MJO coming and it will.....

[wxguy25]

Mean a MAJOR pattern change over North America the next 8-15 days.

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/am_ir ... _60E_8.gif
http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/am_ir ... _60E_1.gif
http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/tm_order.gif

Once the wave gets east of the Dateline we should begin to see the jet break through across the pacific, developing an Aleutian low and forcing the Ridge (which right now is near 150 W) eastward to about 120 W ending the PNA positive. As this happens the trough will progress eastward out of the western US into the central US over the next week and into the east by the last two weeks of the month as the MJO reaches the central tropical PAC.

I don’t know why some think that a STRONG omega ridge near 150 W qualifies as a +PNA pattern b/c it does not. When one has the ridge in the position it is characteristic of a –EPO. As you can tell from the EPO verification; it has been averaging STRONGLY negative in response to that ridge.



And the PNA of course has been negative as well since the trough is along the west coast.



The majority of the data including the 12z GFS ensembles, Operational ECMWF out to D 10 and GGEM ensembles supports these changes.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSC ... z/f240.gif
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10812.html

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/ecmwf12zfri.bmp

What does it mean?

1) Storm track shifts eastward w/ time.
2) PNA goes positive and perhaps strongly so depending on the amplitude of the ridge.
3) MAJOR arctic outbreak possible Down the Plains into the EUS over the next week or two.
4) Increasing threat of a significant east coast event as the SE ridge is shoved eastward into the Atlantic.
5) AO/NAO trend downward at the very least.
6) PAC NW warms up and dries out.

Here are the ensemble forecasts for the NAO, PNA and AO over the next 15 days. BUT FIRST be aware of the fact that the GFS ensembles have been doing a poor job w/ these teleconnections for quite awhile.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

IF I lived in the PAC NW or in the west I would be enjoying the winter weather while its lasts b/c it’s coming to an end over the next two weeks. For the east, just hang in there the change is almost here.

Also of note, the warm pool is intensifying in the GOA and increasing in spatial coverage and were beginning to see the development of a cold/warm pool couplet from west to east across the NPAC basin. This is favorable for a mainly +PNA pattern and enhanced Aleutian low. Similar to--- but not yet to the extent of 1987, 1993, 2002.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/sais ... _gl_sd.gif

[yoda]

Excellent post Wxguy25.

Two questions I have:

1.) Is it possible to have a +PNA and a +NAO at the same time?
2.) Are the NAO and AO related, and if so, how so?

Thanks,

Matt

[stormman]

similar to 87 or 93 would be nice, but forget 2002, or did you mean 03?

[wxguy25]

Excellent post Wxguy25.

Two questions I have:

1.) Is it possible to have a +PNA and a +NAO at the same time?

Yes.

2.) Are the NAO and AO related, and if so, how so?

Partially related.

[wxguy25]

similar to 87 or 93 would be nice, but forget 2002, or did you mean 03?

2002-03. But not as significant as that cool/warm couplet was.

[stormman]

I know its going to turn cold next weekend, but im worried it will just be cold and dry next week, do you see any chance for any decent storm development along the east coast next week?

[yoda]

I know its going to turn cold next weekend, but im worried it will just be cold and dry next week, do you see any chance for any decent storm development along the east coast next week?

I see some potential... but not until after Jan 18...

[wxguy25]

New 12z ECMWF is out on the PSC site. Still +PNA pattern developing Mid Month w/ trough progressing eastward BUT the NAO remains positive. SO just how cold it gets remains to be seen.

I know its going to turn cold next weekend, but im worried it will just be cold and dry next week, do you see any chance for any decent storm development along the east coast next week?

The pattern looks INCREASINGLY favorable mid-month and beyond until the MJO reloads in Early FEB.

[stormman]

sounds very good, one more question, you say it looks increasingly favorable until the mjo reloads in early feb. What will happen once the mjo reloads?

[wxguy25]

Another pattern reversal.

[stormman]

well that sucks, so what just a couple weeks of winter, then back to the mild weather.

[wxguy25]

well that sucks, so what just a couple weeks of winter, then back to the mild weather.

Well, I look at it this way; when you don't have a defined ENSO signal, You look to the N PAC and Atlantic Signals to give you insight as to how the pattern will unfold. IF those aren't particularly reliable then you go the SOI and MJO for guidance providing that the MJO cycles are normal. if not then things really slump down into a state of chaos. Basically when you dont have an overpowering signal in the Atlantic or PAC just about anything can happen. You take it one day at a time.

IF the ECMWF is correct the NAO should remain positive through the 20th. BUT the SSTA setup in the N PAC is becoming more favorable for a recurring +PNA pattern so this could be a place to start looking for some consistently down the road.

I'm also watching the WRN equatorial PAC near 180W / new Guinea for a better idea as to how the pattern will unfold the rest of the month.

[wxguy25]

Only thing is my PAC Northwest and plains snow weenies will be disappointed w/ the coming pattern change.

[Wnghs2007]

Cold and Dry just like December then back to upper 70's. This has truely been the worst winter of my life. Had my hopes high, but there gone.

[wxguy25]

Cold and Dry just like December then back to upper 70's. This has truely been the worst winter of my life. Had my hopes high, but there gone.

At least I'm able to keep my winter-tan going LOL!!

[jkt21787]

Great discussion wxguy. So far looks like a cold and dry change for my area, but maybe a system or two could get in and bring another winter event (preferably snow). Too bad another pattern reversal may be coming by Feb. If the PNA goes positive and NAO goes negative, that could help things a lot, and the trends are encouraging.

On a related note, one the TV stations here did a story a few days back on the wild temperature swings in this area, and mentioned the PNA and NAO and their effects.
There is a link to a video here: http://www.abc24.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=DF8A1594-314A-403F-B8C6-38937D712706

[JenyEliza]

Cold and Dry just like December then back to upper 70's. This has truely been the worst winter of my life. Had my hopes high, but there gone.

At least I'm able to keep my winter-tan going LOL!!

Narcissist (and sadist and meanie)! (j/k)

[JenyEliza]

Cold and Dry just like December then back to upper 70's. This has truely been the worst winter of my life. Had my hopes high, but there gone.

Pretty much is shaping up that we got two weeks of winter in December. Two weeks in late January/early February, and then it's spring (which basically starts in March around here). That is, unless we have another March 13, 1993 surprise mass dumpage of snow!

See...there is hope. Small. Slim. Virtually NIL chances. But hope, nonetheless!

Jeny

[Brent]

Cold and Dry just like December then back to upper 70's. This has truely been the worst winter of my life. Had my hopes high, but there gone.

We're going to Gatlinburg in the Smokies Jan. 22nd-25th, so I'm pretty certain I'll see man-made snow and I'm hoping for the real thing.

[wxguy25]

Cold and Dry just like December then back to upper 70's. This has truely been the worst winter of my life. Had my hopes high, but there gone.

At least I'm able to keep my winter-tan going LOL!!

Narcissist (and sadist and meanie)! (j/k)

And cheap also since I don't have to spend the money this year for a tanning bed. LOL!!