Latest model progs to go along w/the arctic surge, indicate for an average a 1050mb or so HIGH dropping into the US from MT surging downward in TX by the end of the 7 day period ...
SF
Record high pressures possible from IA to TX ...
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Stormsfury
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CaptinCrunch
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The 1000 mb chart also shows near surface weather conditions. The parameters plotted are 1000 mb temperature in Celsius (in color contours), convergence (black lines, interval=2, shaded > 0), 1000 mb dewpoints in Celsius (colored lines, interval=5, bold orange=20, bold white=15, bold red=0, bold magenta=-15, bold gray=-30) and winds plotted as vectors.
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southerngale
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Stormsfury
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southerngale wrote:What does that mean for Southeast Texas?
During the winter time, dense HIGH pressure systems from the north coincide well with cold (arctic) air ... and with it nosing it's way down into TX, well, an end to the early spring we've been experiencing ever since the end of 2004 ...
SF
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southerngale wrote:What does that mean for Southeast Texas?
It sounds like based on information that there will be subfreezing cold in southeast Texas Saturday night. The first cold front will provide thunderstorms, some strong on Wednesday night. Then somewhat cooler air will follow for Thursday and Friday followed by a reinforcing shot later Friday. Temps will likely near freezing friday night and dip below freezing into the upper 20s to near 30 Saturday night. Whatever growing or budding has occurred during this recent warm spell will liekly be hampered by this upcoming cold snap. High temps will be lucky to surpass 50 degrees Saturday and Sunday. It's looking dry this upcoming weekend for southeast Texas.
Jim
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PurdueWx80
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I'm pretty sure record high pressure in the Plains is over 1060 mb but I haven't been able to find a source for this.
Regardless...there will be extremely cold air behind this front. Let's take, for instance, this afternoon's run of the Eta. Looking at the 850mb Temp prog, we see temps as cold as -45C which is about -50F. -50F air at 850 can translate to surface temps colder than -50F if an area is close to the surface high and has snowcover w/ clear skies. This is obviously most likely in the Dakotas and MN, but everyone in the central and east should watch this closely, as it could mean some of the coldest weather in years for many.
Here's that run with -50F temps...look at Alberta and Saskatchewan..just above Montana:
Regardless...there will be extremely cold air behind this front. Let's take, for instance, this afternoon's run of the Eta. Looking at the 850mb Temp prog, we see temps as cold as -45C which is about -50F. -50F air at 850 can translate to surface temps colder than -50F if an area is close to the surface high and has snowcover w/ clear skies. This is obviously most likely in the Dakotas and MN, but everyone in the central and east should watch this closely, as it could mean some of the coldest weather in years for many.
Here's that run with -50F temps...look at Alberta and Saskatchewan..just above Montana:
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Air Force Met
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PurdueWx80 wrote: -50F air at 850 can translate to surface temps colder than -50F if an area is close to the surface high and has snowcover w/ clear skies.
It usually does translate into colder air...because of the inversion that is present in the artic air. In artic air...the temps actually warm with height for the first couple of thousand feet. So...-45C air at 850 likely has -55C at the sfc (if the height of the 850 level is 2000-3000' above the sfc...like it is in the plains of Canada.
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Stormsfury
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I'm pretty sure record high pressure in the Plains is over 1060 mb but I haven't been able to find a source for this.
Definitely for locations like MT, ND, SD, and most all the northern states ... but was shocked to find some meager HP records further south. The 0z GGEM now is strong as 1055-1057mb in KS ...
SF
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