Not seeing any real cold outbreak in US for Jan........

[Burn1]

Our weather is more like late March/April now...Best time of the year!!

[jkt21787]

Don't hold your breath.....Should see a moderate cool down mid to end of next week, but then it is back to above avg to avg temps. May see
some moderate cooling for east the following week.

I do not see this frigid air to our North invading the U.S. at the extreme it is in Canada....Maybe the Northern Plains

I think it is obvious that the -20 and -30 degree temperatures in Canada WILL NOT make it all the way down south through the U.S., but the airmass is. Again, as Yoda and ALHurricane said, this is Siberian air, it is as cold as it gets. 1050 MB highs are quite infrequent and again that should be the first sign. Below zero temperatures are possible even down into the Ohio and Missouri valleys, maybe even further south, and freezing temps should at least make it into Northern Florida.

It looks like the cold air will at least be in place 5-7 days, and maybe longer.

[Scorpion]

Siberian high! Last time we got one we had flurries here during the day. Thats right flurries here in S Florida. It got down to 29, with a windchill of 19. I just hope against hope that it will penetrate this far down again! Give the snowbirds a rude awakening !

[Lowpressure]

NWS D.C. has Saturday the 15th with a high of 29 degrees, I would say that is colder air. I think this discussion is relative to where you live. Mid-Atlantic is about to go back into winter next weekend. It also appears to be set up for some snow/ winter weather as well from the 15th-22nd. There is alot of cold air in Canada, a 1050 high dropping south will allow some of that to spill down.

[jkt21787]

Just read the LWX AFD and Wow, talk about detail! Good explanation of the models and their differences/similarities in the extended section.

Are their AFDs always that good?

[yoda]

NWS D.C. has Saturday the 15th with a high of 29 degrees, I would say that is colder air. I think this discussion is relative to where you live. Mid-Atlantic is about to go back into winter next weekend. It also appears to be set up for some snow/ winter weather as well form the 15-22.

Correct and I agree. I am looking closely at the 7-10 day time period as the ECMWF/GFS seems to be showing some things.. along with the GGEM at 240 hrs. showing some possible coastal fun 'n games...

Just read the LWX AFD and Wow, talk about detail! Good explanation of the models and their differences/similarities in the extended section.

Are their AFDs always that good?

Usually they are.

[jkt21787]

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS WANTS US TO REMEMBER THAT
IT IS THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY AND BRINGS -23 TO -28C 850MB TEMPS OVER
THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY WHICH WOULD MEAN SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS. THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT +10C WARMER...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
MOS GUIDANCE.

This is the St. Louis AFD this afternoon, GFS supports single digit HIGHS in central Missouri this next weekend. Euro is warmer, and it looks they are going with a blend of the two.

Potential is there for major cold, again below zero for the MO and OH valleys, all that flooding water may freeze!

[yoda]

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS WANTS US TO REMEMBER THAT
IT IS THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY AND BRINGS -23 TO -28C 850MB TEMPS OVER
THE AREA BY NEXT SATURDAY WHICH WOULD MEAN SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS. THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT +10C WARMER...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
MOS GUIDANCE.

This is the St. Louis AFD this afternoon, GFS supports single digit HIGHS in central Missouri this next weekend. Euro is warmer, and it looks they are going with a blend of the two.

Potential is there for major cold, again below zero for the MO and OH valleys, all that flooding water may freeze!

I would agree as well. I don't know how long you have been here... but the GFS always seems to overdo the cold air masses... well MOST of the time. The ECMWF is usually good to use for MR/LR forecasts.

[jkt21787]

I would agree as well. I don't know how long you have been here... but the GFS always seems to overdo the cold air masses... well MOST of the time. The ECMWF is usually good to use for MR/LR forecasts.

I definitely know about cold air bias in the GFS, so that must be considered, but it looks like the coldest air of the season is building north and ready to plunge southward!

Right now the euro or a blend of the models is the way to go until we further see how strong this air is.

Btw, St. Louis is going for upper teens to lower 20s for highs next weekend, and lows 0 to 10.

[Scorpion]

Looks like winter will come back with a vengeance.

[ALhurricane]

The one thing I would like to hear from Burn1 is WHY the cold air won't come down as he says it will? Sorry burn, but one state a country does not make. Just because FL may be warm doesn't mean the whole country is.

In regards to the GFS cold bias, I definitely agree that the majority of the time I would trend up from what the GFS advertises. However, given the origin of this airmass, I may be more inclined to lean toward the colder bias. Keep in mind, models have a very hard time resolving a siberian air mass.

[JQ Public]

Grass is turning green here... allergy cases are on the rise....i miss winter

[krysof]

When it was mild, my cold got began and got worse. Colder air came in and my cold is gone

[nystate]

From the NWS BUF AFD-

THE BIG CHANGE WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. WE EXPECT A CHANGEOVER OF
RAIN TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DIP TO ABOUT
-20C BY FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE
ARCTIC WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL BE THE COLDEST THAT WE HAVE
SEEN THIS WINTER.

Earlier in December we had a day with a high of -6 F; this is supposed to be even colder.

[Chris the Weather Man]

nystate, that is nothing, remember last Jan of 2004? High around -18F in Lake Placid, NY, with the of low -37F

[Janie34]

Siberian air = Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

The strength of the high pressure system is a good indicator of how cold this air mass is and its region of origin. It's been a while since I've seen a 1050mb+ high move in. If we can get some blocking action going, look out.

I do not see this frigid air to our North invading the U.S. at the extreme it is in Canada....Maybe the Northern Plains

Right, then. Given the signs that are in place which would indicate such an event taking place, why do you think such a thing wouldn't happen?

[KWT]

ah,the good ole Seibrian high.

thats a good sign,it can take alot to shift a high at 1050 if it blocks.

and if it does stay it'll inject alot of that Seibrian air into north America,this will be a major cold outbreak for you lot

[nystate]

nystate, that is nothing, remember last Jan of 2004? High around -18F in Lake Placid, NY, with the of low -37F

Yes, I remember that well. Here in the city we had a high of -9F one of those days with a low of -33F. CBS even sent a crew up here to report live on TV for their early show. Quite an event...

[Air Force Met]

The one thing I would like to hear from Burn1 is WHY the cold air won't come down as he says it will? Sorry burn, but one state a country does not make. Just because FL may be warm doesn't mean the whole country is.

In regards to the GFS cold bias, I definitely agree that the majority of the time I would trend up from what the GFS advertises. However, given the origin of this airmass, I may be more inclined to lean toward the colder bias. Keep in mind, models have a very hard time resolving a siberian air mass.

Finally...somebody gets it. This is Siberian arctic air. The models try to always treat it like cP air and drive it east. This is cA. The GFS has been very bad with temps as of late. Last week...had Omaha at 20...and it was -9. That's bad.

[Air Force Met]

Should see some below normal temps by end of next week in Northern Plains and Desert SW, but not on the extreme side

Again, rest of country should see normal to above normal temps through
Jan 22....

Most of the extreme cold will stay bottled up north of the border with nothing to drive it to far south.

As many have pointed out...this is Siberian air. Right now...the high is sitting over northeast Siberia and ridging into alaska. This is a HUGH high. Not pressure wise...it is double-barreled at about 1050 or so. BUt...the ridging etends from eastern Alaska...all the way back into NE Siberia to the first high...and then back to the sw into south Siberia to the next high.

All models bring these highs down. All of them bring a 1050mb+ into the central plains by late weekend.

Now...given that info...I ask how you can say the air will stay bottled up north of the border and that most of the country will see near normal temps?

Oh...BTW...the normal high for Springfield, MO is 41...and they are calling for a high of 20 on Friday. That is 20 below normal. So...are they wrong (because you say they are supposed to be near normal).

Bottom line is you need to brush up on some arctic air forecasting. Go back and look at 1983. It was a classic example. The flow on Dec. 23 was zonal...east west...all the way from ND to the GOM. YEt...even though the upper flow was due east and no front would have ever made it into TExas with that flow...the siberian air plunged due south and stuck us in the deep-freeze. Siberian air behaves differently and this is SIberian air. IF you think that the country by and large will be near normal through Jan 22...than you are 1) not a very good forecaster...or 2) delusional

Oh...one last thing. The NWS is ND is going for lows Wed night of -20 with wind gusts over 50. That is a wind chill of -60. Then...by Friday...they are going for lows of <-30 and highs of -20.

I think I call that extreme.