Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

R-Dub · #41 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:10 pm

35.1 degrees here and cloudy, I think everyone will cool off tonight!

R-Dub · #42 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:14 pm

Lynden has 5 Foot drifts, with winds still in the 40MPH range. The worst they have seen since 1996. I just talked to a very knowlagable friend up in Lynden, he said everyone from Seattle north will see snow tonight!

Even Rich Marriot is still saying that.

R-Dub · #43 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:20 pm

http://wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/default.aspx?cam=1145

Just to my west on 101 They are getting hammered!

madscientist · #44 Postby **madscientist** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:21 pm

Scorpion wrote:I dont understand how you guys are so far north in latitude yet its so hard to get snow in that area. Its snowing in Las Vegas. Theres more chance for it to snow in Georgia than in Seattle. Why is it so warm there?

Or, how about this? Why does Amarillo, TX have much more seasonal snow than Minneapolis, MN?

As for Seattle, it is so warm because it is close to the ocean. The winds blow off the ocean, moderating the temperatures. Without this moderating influence, it would have the climate of Montana.

AnthonyC · #45 Postby **AnthonyC** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:43 pm

What a bust!!! I was almost 100 percent confident this evolving pattern would materialize, but was I wrong!! Models are almost 180 degrees from yesterday. Unfortunately, I don't see any lowland snow for the Seattle metro area. Too many factors working against this storm. First, the current surface low off the Washington coast is ALOT weaker than what models advertised yesterday afternoon. Second, the position of the low is further north than forecasted, thus a southerly component is pumping through most of Western Washington...except Whatcom County. Third, the arctic air in central BC has modified significantly...and models over-estimated the amount of cold air in Canada...AS USUAL!! Although some models do bring the arctic front to about Seattle tonight, I don't think it'll happen. Current freezing levels are at 3k and rising...the low levels of the atmosphere are almost at 40 F and 925 mb temperatures are at +4 C. You can't get lowland snow unless 925 mb temperatures are at 0 C or below. This winter is proving to be a complete dud!! So just keep praying we get something in February because the rest of January is looking mild and dry. I thought we had this arctic outbreak in the bag, but just goes to show how poor model forecasts are and how difficult it is to get lowland snow in Western Washington.

Anthony

cloud9 · #46 Postby **cloud9** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:08 pm

Temp has been staying a steady 38*F

R-Dub · #47 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:15 pm

Temp dropping here in Stanwood, down to 34.7 degrees

cloud9 · #48 Postby **cloud9** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:23 pm

Hopefully it's coming my way. I just don't believe the weather models anymore. I do believe in prayer! :wink:

R-Dub · #49 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 5:35 pm

18z GFS still advertising cold for next week. People got all depressed over one model that showed warm 00z from last night. That was ONE run, I don't think we will be as warm as everyone is talking about.

TT-SEA · #50 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:01 pm

Come on... the 18Z run of the GFS gives us a glancing blow at best next week with no precip. Then its warm and dry under high pressure.

The current situation looks much better than that... and it still can't snow in Seattle.

Its a bust. If you admit that fact then you will feel better. I do.

R-Dub · #51 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:05 pm

I am not giving up yet, and do you call -18 850MB temps a glancing blow?
We are not done yet!

Get your snow shovel and gloves ready TT

TT-SEA · #52 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:14 pm

Dude no way. From the Seattle NWS...

...VERY COLD AIR MASS TO SPARE WESTERN WASHINGTON NEXT WEEK..
EARLIER THIS WEEK...A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR HAD THE POTENTIAL OF
MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. NOW...THAT COLD AIR MASS IN
NORTHWEST CANADA IS EXPECTED MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY...SPARING WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY WHERE COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE EXTREME NORTH SOUND FROM THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF WESTERN WHATCOM
COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE MILD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

W13 · #53 Postby **W13** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:14 pm

I agree, K-Dub. This is not over with. People get depressed over one or two model runs, but they can change back as quickly as they originally changed. People have to remember that.

As for tonight, it is still looking good for people Everett Northward, and locations above about 300-500 feet north of Tacoma.

Just watch, by tommorow morning most of Western Washington will at least have a little bit of snow, and we will all be comparing our snowfall accumulations.

#54 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:15 pm

Welcome to all of our new freinds from the Washington area!! I love the Puget Sound area. Only been there once to visit Anacortes where my dad was born, but fell in love with the area.

Now to the weather or rather the models. One thing I've noticed in several of the posts from this group, who by the way seem hang on the word snow almost as much as us SouthernTexans do(at least the lowlanders), is that there seems to be a tendency to hang onto each run of the models seperately as opposed to watching for the trend and the consistency(I know, I know, there is very little of that!)from run to run. For those that are doing that, I will tell you right now, it will drive you crazy!!! I am by no means a professional met, but that is one thing I have learned over the years. DO NOT forecast/predict/wish for weather from singular runs of the models. As some have stated they go back and forth until they either bust or come into agreement with each other. And of course, I know you all know to use more than one model!

This may seem like it is a put down. It is not. It is an observation I have made since you all started posting regularly. It is in no way meant to be a comment on anyones skills, just an observation of what I have noticed and a suggestion. Again WELCOME TO STORM2K!!

TT-SEA · #55 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:18 pm

Yeah... the trend is towards much more mild weather.

Forget the arctic outbreak now... it will easier on you when it does not happen. And it won't... trust me.

R-Dub · #56 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:26 pm

Hi vbhoutex thanks for the welcome! Anacortes recieved a few inches of snow this morning!

Guess we will see who is right TT! I will be enjoying snow tonight, as my temp is now down to 33 degrees.

skipnfamily · #57 Postby **skipnfamily** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:27 pm

I am at 33 degrees and still slowly going down here in central Kitsap.... I am pretty sure we will see some snow here at least.... Still a nice light cool E breeze. If channel 5 is still saying 1-3 inches in central sound I believe it, they are the most conservative of the bunch......I know we didn't get up to 41 today like they said.

R-Dub · #58 Postby **R-Dub** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:29 pm

Yeah we topped out at 35 here today Skip, now 33 also with a slight NE breeze. It will be a wet snow, but as long as its white that's all that matters.

What is your temp TT?
Justin?

W13 · #59 Postby **W13** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:39 pm

Currently 39 F, with a dew point at 24 F.

What would our dew point and temp have to be to see snow tonight?

cloud9 · #60 Postby **cloud9** » Fri Jan 07, 2005 6:47 pm

Temp has fallen to 35*F in the last hour

Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

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