Joe B. brings brutal cold and more Snow to Texas....

[Johnny]

I won't be quoting Joe B. since I haven't read this myself BUT I have heard that he is saying the next arctic chill will bring colder temperatures and more snow than what was seen on Christmas here along the Texas coast. I believe he said that the snow totals would dwarf what was seen around Christmas time here. I guess my question(s) is, what is he seeing? I have read a number of discussions on this next arctic plunge and for the most part their will not be any moisture associated with it. Also, this one won't be as cold as the christmas front. Their doesn't seem to be alot of hype about this next shot coming down. Is Joe Bastardi off his rocker? What should we be expecting down here later on next week? Thanks.

[CaptinCrunch]

As for the temps the GFS is down playing the artic cold because it does not take into account the snow and ice pack that stretches from the OK/TX Panhandles up to Canada that will keep any cold air mass from modifying very much. Now for there being any precip that has yet to be seen, the x-mas snow on the TX/LA coast was do to a upper low that formed in the GOM and shot across the gulf coast, so far the models show no low forming, but that could change by next week, and as per the latest forecast for D/FW:

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy and windy, with a low around 33.

Thursday: A 10 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy and windy, with a high near 33.

Like I said the precip thing will be a wait and see issue, oh yeah the NWS has lowered the high temps for Thur-Sat to be close to the 32 (freezing mark)!!

[Scorpion]

I hate all of you South Texans!!!!!!!!!!!!! . We get stuck in the 80's once again!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Yea, I saw his comments in his early morning update and I have not seen the videos yet. He was on target about it snowing down here at Christmas, but he was shocked at the amount as was 100% of the rest of us. NWS Corpus (as of this morning) says it's going to get cold down here, but not as cold as Christmas. But they were nowhere even close to getting us near freezing a week , even 4 days out of the Christmas cold front.

We shall see. If a hurricanes can hit a state four times and even strike some areas twice, they why can't we have another snowstorm? Anything is possible with Texas weather.

[cajungal]

Joe B. is wrong a lot of the time. I have not heard anything about another snow event for south Texas in the near future. But, if he is right, bring some more snow down to southeast Louisiana. I miss it already!

[Portastorm]

For the record, JB did not say it would snow in south Texas. He said he had some concerns that the weather MIGHT repeat itself in the same areas where it snowed before Christmas.

I believe the "dwarf" comment came in regards to temperatures and he seems to think that the potential exists for colder temps with this Arctic outbreak than the one before Christmas.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Since his stuff is copyrighted, I won't cut n paste. He said he was "worried" that a freeze would happen in the citrus areas (the RGV) and a chance at snow/ice beforehand.

True, Bastardi tends to hype it up a little much. But when it comes to Texas cold and tropical weather I listen to him more than the NWS. Error rates can't be any worse than the NWS offices in Texas now without the "old school" forecasters that have retired or died off.

[Portastorm]

Here is an example of what CC has been talking about ... this snippet is from this afternoon's forecast discussion out of Brownsville NWS:

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THURSDAY. LATEST RUN SHOWS THE MAIN PUSH BEING DEFLECTED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH TEXAS GETTING
THE TAIL END.

My comment: What models? This dude's looking at the GFS only. The Euro over the last few runs has consistently shown the main brunt of this airmass pouring straight down the Plains into Texas. He's going to look pretty stupid if the Euro verifies and they're breaking out the smudge pots (or whatever they use these days) in the Valley to keep the citrus fruits from freezing!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Portastorm,

Here's a snip from the NWS Corpus


PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO
SOUTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY. A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY NOT BE TOO
FAR BEHIND THIS PACIFIC FRONT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE
30S AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

Snip from NWS Austin/San Antonio

LONG TERM...WEST COAST SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ALLOW PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.


Snip from NWS Houston

APPROACHING LARGE UPPER
TROUGH (AS PER ECMWF) BY MID WEEK WILL USHER A STRONG COLD FRONT...
PROBABLY MOVING ACROSS SE TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN
CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THIS FRONT PASS THROUGH WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN
(SOURCE) AIR MASS MOVING IN.


They all worship at the alter of the GFS and they get burned by it time after time on the cold. It was suppose to be in 60's today here and it barely got above 50 today.

[Johnny]

IT was supposed to get up to 55 today up in Conroe but I just now got up to 44 degrees. Monday, the NWS offices will be trimming back on temps. with this next arctic blast.

[aggiecutter]

The GFS did a horrible job with the current arctic mass in the southern plains and Texas, and it will do a even worse job with the one next week. It's shunting next weeks air mass off to the east way too fast. The local mets. in the southern plains will get caught with their pants down if they continue to base their forcast of next weeks arctic front based solely on the GFS.

[aggiecutter]

I just checked the 18z run of the GFS and it has a direct discharge of Siberian air straight into the lone star state. Could very well be the coldest air to hit the state since 89'. Looks like the model is beginning to catch on.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

12z EURO has almost an identical solution at 168.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[Burn1]

Look guys what happened in SE Texas was a once in a lifetime
phenomena. Not saying it will not snow again but look at the chances.
Go back to when records were first kept.....You had to go back to 1918
to see that most areas hadn't had a measurable amount since then.....

If anything maybe you will see the more common once in a while flurries.

I remember in S. Fl in 77 when it snowed.....Everyday after that for a month people were rumoring that another snow was on the way....

Right now in Ft. Laud 75 without a cloud in the sky. Eat your heart out(lol)

[jinftl]

Agree...it's definitely fun and exciting to see some models way out in the future show extreme results...and sometimes they do pan out.....but we have to keep in perspective the frequency of these events, and understand there are reasons why they are so infrequent.

Before Christmas, I remember reading predictions by certain members of 20's in suburban Miami 10 days out......I don't think we got much below 50 degrees, and that was only for a night or 2.

[southerngale]

Look guys what happened in SE Texas was a once in a lifetime
phenomena. Not saying it will not snow again but look at the chances.
Go back to when records were first kept.....You had to go back to 1918
to see that most areas hadn't had a measurable amount since then.....

If anything maybe you will see the more common once in a while flurries.

I remember in S. Fl in 77 when it snowed.....Everyday after that for a month people were rumoring that another snow was on the way....

Right now in Ft. Laud 75 without a cloud in the sky. Eat your heart out(lol)

Well, it depends on where you're talking about. Brownsville and Corpus...sure.

But here in the Beaumont area (Southeast Texas), we got very little snow on Christmas Eve. I was able to walk around and accumulate enough snow to make about a quarter-sized snowball. lol
Hardly once in a lifetime for here. Granted, we don't get snow very often but we do get flurries every few years or so and we've had enough to build snowmen several times in my lifetime and I'm not that old. So even though most of the snow missed us last time, our chances here in Southeast Texas are still significantly higher than the Brownsville and Corpus areas. A colder and wetter winter was predicted for us a few months back and I'm gonna keep hoping that the the two can come together here so I can build Frosty.

[Yankeegirl]

Cold weather!! Bring it on!!!

[vbhoutex]

I've lived in Houston for 34 years and on the Gulf Coast for 49. What some saw, especially in South TX to the SW of Houston is indeed a once in a lifetime event, and it would be for much of the South-some areas got 9"-13"!!! That is significant snow for many areas of the country! But as SG said we do see winter precip every few years. No we are not talking dumps or for that matter inches of snow or sleet but it happens. In 1973 we had 3 snows in 4 weeks and I am not talking a dusting either. No they weren't huge either-biggest was 4" in some areas, but they were all measureable. I can remember probably 5 measureable snow events during the last 34 years, obviously nothing extraordinary, but not "once in lifetime" either.

[KatDaddy]

VB is correct. It was truly a once in a lifetime event. You need to back to 1895 to get another event like Christmas Eve. Absolutley amazing so dont expect it any time soon. We may have another snow/sleet threat the Winter.......1973............but nothing like S and SE TX saw Christmas.

[Kennethb]

Here in Baton Rouge, I can recall about 7 snow which were measurable. Most were never predicted, including the March 18-19 snows in 1968 and the two snows of February 1988 which occurred twice in three days. However I can recall several wintry precip. episodes which were predicted and never occurred. With sharp and under estimated strengths of cold, the possibility is there. Besides the best chances of snow down south is in February. And our best chances are when snow is not predicted.

[jeff]

A few comments:

First, the snows of christmas Eve in S TX were historical. You must go back to 1895 to get totals anywhere close to those seen with the 2004 event. It is extremely unlikely that any of S TX or SE TX will see snowfall totals of 8-13 inches again within our lifetimes. The chances of it happening on Christmas are even smaller and really near 0.

It is true that light amounts of snow are a little more common. Many believe snow is rare since we have not had it this far south since 1989, however a look back shows several snow events from the 50' to the 70's (1-6 inches) with the 90's snow drought.

Now looking at next week. Cold air will be coming south, now I don't see it as record breaking, but highs near freezing as far south as the coast will be possible. The whole deal with the moisture and winter precip. is new in the model data with the GFS really latching on today. However, I have questions with the profiles along the Gulf coast and it would appear most "frozen" precip will be inland around Dallas. Freezing rain and icing however would be possible as far soth as Victoria to Lake Charles do to a shallow cold air mass. This is not the same pattern as Christmas, as the trough is directed more at the SE US and not the S plains.

We will see how this all plays out over the next few days

Lastly, if the NWS forecasted like JB we would be in a state of panic all the time. In fact we would probably do nothing but sit at home waiting for this week's distaster to strike. The ramifications of NWS forecasts extend well beyond the computer screen. Extreme statements and forecasts at long range time periods are ill advised.