Tuesday through Thursday of this upcoming week looks interesting. Although all models show a progressive pattern change, the transition could be messy for the Pacific Northwest. As of now, a brief bout of arctic air could affect Western Washington starting Tuesday night, once a front drops down from British Columbia. There seems to be ALOT of cold air behind this front, but it doesn't seem a majority of that airmass will make it west of the cascades. For now, it does look like the north interior will see the brunt of it, but all places are still on the "fringe" line for lowland snow. Unfortunately, there's very little precip with this front and no surface low off the Washington coast. We'll have to wait and see...I'm VERY interested in reading the afternoon NWS discussion.
Anthony
Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
R-Dub,
I'm not good at reading the forecast models...that's why I miss Brennan and Snow_Wizzard so much!! lol. Latest Komo 4 discussion briefly mentions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning...they say snow level lower than 500 feet and at the surface in the PSCZ. I hope for that PSCZ because Mukilteo usually feels the full brunt of it. They then say a very cold pattern emerges from Wednesday through Saturday morning...afternoon high temperatures in the mid-upper 30s (in Seattle metro) and overnight lows in the low 20s (Seattle metro). Can you imagine Bellingham?! After that, they say a SLOW transition to a milder/wetter pattern beginning Sunday through all of next week. One more shot of arctic air...it better be good because that might be it for winter!!! lol.
Anthony
I'm not good at reading the forecast models...that's why I miss Brennan and Snow_Wizzard so much!! lol. Latest Komo 4 discussion briefly mentions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning...they say snow level lower than 500 feet and at the surface in the PSCZ. I hope for that PSCZ because Mukilteo usually feels the full brunt of it. They then say a very cold pattern emerges from Wednesday through Saturday morning...afternoon high temperatures in the mid-upper 30s (in Seattle metro) and overnight lows in the low 20s (Seattle metro). Can you imagine Bellingham?! After that, they say a SLOW transition to a milder/wetter pattern beginning Sunday through all of next week. One more shot of arctic air...it better be good because that might be it for winter!!! lol.
Anthony
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R-Dub,
One last thing. Remember that the GFS OVERDOES cold, arctic air in Western Washington. For cold weather, always trust the European models. They seem to handle the pattern better. So although the latest GFS shows bitterly cold weather for Western Washington, I wouldn't jump the bandwagon just yet. Hope that helps.
Anthony
One last thing. Remember that the GFS OVERDOES cold, arctic air in Western Washington. For cold weather, always trust the European models. They seem to handle the pattern better. So although the latest GFS shows bitterly cold weather for Western Washington, I wouldn't jump the bandwagon just yet. Hope that helps.
Anthony
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Yeah I wish there was a way to get a hold of them! Miss them 
I am not very good also at reading models, but what I do know it looks cold to me! Not above freezing up our way, that is for sure. Hopefully we get a shot of snow so things stay covered. I think the snow we have right now will be on the ground through tuesday, maybe it stays all week.
I am not very good also at reading models, but what I do know it looks cold to me! Not above freezing up our way, that is for sure. Hopefully we get a shot of snow so things stay covered. I think the snow we have right now will be on the ground through tuesday, maybe it stays all week.
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Another insignificant NWS discussion...this Kam person doesn't do a good job. He finally mentions the possibility of a lowland PSCZ snowstorm. There are many factors that must come together before that happens. As for tonight, a chance of snow...maybe an inch of accumulation, but nothing significant. But remember, they said the same thing last night and we awoke to almost three inches of snow!! lol. Not alot of moisture associated with the surface low. Looks like a possible high wind event for Snohomish County Tuesday night...though they mentioned this before with the last front that came down from BC. Doesn't look very promising. Hopefully Kam won't update the night discussion. He's very brief and plainly stinks at it!! lol. All in all, a cool/cold pattern through Saturday of next weekend...high temperatures 30-40, low temperatures 15-25. Sounds like winter!!!
Anthony
Anthony
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Currently 36 F with a Dew Point of 34 F, also of 3:42 PM
Anyone know if this moisture on the Oregon Radar will make it to the Seattle/Tacoma area?
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=RTX®ion=a1&lat=45.49828720&lon=-122.69132233&label=Portland%2c%20OR
Anyone know if this moisture on the Oregon Radar will make it to the Seattle/Tacoma area?
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=RTX®ion=a1&lat=45.49828720&lon=-122.69132233&label=Portland%2c%20OR
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Currently 36 F with a Dew Point of 34 F, also of 3:42 PM
Anyone know if this moisture on the Oregon Radar will make it to the Seattle/Tacoma area?
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=RTX®ion=a1&lat=45.49828720&lon=-122.69132233&label=Portland%2c%20OR
Anyone know if this moisture on the Oregon Radar will make it to the Seattle/Tacoma area?
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=RTX®ion=a1&lat=45.49828720&lon=-122.69132233&label=Portland%2c%20OR
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TT-SEA
O.K. guys... we changed plans today and went skiing at Snoqualmie Summit. It is quite a challenge with three-year old boys... but they love it.
No snow left here in North Bend when we got back... sun is shining brightly.
But... I see from web cams that this hole in the clouds is not over all of Western Washington. It looks like the snow cover is producing its own clouds and low-level moisture to our northwest. Oh well... we played in lots of snow all day long.
Anyways... just checked the 18Z run of the ETA and I think someone is going to get clobbered by a convergence zone snowfall Tueday night. The latest run is farther west and has more precipitation than before. I have a tough time telling between snow or rain on the models but it looks like snow to me. That means a convergence zone could start in the North Sound and work its way all the way down to I-90 and could dump some heavy snow. I think south of there it will more likely just be rain with the front. The convergence zone has a tough time getting farther south than I-90 usually.
This could be very interesting. Convergence zones are very unpredictable. That means it could form and stay in one spot... could be all rain... or could produce some serious snowfall totals.
Fun to watch!!
No snow left here in North Bend when we got back... sun is shining brightly.
But... I see from web cams that this hole in the clouds is not over all of Western Washington. It looks like the snow cover is producing its own clouds and low-level moisture to our northwest. Oh well... we played in lots of snow all day long.
Anyways... just checked the 18Z run of the ETA and I think someone is going to get clobbered by a convergence zone snowfall Tueday night. The latest run is farther west and has more precipitation than before. I have a tough time telling between snow or rain on the models but it looks like snow to me. That means a convergence zone could start in the North Sound and work its way all the way down to I-90 and could dump some heavy snow. I think south of there it will more likely just be rain with the front. The convergence zone has a tough time getting farther south than I-90 usually.
This could be very interesting. Convergence zones are very unpredictable. That means it could form and stay in one spot... could be all rain... or could produce some serious snowfall totals.
Fun to watch!!
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Sounds like fun TT, and I hope you are right about the convergence zone, snow and cold means I get an extended vacation 
Currently here in Stanwood its mostly cloudy and 30.8 degrees. If it clears out, its going to be a cold one tonight
Snow still covers everything here, still even in the trees!
Currently here in Stanwood its mostly cloudy and 30.8 degrees. If it clears out, its going to be a cold one tonight
Snow still covers everything here, still even in the trees!
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krysof
I pray we see more snow tonight. As of now, there's a band of precip moving north from Oregon, but with the surface low moving south, alot of that moisture will fizzle before it makes it north into the central Puget Sound. But there's still a chance tonight...I would say 40 percent. The Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame also looks interesting. Models are leaning toward a colder solution for Western Washington Wednesday through Saturday. We're not done with lowland snow just yet.
Anthony
Anthony
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TT-SEA
Can anyone tell the predicted "thickness" for Tuesday night.
I have no idea what it is... but I know it needs to be below 1305 for snow.
This may be our key to unlocking the Tuesday event. The models show lots of precipitation. In what form??
I have no idea what it is... but I know it needs to be below 1305 for snow.
This may be our key to unlocking the Tuesday event. The models show lots of precipitation. In what form??
Last edited by TT-SEA on Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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