Not seeing any real cold outbreak in US for Jan........

[Burn1]

Should see some below normal temps by end of next week in Northern Plains and Desert SW, but not on the extreme side

Again, rest of country should see normal to above normal temps through
Jan 22....

Most of the extreme cold will stay bottled up north of the border with nothing to drive it to far south.

[Tip]

Cold enough for you ,dude!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192m.gif

850 0 line into Mexico

[TS Zack]

The GFS looks like it is underestimating the Cold Air. This may be frigid air heading South. The amount of Cold Air just north of the border will head South. The GFS progs a 1052MB high across the Central Plains. That should bring some very cold air straight southward.

[Scorpion]

Dang thats the strongest high Ive ever heard of. Hopefully the cold air doesnt stop on the Northern Gulf Coast like it usually does. Maybe we can get one last shot of the 30's down here before spring arrives.

[aggiecutter]

The 12z run of the Ensembles has a 1052mg high centered over the Central Plains late next week. That should put everyone between the Rockies and the Appalachains in the deep freeze into the weekend.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10812.html

A reinforcing shot is progged the early-mid part of the following week.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10812.html

[sertorius]

There is no doubt that the gfs is beginning to intensify the cold air beginning on Thursday. Our NWS still has us with a high of 25 on Friday, but that was put out at 4:00 A.M. before the lates model runs. What ever else may happen is up in the air-but I think it is a pretty safe bet that by next Friday Lawrence and Kansas City could be seeing highs in the single digits thru at least Sunday. I hope we get snow with this as it looks to me to be our last chance at something (maybe a few cold shots and some lt snow) major for about 2-3 weeks. My concern now is the difference in surface temps. as progged by the gfs and eta-for Monday they are 20 degrees different and Tuesday they are 10 degrees-if the eta is correct and we are colder, we could have another serious icing event here. Def. needs to be watched!!

[ChiTownMC]

I don’t know how much this will relate to the next cold outbreak, but when I was on the highway today, I saw at least 2000-3000 geese migrating south. Usually they are gone around here by early December but these must have been the stragglers. This was the greatest migration I have ever seen. Anybody think this may have something to do with the next cold wave?

[ALhurricane]

I highly disagree with your statement of 'normal to above normal' temps for most of the country through Jan 22nd.

In fact, an arctic front will sweep across the central and eastern U.S. the middle to later half of the week. Most model guidance shows a 1040-1050 high plunging down into the U.S. with the upper flow coming right of Siberia. That's right...I said Siberian air.

While there will be above normal temps for the beginning of this upcoming week in the east, MUCH colder temps are coming well before Jan 22nd.

[krysof]

do u think it could be colder than what they are predicting. Weather.com shows 32 degrees on the 15th.

[ALhurricane]

I am not sure for what area that 32 degrees is being reported.

I do think the temps will be colder than most current forecasts indicate. The true nature of this airmass probably won't be realized until we get a little closer to the event.

FYI, it's currently -55F in Siberia right now.

[krysof]

the 32 is for north central new jersey.

[Guest]

I highly disagree with your statement of 'normal to above normal' temps for most of the country through Jan 22nd.

In fact, an arctic front will sweep across the central and eastern U.S. the middle to later half of the week. Most model guidance shows a 1040-1050 high plunging down into the U.S. with the upper flow coming right of Siberia. That's right...I said Siberian air.

While there will be above normal temps for the beginning of this upcoming week in the east, MUCH colder temps are coming well before Jan 22nd.

I agree with the higher than normal temps. Here in Florida it is extremely warm. Man, Two-Threes days of cold and that's it, winter is over..

[krysof]

don't say it will continue to be warm just because you won't cool down too much

[jkt21787]

ALHurricane, nice to see you back.

You are right, much colder air is building in for late next week. It is a 1050 MB high, that should be a first sign of things. The weather service is generally been lowering temps with every consecutive forecast, and this could continue as we get closer.

Looks a cold second half of Janurary for Most of the country east of the rockies. Don't see any real winter weather precip threats in this area though, but maybe that will change too.

[krysof]

I think the second half of January will set up the stage for severe wintry precipitation for February. It should be cold but dry for the second half but the storm track will set up right along the coast heading straight up. February will be very snowy and cold.

[Burn1]

Don't hold your breath.....Should see a moderate cool down mid to end of next week, but then it is back to above avg to avg temps. May see
some moderate cooling for east the following week.

I do not see this frigid air to our North invading the U.S. at the extreme it is in Canada....Maybe the Northern Plains

[yoda]

Don't hold your breath.....Should see a moderate cool down mid to end of next week, but then it is back to above avg to avg temps. May see
some moderate cooling for east the following week.

I do not see this frigid air to our North invading the U.S. at the extreme it is in Canada....Maybe the Northern Plains

The AFD from LWX makes you look ridiculous.

This is Siberian air sir. Please real ALHurricane's post above.

[Nate-Gillson]

There is one thing I hate about extreme cold outbreaks: the frozen pipes. Last January we had an intense cold snap which caused the water pipes to freeze where I live (I live in Kirkwood Estates Mobile Home Park on the Southwest side of Cedar Rapids about a quarter mile south of US 30).

[Burn1]

One other note.....It is absolutely beautiful in S. Fl today......80 with low
humidity.....Looks like the majority of our winter will stay this way!!

Awesome!!

[yoda]

One other note.....It is absolutely beautiful in S. Fl today......80 with low
humidity.....Looks like the majority of our winter will stay this way!!

Awesome!!

I may be visiting FL in late March over my Spring Break.. I love the warm weather in FL... especially up here when it is in the 20s and snowing... gives a nice respite.