front.
I love this wx in January but it's early in the game, we're only 2 1/2 weeks into winter. I was frequently *ploinked* last Fall for saying the SE Ridge would dominate through early winter but even I don't believe this holds for the next 2 months.
Watch your barometer; check the progged SFC maps and you'll have a good idea in the Mid-Atlantic when we'll see winter.
Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
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