Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

[W13]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.krtx.shtml

Precip still staying fairly organized, and there is a good amount of that has been developing the last few hours. Still slowly tracking North.

[W13]

I will be back in about an hour with another update. Until then, keep watching those radar returns!

[R-Dub]

Wow, that has ZERO information in it

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 845 PM PST SUN JAN 9 2005

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH BREEZY WINDS TO THE NORTH. SUNNY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. &&

.DISCUSSION...VIRTUALLY NO RADAR ECHOES TONIGHT EXCEPT FAR TO THE SOUTH NEAR PORTLAND. HOWEVER NOT GOING TO TAKE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST...NOT AFTER THIS MORNING ANYWAY. STILL...SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG HAS FORMED. TEMPS LOOK CERTAIN TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...INTO THE 20S. NO UPDATES. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES STARTING TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUE NIGHT. BURKE

[R-Dub]

Temp down to 27.2 degrees, and clearing out.

[W13]

Wow, that has ZERO information in it

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 845 PM PST SUN JAN 9 2005

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH BREEZY WINDS TO THE NORTH. SUNNY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. &&

.DISCUSSION...VIRTUALLY NO RADAR ECHOES TONIGHT EXCEPT FAR TO THE SOUTH NEAR PORTLAND. HOWEVER NOT GOING TO TAKE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST...NOT AFTER THIS MORNING ANYWAY. STILL...SOME CLEARING IS OCCURRING AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG HAS FORMED. TEMPS LOOK CERTAIN TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...INTO THE 20S. NO UPDATES. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES STARTING TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUE NIGHT. BURKE

What do you expect, NWS is never certain on what they forecast. They probably won't make any predictions on snowfall amounts until Monday Night/Tuesday Morning updates.

[W13]

Temperature is holding steady right around 30-31 F, with a Dew Point of 26 F and 83% Relative Humidity, at 9:00 PM.

[W13]

I will be back in an hour with another update on the current situation.

[TT-SEA]

It has become more organized... but the north end keeps falling apart.

It looks like its moving but its not going anywhere.

I would say a repeat surprise is almost impossible. Almost.

[AnthonyC]

Wow, roads are VERY ICY!!! Alot of black ice...I slipped twice. Current temperature of 23 F!!! Very COLD!!! Still about an inch of snow on the ground. I suspect my school district will have an hour delay tomorrow morning...if not two hours. I don't think any of that moisture will make it further north than Olympia...air is too dry and the surface low is pulling away. Next focus of attention is Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Possible arctic blast Wednesday through Saturday of this week.

Anthony

9:30pm-23 F

[AnthonyC]

Anyone see the latest 850 mb heights on the ETA? -16C down to Seattle on Wednesday morning?! Could that be?! I've never seen it that cold. GFS has -12C. Seems kind of extreme. But something to DEFINITELY watch.

[andycottle]

Hmmmm....almost..Tim? So you do have some hope..

Well viewing at tonights GFS 00z - 18z...looks like Wednesday the 12th will be the better day out of the wook week at possiably seeing some snow as 500MB heights show to be around 500DM to 516DM and 850MB temps -15 to -20C with heights 1470 to 1500M. 700MB heights 1240 to 1290M with himidity less than 70%. Also looked at the GEM and ECMWF...and they see a little warmer for wednesday to where we might not see snow.

What is everyone eles here seeing? And maybe someone here can link me up to a site with a better Euro weather model that shows the NW U.S ot just the whole U.S. Just asking since some of ya are saying that the Euro is the better weather model to look at.

-- Andy

[R-Dub]

Temp dropping like a rock here also!
Both GFS and ETA brings very cold air in! We shall see.
As for tonight, I agree we won't see any precip tonight, but hey you never know.

1/9/05 LK Goodwin WA
9:39:56 PM CURRENT
Partly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 26.3
Humidity (%) 98.7
Wind (mph) NE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.01
Dew Point: 26.2 ºF

[W13]

Actually, the precip is going north. Slow, but it is moving North. It is now into Portland, which it wasn't a half hour ago and pretty much right at the border now. I think we might have a surprise waiting in the early morning hours (4-7AM).

Goodnight!

[andycottle]

Our temp here in Woodinville has been hovering in the 30, 31 degree mark. And as of 10pm...that`s our temp..30 degrees. DP is 29 with humidity 100% and baro on the rise...29.83. Also...we still have clear skies. -- Andy

[cloud9]

Something is seriously wrong with the NWS radar right now its showing blizzard like conditions from Olmpia to Bellingham.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ETA has an insane scenario. The GFS looks relatively weak compared to the ETA. But I usually trust the ETA within 60 hours.

Very cold air and tons of moisture on Tuesday night / Wednesday morning.

This type of northwest flow upper air pattern in the spring or early summer would produce a quick shot of rain with the front and then a wicked convergence zone that whips through from Mount Vernon to North Bend.

I would expect the same with this system except that the air is forecasted to be so amazingly cold.

Does anyone else ever remember a convergence zone type snowstorm??

That is very different than a cold upper low throwing a general shield of moisture over the top of cold air like we had this weekend. I would imagine a convergence zone snowstorm would be feast or famine. Olympia and Tacoma may have nothing at all while places on either side of the Snohomish/King County line could get a foot of snow meanwhile Bellingham gets very little.

Thats just a guess... I have not seen this scenario. This is type of scenario would be very unique to Western Washington. So I ask the natives... does anyone remember this happening??

[andycottle]

I can answer your comment, cloud9. Basicly what your seeing is...Clear Air Mode. And that`s just ground clutter, like for example.. cars, birds, dust, fog, ect. Or can also be flase echos which goes right along with the spratic echos that you are seeing. Hope that gives ya an answer.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

W13 - The moisture is still plodding along... I keep expecting it to disappear but its not. Also checked the satellite and the clouds are thickening AND cooling across SW Washington. Interesting.

God knows it is cold enough tonight for snow.

It seems counter-intuitive with the upper low pulling away that it would keep moving north away from its support.

But the same thing happened last night.

[andrewr]

It's now cloudy here when not too long ago it was clear. According to KOMO's radar, there are some precip. spots moving up against the Cascades that are almost to Olympia and I don't think they are false echo's, but who knows.

[cloud9]

Theres a huge orange-red blob on the radar by centralia now.