Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

W13 · #481 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:11 pm

R-Dub wrote:I love it when NWS is wrong, expecally when they act so confident about it. I would laugh if temps were colder then they thought, and everyone gets hammered with snow!

Which is hopefully just what happens tommorow night and into Wednesday.

R-Dub · #482 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:14 pm

What if we stay clear all night, temps drop into the upper teens low 20's, then the clouds roll in before the sun has a chance to warm us up. Wouldn't we be cold enough for some snow at least at the start of the precip? Then convergance zone nail us with more? I would love to see egg on Felton, or Kams face!!! :lol:

1/10/05 LK Goodwin WA
4:10:12 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 29.5
Humidity (%) 80.2
Wind (mph) NW 1.1
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.99
Dew Point: 26.1 ºF
Snow Depth 1"

W13 · #483 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:17 pm

Yep, that would be awesome!

R-Dub · #484 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:19 pm

A snipit of Scott Komo4 Discussion

"Speaking of which, We're expecting sunny skies Thursday through Saturday, but still kinda chilly. Highs will only be in the mid-upper 30s and lows will drop into the low-mid 20s in Seattle, and colder in the outlying areas. We finally begin to warm up toward the start of next week, with plain ol' rain returning for Sunday and highs into the downright balmy mid 40s."

Lows in the low 20's in Seattle mid teens or lower for NW interior ! Isn't that worthy of being mentioned on NWS discussion?????
Guess not :roll:

W13 · #485 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:21 pm

R-Dub wrote:A snipit of Scott Komo4 Discussion

"Speaking of which, We're expecting sunny skies Thursday through Saturday, but still kinda chilly. Highs will only be in the mid-upper 30s and lows will drop into the low-mid 20s in Seattle, and colder in the outlying areas. We finally begin to warm up toward the start of next week, with plain ol' rain returning for Sunday and highs into the downright balmy mid 40s."

Lows in the low 20's in Seattle mid teens or lower for NW interior ! Isn't that worthy of being mentioned on NWS discussion?????
Guess not

Yes, I agree. Felton could have at least said somethign about temperatures turning very cold towards the latter part of the work week. He and Kam are way, way to pessimistic.

cloud9 · #486 Postby **cloud9** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:36 pm

NWCN said it could get down to -16*f in Spokane Wed. night. They also mentioned snow in the convergence zone here.

AnthonyC · #487 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:53 pm

Wow, it's dropped four degrees in a little over an hour. Currently 29 F. I say we'll plummet to 23 F tonight...a tye for coldest night of the season. As for tomorrow, no stations/discussions are showing much confidence. This will either be significant or nothing. There won't be an "in-between" kind of thing. I also think Komo 4 is being conservative with their daytime and overnight temperatures Wednesday thru Friday...high of 37 on Thursday?! I would say closer to 33 F in downtown Seattle...probably mid 20s in Bellingham. But I'm just an amateur meteorologist...what do I know?! lol. Looks like best places for snow are the cascades (which is awesome!!) and the PSCZ around Everett. But I think all areas will have scattered snow showers Wed. morning when 500 mb thicknesses lower rapidly.

Anthony

TT-SEA · #488 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 8:10 pm

Just read the latest discussion.

Not sure what to think.

First... the onshore push ahead of this front should be significant. Meaning any existing air mass should get kicked out quickly and replaced by marine air. The exception being deep valleys for a short time. Otherwise I agree that there will be a major air mass change tomorrow afternoon. That should allow for rain. I think.

This system will NOT be sucking cold air in from the east (outflow) but rather bring its own after the front. So the spots that were coldest last time will not have the same advantage.

Anyways... the focus is on the PSCZ which as I said earlier will be south of its normal position. If the latest discussion is dead right then Andy (Woodinville)and myself (North Bend) would get clobbered and most every place else would get nothing.

I don't trust this at all. This is amazingly tough to forecast. I truly have no idea what is going to happen. There is probably a 50% that there will no lowland snow. There is also a chance of a widepread snow event.

I guess we will all know by Wednesday morning. One thing is for sure... the precipitation will come to a screeching halt on Wednesday with very dry air and offshore flow.

W13 · #489 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 8:28 pm

I agree, there is a 50% chance that this will be a huge event for the lowlands, and then there is a 50% chance of nothing materializing except for rain and a little bit of wind. I guess we will just have to wait until tommorow night at this time to be absolutely sure.

andycottle · #490 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 8:36 pm

R-dub....seems like your getting lots of snow today...just in light amounts though. As for the icy conditions....was a wee bit slippery on the Burke Gilman bike trail this morning here in Woodinville. some big patches of thin ice. And also black ice. Believe it or not...I had a little wipe out on my mountain bike riding too work early this morning. Not to worrie though...just a little skid & fall. I wasn`t hurt...just taken by surprize as I was being really careful about going over the icy spots.

-- Andy

W13 · #491 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:11 pm

32 F at 6:11 PM

AnthonyC · #492 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:21 pm

27 F at 6:30pm. With little breeze and radiational cooling, frigid temperatures tonight. I have to agree with TT-SEA...50/50 here. Like I said before, it might snow 6 inches in one place but 15 miles away there's NOTHING. That's how sporadic/random PSCZs are. Right now, best shot is between North Everett and North Seattle. As for the high wind event, I don't think the onshore flow and cold air advection will be quite strong enough to produce high winds. But gusts up to 40mph seem possible. Tomorrow will be a busy day for Western Washington meteorologists.

Anthony

TT-SEA · #493 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:29 pm

Bad news... the new 00Z run of the ETA is trending even warmer and weaker with the system tomorrow night than the 18Z run. I was hoping for a reversal on this run. At it stands now... our snow chances are diminishing.

If this trend continues for the next 4 runs we will have no chance at lowland snow.

Even the rain would be light and insignificant.

As the system develops the ETA is getting a better handle on the situation so I think we are seeing the reality of the situation. In addition... this is the same solution the GFS has been indicating all along (warmer and weaker).

In fact... the latest run has 500mb heights of 5400 at the deepest point compared to 5160 on the runs yesterday. Precipitation amounts have been cut in half from even the run this morning. That is a big difference and now we have model agreement. Not good.

W13 · #494 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:34 pm

TT-SEA wrote:Bad news... the new 00Z run of the ETA is trending even warmer and weaker with the system tomorrow night than the 18Z run. I was hoping for a reversal on this run. At it stands now... our snow chances are diminishing.

If this trend continues for the next 4 runs we will have no chance at lowland snow.

Even the rain would be light and insignificant.

As the system develops the ETA is getting a better handle on the situation so I think we are seeing the reality of the situation. In addition... this is the same solution the GFS has been indicating all along (warmer and weaker).

In fact... the latest run has 500mb heights of 5400 at the deepest point compared to 5160 on the runs yesterday. Precipitation amounts have been cut in half from even the run this morning. That is a big difference and now we have model agreement. Not good.

This is just one run, nothing to get too concerned about but if it continues into tommorow morning as well, then there might be something to get upset about.

Anyways, what do the latest Euro and Canadian models say?

W13 · #495 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:35 pm

31 F at 6:35 PM

TT-SEA · #496 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:37 pm

The European model (ECMWF) is primarily used for day 3 and beyond. Its counterpart in the short term is the ETA model that I am talking about.

AnthonyC · #497 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:38 pm

Seems like a hiccup...too extreme from one run to another. I guess we'll know by tomorrow morning.

W13 · #498 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:39 pm

TT-SEA wrote:The European model (ECMWF) is primarily used for day 3 and beyond. Its counterpart in the short term is the ETA model that I am talking about.

Okay, and the Canadian models ...?

Before we start getting too upset, let's atleast wait for the 00z GFS.

TT-SEA · #499 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:40 pm

I also think we are now talking about rain outside of the PSCZ.

Maybe it will start as snow but it will almost immediately turn to rain as the marine air floods the lowlands.

W13 · #500 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:40 pm

AnthonyC wrote:Seems like a hiccup...too extreme from one run to another. I guess we'll know by tomorrow morning.

I agree, this same thing has happened before, even for our area in the last few weeks. Nothing to serious to worry about yet, it is what it shows tommorow morning that counts.

Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

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