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Wnghs2007
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For JenyEliza

#1 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:08 pm

This is from FFC discussion tonight

FFC FORECASTING OFFICE wrote:AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...WHICH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAN SOMETIMES YIELD WINTER
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.


Well its a long way away and there using the godforsaken GFS but atleast its something.
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#2 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:14 pm

Why the hell would they use the GFS?!
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#3 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:17 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:Why the hell would they use the GFS?!


Beats me...seems almost every NWS office does.
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#4 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:18 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
Chris the Weather Man wrote:Why the hell would they use the GFS?!


Beats me...seems almost every NWS office does.



Well, we know better than to use that...
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#5 Postby wxguy25 » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:19 pm

Doesn't matter. Most of the rest of trhe data supports this.
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#6 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:23 pm

You're right.... But even in my office, Upton NY, All I hear is GFS, GFS, GFS, ( I keep saying to myself "Why in the hell are they using that damn model in the Mid-range, long range") It makes me feel like that I should say something.......
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#7 Postby wxguy25 » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:26 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:You're right.... But even in my office, Upton NY, All I hear is GFS, GFS, GFS, ( I keep saying to myself "Why in the hell are they using that damn model in the Mid-range, long range") It makes me feel like that I should say something.......


Morris county is covered by PHL/Mount Holly.
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#8 Postby W13 » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:35 pm

They mainly only use GFS and the ETA at the Seattle NWS, but occasionally they do mix in the Euro and Canadian models.
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#9 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:41 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
Chris the Weather Man wrote:You're right.... But even in my office, Upton NY, All I hear is GFS, GFS, GFS, ( I keep saying to myself "Why in the hell are they using that damn model in the Mid-range, long range") It makes me feel like that I should say something.......


Morris county is covered by PHL/Mount Holly.


Yeah, But I look at Upton too.... Mt. Holly, they are even worst than Upton....
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#10 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 08, 2005 10:51 pm

:woo:
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Re: For JenyEliza

#11 Postby JenyEliza » Sat Jan 08, 2005 11:16 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:This is from FFC discussion tonight

FFC FORECASTING OFFICE wrote:AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WHICH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAN SOMETIMES YIELD WINTER PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.


Well its a long way away and there using the godforsaken GFS but atleast its something.


SCHWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET!! :cheesy:

See....I told you there was some hope! ;)

Jeny
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#12 Postby JenyEliza » Sat Jan 08, 2005 11:23 pm

Also from the Peachtree City discussion:

THE GFS HAS THE 0F LINE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO N GA SUN MORNING. IF SO...WE COULD SEE OUR LOWEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SO FAR NEXT WEEKEND...EVEN EXCEEDING THE LOW TEMPERATURES WE SAW JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS PREVIOUS EXPERIENCES HAVE SHOWN THAT THE GFS FREQUENTLY EXAGGERATES THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND PREVIOUS RUNS USUALLY CONFIRM THIS. AT ANY RATE...IT CERTAINLY WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE THU-EARLY FRI.


Then comes the bit you posted....
AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...WHICH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAN SOMETIMES YIELD WINTER PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.


So, it appears that PTC realizes that GFS doesn't always do a very good job with this kind of weather, and they're a bit dubious right now. We'll have to watch and see.

At least they didn't give us a "bear watch". :cheesy:

Jeny
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