Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

cloud9 · #441 Postby **cloud9** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 2:20 am

Maybe were being invaded by aliens

andycottle · #442 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 2:36 am

lol..uh huh..sure....') :wink:

-- Andy

TT-SEA · #443 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 8:36 am

Good morning all... no surprises this morning as the band of snow slowly died as it moved in to the Seattle area.

The latest discussion is finally saying what I have been saying for two days... the convergence zone event for Tuesday could be pretty amazing for certain areas.

Here is part of what they said...

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE HEAVY SNOW. ONCE THE STRONGEST
WINDS PUNCH DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...1000-850 MB THICKNESSES WILL QUICKLY DROP WELL BELOW THE
1300 M VALUE THAT WE OFTEN WATCH FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW. COMBINE THIS
WITH A WELL-DEFINED PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE (PSCZ) MEANS THERE
COULD BE TROUBLE. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE TIME OF THE
EVENT TO SEE HOW FAR BACK TOWARD PUGET SOUND THAT THE PSCZ
DEVELOPS...BUT THE FOOTHILLS...PARTICULARLY IN SNOHOMISH
COUNTY...AND THE CASCADES SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. 850-700 MB
NEAR 8 C/KM WILL FURTHER ADD FUEL TO THE PROVERBIAL FIRE. THE
WEST-NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL FLOW IS ALSO ONE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE
DIRECTIONS FOR BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO THE PASSES. DON'T FORGET THAT
IT WILL ALSO BE A WINDY FRONT...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL
ALSO BE A PROBLEM. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. WILL MENTION
"MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE" IN THE ZONES FOR THE EVERETT AREA.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO TURN INTO AN ADVISORY EVENT FOR WESTERN
SNOHOMISH COUNTY ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANYTHING COULD REALLY HAPPEN FROM THE SUBLIME TO THE RIDICULOUS.

I think somebody is going to get absolutely clobbered. The closer you are to the Puget Sound or south of a Sea-Tac to Renton line the less chance you have of snow.

The closer you are to the Cascades the better. Andy... you could be the BIG winner this time. I am thinking Everett will get some but places like Woodinville, Monroe, Snohomish, Gold Bar, Carnation, (maybe North Bend) could be buried.

Could be.

W13 · #444 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:19 am

What about the East Hill of Kent, heading into Covington. We are a ways away from the water, and we usually get clobbered when there is a storm like this. Also, remember that the PSCZ sometimes drifts down all the way to the King/Pierce Co. Line. I'm hoping for the best! 8-)

TT-SEA · #445 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:32 am

W13 - I am hoping it slips south as well.

The NWS seems to be focusing on southern Snohomish County which is the overall favored location of the PCSZ. But many convergence zones move south of there... sometimes to the King/Pierce line.

I think we are going to get lucky this time. The very strong winds out of northwest are likely to push PCSZ south of its normal position.

That is just a guess.

Whoever ends up under this thing is going to have lots of snow!!

AnthonyC · #446 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:28 am

2-hour delay for Mukilteo. Nice day to chill and sleep in. I'm getting excited for Tuesday night. There's two possibilities for the Everett area...high wind event or PSCZ snowstorm. I won't get my hopes up too high, but the possibility is there. Looks unbelievably cold Tuesday night through Saturday morning...even Rich Marriot has high temperatures Wednesday through Friday only in the low-mid 30s. This might be it for winter, so we better enjoy!! Next shot of snow...Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Anthony

andycottle · #447 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:49 am

Yeah Tim...kinda what I was thinking, that we`ll most likely be in under the PSCZ, and probably with LOTS of precip. -- Andy

R-Dub · #448 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:52 am

Up where I am usually gets clobbered with the convergence zone first. Typically it forms right over top of us, or just to the north about at the tip of Camino Island then moves south. Could be interesting. The wind could also be interesting.
Lakewood school district (where I live) is 2hrs late

1/10/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:47:34 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 27.8
Humidity (%) 90.5
Wind (mph) E 2.6
Daily Rain (") 0.00 No
Pressure ("Hg) 30.06
Dew Point: 25.4 ºF
Snow Depth 1"

R-Dub · #449 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:07 am

Hey its snowing here again! Doesn't look like it will amount to much, but hey, 3 morning in a row of waking up to snowfall! Can't beat that around here anyway. Looks like a little moisture inhansment(sp) going on right up my way looking at the radar. Maybe just enough for a very light dusting 8-)

More then I though we would get, figured it would be clear this morning.

R-Dub · #450 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:11 am

boy do I like the sound of this forecast!

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 415 AM PST MON JAN 10 2005 SPOT TEMPERATURES AND PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOR TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY. WAZ006>008-102330- SEATTLE METROPOLITAN AREA-TACOMA AREA-EVERETT AND VICINITY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BELLEVUE-EDMONDS-ISSAQUAH-PUYALLUP

415 AM PST MON JAN 10 2005

.TODAY...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT WIND.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDY WITH SNOW LIKELY...MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE EVENING. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEATTLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH OF SEATTLE...NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD... SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT WIND.

R-Dub · #451 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:20 am

WOW snow really coming down now. This is kind of a shock, really didn't think moisture would make it up this way.
Temp 29.4 degrees

Just looked out at the road, its covered again!

andycottle · #452 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:22 am

Hey folks. Just took a look at the latest GFS and ETA...and ETA is showing LOTS of precip for 12z Wednesday in the North Puget Sound area .50" to specific. Wow...that could be like 6" or so worth of snow.

-- Andy

R-Dub · #453 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:48 am

Sounds great Andy! I am really looking foreward to another shot of winter!

Well its still snowing here, areas that were bare ground, are now covered in a good dusting of snow.

R-Dub · #454 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:25 pm

Snow still falling here, where is this moisture coming from? Amazing! I took a couple of pics just now, but I don't know how to post them.

R-Dub · #455 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:42 pm

Another update (can you tell I am excited) Moderate snow! 29.6 degrees

R-Dub · #456 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 1:11 pm

LT snow falling with sunny conditions! Temp 30.5 degrees. Don't see that everyday. All roads covered, and very slick. NWS not even mentioning the fact that we got a good shot up here. Also they say NOTHING about this week. They are really starting to annoy me. Is Felton turning a blind eye to this?

TT-SEA · #457 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 4:02 pm

O.K... I did some investigation on the ETA and GFS based MM5 runs from this morning (this model has great terrain resolution for the PNW) and it looks like the convergence zone forms in the north and just keeps moving south all the way through Western Washington being pushed by northwest winds behind the front.

It appears that it takes about 3-6 hours to pass any one location but does linger over an area from about Mercer Island east to the Cascades the longest. This is the typical location for a convergence zone in this upper air pattern.

The NWS did mention that this is a favored upper air pattern for heavy snow in the Cascades so that area will get plastered.

The question is... when this convergence zone is passing by the lowlands will it be cold enough to snow???? I think it will... but if not this will be a very routine winter type front with about a half inch of rain (more near the Cascades). Once the convergence zone passes... all precipitation will end. This event will be quick and definite... not lingering and slow-moving like the last event. If the precipitation does fall as snow it could come down really hard.

Either way... the places that got downsloped in the last event (near the Cascades) will be extremely upsloped this time and get the most precipitation. Areas closer to the Puget Sound will tend to be shadowed by the Olympics.

TT-SEA · #458 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 4:09 pm

The 18Z run of the ETA has trended a little warmer with the system for tomorrow. Same precipitation amounts... but a little warmer.

Not sure what that means to our snow chances... but probably does not improve them.

R-Dub · #459 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 4:10 pm

Double T........What is your guess on how much snow I may get?
2 or more inches would be fine with me, but would love more!!

Do you think we will be cold enough to keep the snow on the ground for a few days?

AnthonyC · #460 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 4:17 pm

Pretty quick day of school with a 2-hour delay and no 6th period. Pretty warm with the sunshine...about 40 F. Snow is melting pretty quick. A possible refreeze tonight may mean another 1-hour delay for my school district tomorrow. As for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, possible high wind event and localized snowstorm. In the past...and I know because Mukilteo usually gets hammered by PSCZ...it may precipitate for 15 minutes, but a quick, slushy inch of snow has already fallen. Looking at latest models, things WILL be cold enough for all snow...except in the initial stages when the front drops down from the north.

Anthony

Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

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