Tropical Cyclone 08P

[P.K.]

STORM WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 06/0719 UTC 2005 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 170 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 060600 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 14.6S 170.3E AT 060600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN
WESTSOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS CLOSE TOCENTRE IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.7S 167.6E AT 061800 UTC AND NEAR 16.3S 164.6E AT 070600 UTC. SHIPS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS
USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOVDOT FJ. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 008.

RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.

[HURAKAN]

Kerry has weakened from 45 to 40 mph but continues to be forcasted to intensify to hurricane intensity or 75 mph. If Kerry tracks as forecasted there looks like is going to be a great possibility the northeastern coast of Australia will be impacted by this system in one point. Let see what happens!

[James]

If Kerry does make landfall there, I believe that it will be the first time a storm has done so in that area since 2000. I may be wrong but I think that was the last time.

An current satellite imagery Kerry is sporting what looks like a little CDO. May well just be a transient convective burst, though.

[HURAKAN]

You are right, James, the last storm to make landfall in Australia's East Coast was TC Vaughan in 2000.

[James]

Kerry has intensified to 50 kts, and she is now expected to intensify further to 75 kts in two days' time according to the JTWC.

[HURAKAN]

Kerry has now reached hurricane intensity or 75 mph according to Dvorak that now classifies the system as 4.0; according to the latest forecast Kerry should continue moving WSW, than more to the west, and then it could go a little WNW. An australian impact seems more likely than ever but it's still not time to throw the towel!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY; BRING IT ON!

Stronger than ever.
Structurally, better edified than ever.
Continues to pose a threat to Australia.

[James]

It now looks like an eye is becoming visible in infrared satellite imagery. Kerry appears to be getting closer to becoming the first major tropical cyclone of 2005.

[HURAKAN]

In 144 hours, or 6 days, NOGAPS is forecasting a tropical cyclone "Kerry" to be very close to landfall near the eastern-central coast of Queensland, probably as of hurricane intensity. On the other side of Australia, a tropical cyclone north of Western Australia north coast possibly ready to make landfall. The concerning scenario is not in the Southern Hemisphere, but in the northern one. Near Sri Lanka there will be an intensifying cyclone, right now is TC 1B, and I repeat, that is is according to NOGAPS, the JTWC says the cyclone will remain a TD or weak TS. The problem is concerning the heavy rains the island will receive from the cyclone. Areas that have been severely impacted by the tsunami will have an increased risk of deceases, and infections, and many other problems. Let see what happens, but when things go really wrong, they do, and this is an example. NATURE VS. HUMANS.

[James]

Let's hope that 01B really doesn't have much of an effect at all. Hopefully it will keep its distance from Sri Lanka, and indeed everywhere else.

So we are looking at the possibility of Kerry meandering around for another 6 days at least? That's interesting. Am I correct in thinking that the peak of season is approaching in the Southern Hemisphere?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

The Southern Hemisphere has an odd season. There are typically two peaks: One in December-January, and one in March-April. February tends to see a decrease in activity.

[James]

Hmm, that's rather interesting. Would you happen to know why this is at all? Thanks.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Not sure, but it may be on the FAQ on the JTWC website.

[HURAKAN]

Kerry seems to be intensifying and may be on the way to become the first major cyclone/hurricane/typhoon of the 2005.

[P.K.]

[SafeStorm.org]

In January 2005 our group worked on the following weather phenomena:

From January 05 through 11 we worked on tropical cyclone Kerry (08P). As a result the cyclone didn't reach the Australian coast and dissipated over water.

January 11 through 20 we worked on the Northern Atlantic storms. We softened the storm consequences in Norway and Sweden and partly in Great Britain, letting the wind pass through at the same time.

January 15 through 20 we worked on arranging precipitation at the South of Australia to lower the fire danger which was extremely high in the states of South Australia and New South Wales.

In all cases certain result have been achieved, severe weather consequences softened (earlier forecasts predicted worse scenarios).

January 21 we temporarily stop our activity for organisational reasons. We will hopefully be able to resume it in the early February.

For full activity log please see
SafeStorm.org