For MY Florida, SE US folks. Your pattern change IS COMING

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
wxguy25
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 708
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:44 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

For MY Florida, SE US folks. Your pattern change IS COMING

#1 Postby wxguy25 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:25 pm

First off I'm NOT going to complain about the warm pattern b/c as much as I would LOVE to see snow I also enjoy being able to keep up w/ my winter tan; so for that reason---a continuation of this warm spring like pattern would be welcomed (by me as I await some "wxguy is Anti-snow" remarks to begin flying about the thread)

However much to the elation of my southern snow weenies the warm pattern for the GULF COAST states that has allowed me to keep my golden, gorgeous tan flowing through the First week of January is about to come to an END.

First of all WHY has it been so warm in FL? Look no further than the large scale pattern over North America. A strong Omega ridge has been in place near 150 W longitude over the first 5 days of the month. As a result simple wave physics tells us that there MUST be a trough downstream of it over the Western US and yet another ridge amplification over the eastern US in response to that trough. This is called a RNA (or –PNA) pattern.

Here are composite 500mb height anomalies for the first 5 days of JAN in correlation w/ a strongly –PNA / +NAO pattern (PNA < -0.9, NAO > +1.0) and compare that to the first 5 days of this month.

Image

Image

Notice the strong ridge over the central and eastern US. The flow around the ridge has transported warm air northward as evidenced by 850mb temperature anomalies averaged over the first 5 days of the month.

Image

Also b/c of the ridge over the EUS the mean position of the jet the first 5 days has been VERY far to the North---running from the SW us to the Great lakes region and New England keeping MOST of the storminess away from Florida.

Image

Will this last a lot longer? NO…infact it’s coming to an abrupt end by the end of this week as a strong low develops over the Midwest and pushes a cold front across the Gulf coast states. Another wave may try to develop along the front near the East coast, BUT how much of any effect this will have remains to be seen (DON’T trust the GFS for the details on this---its like an ex-wife…starts out great then ends up screwing you in the end).

The low will phase w/ some PJ/AJ energy as it moves into central Canada developing LARGE / COLD PV near Hudson Bay by D5-6, sending a pretty decent arctic outbreak southeastward from the Plains into the OV and EUS D6 and 7.

This as the trough comes back into the EUS and the PNA goes positive.

Image
Image

Image

This pattern change is in response to the latest MJO now approaching the dateline and SHOULD last through the remainder of the month.

Wild card will continue to be the NAO, which if allowed to go STRONGLY negative could force severe amplification of the trough over the EUS and anomalous southward displacement of the PV. IF this were to happen, it would lead to an extremely cold end to the Month across the Northeast; and Snow potential further south given the fact that the storm track would get shoved VERY far to the south.

SO gulf coast, Southeast and FL folks, DON’T fret, the warm pattern is just about GONE. For the time being.
Last edited by wxguy25 on Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chris the Weather Man
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 746
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:49 pm
Location: NJ

#2 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:36 pm

Remarkable Post.
0 likes   

weatherlover427

#3 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:39 pm

Despicable post. There goes the rest of our winter... :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
0 likes   

User avatar
Chris the Weather Man
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 746
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:49 pm
Location: NJ

#4 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:40 pm

I would love to be in Lake Tahoe..... They got over 6 feet of snow.....
0 likes   

User avatar
wxguy25
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 708
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:44 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

#5 Postby wxguy25 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:44 pm

Joshua21Young wrote:Despicable post. There goes the rest of our winter... :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:


The rest of the month? perhaps; but I dont know about the rest of your winter out west.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#6 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:48 pm

Great news!! Hopefully we can enjoy some nice cool weather in the weeks ahead!!
0 likes   

User avatar
wxguy25
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 708
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:44 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

#7 Postby wxguy25 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:00 pm

Scorpion wrote:Great news!! Hopefully we can enjoy some nice cool weather in the weeks ahead!!


it will be coolder than what it has been at the very least. Such as No more Upper 70s and 80s north of a line from Tampa to MCO to the Space coast beginnig SAT.
0 likes   

User avatar
JenyEliza
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1529
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:07 pm
Location: Metro ATL

#8 Postby JenyEliza » Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:30 pm

Where's the Snow Fairy sprinkling snow across our warm, warm lands? ;) :cheesy:

Jeny

PS, Wxguy...you ought to post a pic so we can see that golden brown tan of yours! ;)
0 likes   

User avatar
wxguy25
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 708
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:44 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

#9 Postby wxguy25 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:34 pm

here is the New D8-10 ecmwf for your viewing pleasure (or displeasure if you live in the west and want snow)

Image

JenyEliza wrote:Where's the Snow Fairy sprinkling snow across our warm, warm lands? ;) :cheesy:

Jeny

PS, Wxguy...you ought to post a pic so we can see that golden brown tan of yours! ;)



Some day...
0 likes   

User avatar
JenyEliza
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1529
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:07 pm
Location: Metro ATL

#10 Postby JenyEliza » Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:36 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
JenyEliza wrote:Where's the Snow Fairy sprinkling snow across our warm, warm lands? ;) :cheesy:

Jeny

PS, Wxguy...you ought to post a pic so we can see that golden brown tan of yours! ;)



Some day...


Tease! ;)
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#11 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:47 pm

wxguy25 wrote:here is the New D8-10 ecmwf for your viewing pleasure (or displeasure if you live in the west and want snow)

Image

JenyEliza wrote:Where's the Snow Fairy sprinkling snow across our warm, warm lands? ;) :cheesy:

Jeny

PS, Wxguy...you ought to post a pic so we can see that golden brown tan of yours! ;)



Some day...


:woo:

Love that map.

BRING IT ON!

:slime:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Chris the Weather Man
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 746
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:49 pm
Location: NJ

#12 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:51 pm

The only downside I see on that map is the PV......... But what really matters is if we get a -NAO... The PV looks a tad north, from its classic location....
0 likes   

User avatar
wxguy25
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 708
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:44 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

#13 Postby wxguy25 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:01 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:The only downside I see on that map is the PV......... But what really matters is if we get a -NAO... The PV looks a tad north, from its classic location....


the BEST position for the PV when looking for a Major east coast snowstorm is Hudson bay at climo intensity. Just strong enough to drive s/w energy southward BUT not to the point that the energy gets sheared apart.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chris the Weather Man
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 746
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:49 pm
Location: NJ

#14 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:04 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
Chris the Weather Man wrote:The only downside I see on that map is the PV......... But what really matters is if we get a -NAO... The PV looks a tad north, from its classic location....


the BEST position for the PV when looking for a Major east coast snowstorm is Hudson bay at climo intensity. Just strong enough to drive s/w energy southward BUT not to the point that the energy gets sheared apart.



Yep. That's is the reason why I am expressing my concern.... but As long as we get the -NAO, then no worries....
0 likes   

User avatar
wxguy25
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 708
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:44 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

#15 Postby wxguy25 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:06 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
Chris the Weather Man wrote:The only downside I see on that map is the PV......... But what really matters is if we get a -NAO... The PV looks a tad north, from its classic location....


the BEST position for the PV when looking for a Major east coast snowstorm is Hudson bay at climo intensity. Just strong enough to drive s/w energy southward BUT not to the point that the energy gets sheared apart.



Yep. That's is the reason why I am expressing my concern.... but As long as we get the -NAO, then no worries....


Well just b/c everything is not in perfect does NOT mean that it cannot happen, but it is much harder to get a major east coast snowstorm w/o a 50-50 low and -NAO. Remember SIMPLE PATTERNS are the most favorable.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chris the Weather Man
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 746
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:49 pm
Location: NJ

#16 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:08 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
Chris the Weather Man wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
Chris the Weather Man wrote:The only downside I see on that map is the PV......... But what really matters is if we get a -NAO... The PV looks a tad north, from its classic location....


the BEST position for the PV when looking for a Major east coast snowstorm is Hudson bay at climo intensity. Just strong enough to drive s/w energy southward BUT not to the point that the energy gets sheared apart.



Yep. That's is the reason why I am expressing my concern.... but As long as we get the -NAO, then no worries....


Well just b/c everything is not in perfect does NOT mean that it cannot happen, but it is much harder to get a major east coast snowstorm w/o a 50-50 low and -NAO. Remember SIMPLE PATTERNS are the most favorable.


I agree with you on that 100%
0 likes   

Burn1
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 211
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:13 pm

#17 Postby Burn1 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:11 pm

Like your post.....

I would say this will not be a dramatic cold event for FL, or at least
S FL..........Maybe a little below normal, then quickly back to normal...

I just don't see the energy to drive significant cold this far south!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#18 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:11 pm

Well just b/c everything is not in perfect does NOT mean that it cannot happen, but it is much harder to get a major east coast snowstorm w/o a 50-50 low and -NAO. Remember SIMPLE PATTERNS are the most favorable.


Which is why there were a lot of disappointments WRT to the Dec 25th-26th, 2004 event which mainly stayed south, and even produced a historic S TX snowstorm ... but w/out a 50/50 (-NAO)... the storm raced out to sea ...

SF
0 likes   

User avatar
Chris the Weather Man
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 746
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:49 pm
Location: NJ

#19 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:17 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Well just b/c everything is not in perfect does NOT mean that it cannot happen, but it is much harder to get a major east coast snowstorm w/o a 50-50 low and -NAO. Remember SIMPLE PATTERNS are the most favorable.


Which is why there were a lot of disappointments WRT to the Dec 25th-26th, 2004 event which mainly stayed south, and even produced a historic S TX snowstorm ... but w/out a 50/50 (-NAO)... the storm raced out to sea ...

SF



SF, Agree.....
0 likes   

User avatar
wxguy25
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 708
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:44 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

#20 Postby wxguy25 » Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:21 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:
Well just b/c everything is not in perfect does NOT mean that it cannot happen, but it is much harder to get a major east coast snowstorm w/o a 50-50 low and -NAO. Remember SIMPLE PATTERNS are the most favorable.


Which is why there were a lot of disappointments WRT to the Dec 25th-26th, 2004 event which mainly stayed south, and even produced a historic S TX snowstorm ... but w/out a 50/50 (-NAO)... the storm raced out to sea ...

SF
SF, Agree.....


And the other Early DEC event.

BUT there were others like FEB 2001 (Inland NE) that occurred during a +NAO and JAN 2000 which had a -NAO displaced eastward near Ireland but No 50-50 low. Those were the exceptions I'm referencing.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests