OMG...my ULCER is KILLING me, tell me it ain't SO?

[azsnowman]

"IF" this system IS ALL rain, I'm in DEEEEEEEEEEP you know what!

PECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SUN JAN 09 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-101300-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN COCONINO CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS 264 NORTH-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
330 PM MST SUN JAN 09 2005

...A MOIST WINTER STORM TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY..

A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER MUCH OF COCONINO AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE 8000 FEET AND WILL BE HEAVY
OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 6500 TO 7000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING...FALLING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TO BELOW 5000 FEET BY
LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000
FEET. RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE HEAVY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA AND NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTIES...WHERE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF...OR YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER PROVIDER FOR THE
LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

Dennis

[JenyEliza]

Just goes to show that one shouldn't count their snow-flakes before they fall. (sorry, couldn't resist).

On the bright side...won't this help out your drought situation a bunch?

Jeny

[azsnowman]

I lost OVER 13" of snowpack JUST today from warm temps, I've still got 18" on the ground however, but IF this system starts out WARM.....

The ground is SUPER saturated as it is, we DO NOT need ANY RAIN, "PLEASE don't let it RAIN!"

Dennis

[azsnowman]

Just goes to show that one shouldn't count their snow-flakes before they fall. (sorry, couldn't resist).

On the bright side...won't this help out your drought situation a bunch?

Jeny

NO.....all it will DO is run off, run downhill to Phoenix and ALL lower elevations....this is a SERIOUS SITUATION here!

Dennis

[JenyEliza]

Just goes to show that one shouldn't count their snow-flakes before they fall. (sorry, couldn't resist).

On the bright side...won't this help out your drought situation a bunch?

Jeny

NO.....all it will DO is run off, run downhill to Phoenix and ALL lower elevations....this is a SERIOUS SITUATION here!

Dennis

Oh man....so sorry. I didn't realize your topography or what rain would mean to you, since I've never been to AZ.

I'll be sending cold vibes your way so that you get frozen stuff, then a slow-ish melt-off of the snow.

Crossing fingers for you!

Jeny

[Stephanie]

Unfortunately the pattern change doesn't favor cold temps in the west like you've been seeing. I hope it is snow for you Dennis!

[krysof]

it would start to favor snow in the east.

[Stephanie]

it would start to favor snow in the east.

The point of this thread is that he's looking at potential flooding and the evaporation of snow that they need to fill the reserviors in AZ.

[JenyEliza]

it would start to favor snow in the east.

The point of this thread is that he's looking at potential flooding and the evaporation of snow that they need to fill the reserviors in AZ.

[krysof]

oh stop

[therock1811]

And just what is that supposed to mean krysof?

All that aside, we're in much the same situation here Dennis. Had a lot of rain last week, with the melted 9-30" snowpack, we are getting SERIOUS flooding here in Cincinnati. God, when will it end???

[Stephanie]

And just what is that supposed to mean krysof?

All that aside, we're in much the same situation here Dennis. Had a lot of rain last week, with the melted 9-30" snowpack, we are getting SERIOUS flooding here in Cincinnati. God, when will it end???

It doesn't mean anything but nonsense. krysof is just looking for a one way ticket out of here.

[Lindaloo]

I agree Steph!!

[therock1811]

OK. I think that they may find it real quick if they keep up.

Hope all goes well Dennis.

[azsnowman]

Ya know.....after the Asian Tsunami, I don't let ANYTHING, "ANYONE" bother me anymore, except the FLOODING of course......I just consider the "source!"

Dennis

BTW....things are NOT looking good, it DOES indeed look like a MAJOR RAIN event *sigh*

[streetsoldier]

Good(?) news here...the Mississippi at New Madrid is expected to crest 7' above flood stage on Wednesday AM, which means the dikes may hold after all...8' or above would cause 100K acres agri-damage.

Note that New Madird gets hit harder than Cape Girardeau, due to its location south of the Mississippi-Ohio confluence. And, Debi works in New Madrid.

[JenyEliza]

Dennis,

How are things out your way tonight? We're seeing CA being hit hard in national news coverage, but not seeing anything from your part of the world.

Got an update?

Stay safe and keep us posted.

Jeny

[gunner1551]

Hope u get snow Dennis. Dont want you to go under. Everybody is getting all around you. I have appoximately 36" on the ground at my house and the snow doesnt look like its going to melt in the coming week. I am going to get hit with a major snow storm plunging down from the Alaska so more snow is on the way -20 temps are focasted for my area. So my snow wont melt. But i agree the situation doesnt look good

[azsnowman]

WELL......so far, so GOOD NO rain OR snow, it's either gone around, headed north or SOMETHING, which is PEACHY KEEN to ME! It's just WINDER than the devil

Dennis

[JenyEliza]

Looks like there's a Snow Advisory in your neck of the woods, Dennis!

See....sending you those cold vibes worked! Now, just need to send the snow down low enough to reach you, and you'll be set (for now) !!

AZZ017-120600-
WHITE MOUNTAINS
400 PM MST TUE JAN 11 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 4 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY. SNOWFALL WILL INTENSIFY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AFTER 800 PM MST...BECOMING OCCASIONALLY HEAVY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SNOW EVENT...CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOME PAGE AT...WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF...OR TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION.