MJO coming and it will.....

[wxguy25]

Great discussion wxguy. So far looks like a cold and dry change for my area, but maybe a system or two could get in and bring another winter event (preferably snow). Too bad another pattern reversal may be coming by Feb. If the PNA goes positive and NAO goes negative, that could help things a lot, and the trends are encouraging.

On a related note, one the TV stations here did a story a few days back on the wild temperature swings in this area, and mentioned the PNA and NAO and their effects.
There is a link to a video here: http://www.abc24.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=DF8A1594-314A-403F-B8C6-38937D712706

the PNA is going to go positive but w/ the NAO positive also and the PV over Greenland (extreme position for it and suggestive of a STRONG +NAO) Im not sure how much cold air gets involved in the pattern. Will it be colder ? Absolutely but w/o the PV over Canada I don't see how anything HISTORIC or SEVERE is going to occur.

[Wnghs2007]

Cold and Dry just like December then back to upper 70's. This has truely been the worst winter of my life. Had my hopes high, but there gone.

At least I'm able to keep my winter-tan going LOL!!

Narcissist (and sadist and meanie)! (j/k)

And cheap also since I don't have to spend the money this year for a tanning bed. LOL!!

You are EVIL!!!!

[wxguy25]

And while I'm confident that the east coast will see a major winter storm either later this month or In FEB...I will remind those folks that not every winter is going to be or for that matter can be an historic one. its just reality.

I'm not saying this "because I live in Florida" as one poster suggested awhile ago. it is the way things go. Some years timing is perfect and the pattern is great in other years timing sucks as does the pattern. I don't seek to get anyone's hopes up or forecast snow just for the heck of it as some do. -removed- does little for anyone b/c if something is not going to happen...its not going to happen--- end of story.

[Wnghs2007]

And while I'm confident that the east coast will see a major winter storm either later this month or In FEB...I will remind those folks that not every winter is going to be or for that matter can be an historic one. its just reality.

I'm not saying this "because I live in Florida" as one poster suggested awhile ago. it is the way things go. Some years timing is perfect and the pattern is great in other years timing sucks as does the pattern. I don't seek to get anyone's hopes up or forecast snow just for the heck of it as some do. -removed- does little for anyone b/c if something is not going to happen...its not going to happen--- end of story.

Edited

[wxguy25]

KC, this is my discussion, my thread. Anyway let me clarify one more time what I mean WRT the MJO in FEB. I was talking about a possible short reversal in EARLY FEB as the MJO reloads. The next MJO would do the same thing as this one will for the last two weeks of this month in MId or Late FEB. Thus the term "re-loading" Thats what I was talking about.

[wxguy25]

[quote="Wnghs2007

Dont let the dark side draw you over....let the light of HM guide your ways.[/quote]

I can use my own light to guide myself. I dont need anyone else to provide it for me.

So far my JAN outlook is working out great and the MJO is arriving right on time to bring about the reversal I spoke of when I wrote the discussion back in late DEC. IF ** The NAO turns negative the last two weeks It would make it even better.

[Wnghs2007]

KC, this is my discussion, my thread.

Check the post....

[weatherlover427]

What does this mean for southern California?

[wxguy25]

What does this mean for southern California?

Warming and drier.

[ChiTownMC]

So Chicago will probably see colder and drier weather.

[sertorius]

Hey wxguy25:

I am a central plains snow weenie!!!! but I promise I'm not going to give you any grief!!! I have posted my thoughts in the central plains thread and will post something else there shortly. I am so obssesed with this event and arctic passage on Wed. becuase I know this is my last chance of a significant event for the next 2-3 weeks-temps. will be seasonal but it will be pretty dry unless the stj can cook something up-we have had some good snows in the past with this pattern that is evolving, but it is not very likely!! If I don't get much this week, and it looks like I won't, then I am back to December and will wait till Feb. when we can squeak out another week of winter weather. But hey, like I've said, i don't live in a winter wonderland-to have a week or more sustained cold is quite rare but, even in the south west flow aloft, we have managed to stay below freezing for almost 5 days and keep are "ice" pack in place for 4 days. Therefore, I can't really complain at all-I am just greedy and want to see one really good snow this winter-so far I have 9 inches of snow, 1 inch of sleet and 1 inch of ice. We shall see what happens. Thanks again for all your information-i have learned alot from your posts and appreciate you taking the time to post the info. Have a great night and congrads on a look out that is very close to verifying!!!

[weatherlover427]

What does this mean for southern California?

Warming and drier.

Not what I wanted to hear. Do you think we will get the trough back at all this winter or is this it as far as our winter weather goes for this season?

[wxguy25]

Hey wxguy25:

I am a central plains snow weenie!!!! but I promise I'm not going to give you any grief!!! I have posted my thoughts in the central plains thread and will post something else there shortly. I am so obssesed with this event and arctic passage on Wed. becuase I know this is my last chance of a significant event for the next 2-3 weeks-temps. will be seasonal but it will be pretty dry unless the stj can cook something up-we have had some good snows in the past with this pattern that is evolving, but it is not very likely!! If I don't get much this week, and it looks like I won't, then I am back to December and will wait till Feb. when we can squeak out another week of winter weather. But hey, like I've said, i don't live in a winter wonderland-to have a week or more sustained cold is quite rare but, even in the south west flow aloft, we have managed to stay below freezing for almost 5 days and keep are "ice" pack in place for 4 days. Therefore, I can't really complain at all-I am just greedy and want to see one really good snow this winter-so far I have 9 inches of snow, 1 inch of sleet and 1 inch of ice. We shall see what happens. Thanks again for all your information-i have learned alot from your posts and appreciate you taking the time to post the info. Have a great night and congrads on a look out that is very close to verifying!!!

LOL Awesome; and thank you VERY much for the kind words. One of the reasons why you have been below freezing in spite of the SW flow aloft has been the snowpack. w/o that things may have been different.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif

[wxguy25]

What does this mean for southern California?

Warming and drier.

Not what I wanted to hear. Do you think we will get the trough back at all this winter or is this it as far as our winter weather goes for this season?

No it may come back from time to time. there is no real clearly defined global signal shaping the pattern over the western hemisphere so things are going to be variable w/ each MJO passage.

[sertorius]

wxguy25:

Not to keep you tied up, but that is exactly the reason-I didn't even make it above freezing today-prob. will tomorrow, but with the south east winds comming over all the ice in southern kansas, we have been cloudy. I am really curious about this week though-the eta has come in so much colder on the surface than the gfs and has had this solution for the past 2 days w/out wavering. I'm wondering if maybe it has picked up on the snow pack?? Our NWS has now said that the warm front will not clear my area-that is a huge difference from yesterday and if it is colder (I mean Monday the eta has us in the lower 20's!!!!) it could have significant affects on precip. for Tuesday and Wednesday. Just something to keep an eye on and the one of the reasons I'm paying attention to this situation. Oh well-time will tell. Thanks again

[Chris the Weather Man]

Excellent post Wxguy25.

Two questions I have:

1.) Is it possible to have a +PNA and a +NAO at the same time?
2.) Are the NAO and AO related, and if so, how so?

Thanks,

Matt

1993-1994 had a +NAO, and a +PNA........ And Boston still got 96 inches of snow during that winter...

I would love to get a Weak La Nina (1995-1996)

[Stormsfury]

Excellent post Wxguy25.

Two questions I have:

1.) Is it possible to have a +PNA and a +NAO at the same time?
2.) Are the NAO and AO related, and if so, how so?

Thanks,

Matt

1993-1994 had a +NAO, and a +PNA........ And Boston still got 96 inches of snow during that winter...

I would love to get a Weak La Nina (1995-1996)

Ah, that winter .. some brutally cold outbreaks, even well into the Deep South, again, enhanced by a good snowpack across a good portion of the US. The principal storm track that year ensured that BOX got crushed. The state of ENSO was relatively neutral to weak El Niño, much like currently.

D10 EC has me a bit concerned with the PV well up in W Greenland with an extension low over E Greenland ... but looking at the overall pattern leads me to believe that the s/w on that map (off of the CA coast and with an Eastern trough in place) could be the beginnings of something significant down the road ... the PV itself isn't exactly in a location (IOW, not too far south) that would be able to squelch out s/w energy in the confluece zone as easily and if rightly timed, mayhem on the Eastern Seaboard.

This warm January start in CHS has actually been a blessing to some degree (wearing shorts while the rest of my jeans are dirty and need washing..done) WRT to getting over sinus issues, and other things. But all good things eventually come to an end ....

Nice snowpack too ...

SF

[KWT]

I don't know if this affects ou lot at all but the AO is set to go negative...so I wouldn't rule out the NAO at least going to neutral,although i suspect it'll stay positive.

[donsutherland1]

Great post, Wxguy25. You did a terrific job in laying out how things are evolving.

[donsutherland1]

Yoda,

FWIW, there were also a number of seasons where the PNA averaged + during the December-March period and the NAO also averaged +. Five such winters included:

Code: Select all

Season    PNA     NAO
1982-83   1.500   0.500
1985-86   1.225   0.650
1960-61   1.025   0.425
1980-81   0.975   0.300
1991-92   0.925   0.300


For parts of the East Coast, 1960-61 and 1982-83 saw above to much above normal snowfall, not to mention at least one memorable blizzard. 1980-81 and 1991-92 proved relatively snowless in the Mid-Atlantic but 12/25/1980 saw extreme cold.