Possible severe weather for Midsouth/Southeast Wed-Thu

[ALhurricane]

I originally posted this in the Winter Weather forum then realized it may be more appropriate here. Sorry moderators, I don't mean to double post.


Models continue to be in fairly good agreement about a severe weather risk across the southeastern portion of the country. These areas will warm up a great deal with WSW-SW flow aloft and a southerly flow at the surface which will allow the Gulf to be wide open for business.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

This is the 12z GFS run. It has been fairly consistent with the timing of the front and other models generally agree. The region will come under the right rear quadrant of a 110kt jet...a 50-60 kt low level jet with a good 850mb thermal ridge..and a shortwave that becomes negatively tilted as it phases with the northern branch. It will all depend on how much cloud cover is over the warm sector (this affects the instability.) However, 700-500mb lapse rates are shown to reach up toward 7C/km wednesday night into thursday. Definitely a good possibility of a squall line developing with possible discrete supercells out ahead of it. As always, things may change with time, but the potential is certainly there.

[Wnghs2007]

How far east do you expect the strongest stuff to make it as you see right now. I know a lot can change.