For MY Florida, SE US folks. Your pattern change IS COMING

[wxguy25]

heres a refresher on FEB 01 for you

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/feb01_0.bmp
http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/temp/feb01_1.GIF

[Chris the Weather Man]

I remember that storm...... My area got 9 inches... and my friend who lives in Sussex, got 18"...


I see what you mean, though.....

[wxguy25]

I remember that storm...... My area got 9 inches... and my friend who lives in Sussex, got 18"...


I see what you mean, though.....

exactly. For SOME that missed out on DEC 2000 that was the storm of the winter. Mainly the LNS-ABE-ALY-PSF corridor where 18-24" fell. A classic Inland snowstorm. Not a good one for the big cities. In many ways I also believe its a grossly underrated event.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes.... I remember seeing 2 inches an hour during that storm... That was a good winter, soon to be forgotten thanks to 2002-2003.....

[wxguy25]

Yes.... I remember seeing 2 inches an hour during that storm... That was a good winter, soon to be forgotten thanks to 2002-2003.....

Oh wait...how did we get on the subject of east oast snowstorms when this is a Florida thread. LOL!!

ANyway that nor'easter actually developed along a Quasistationary frontal boundary draped across central FL, and then got caught and bombed out by the 500mb s/w as it dove southeastward.

[Scorpion]

Hopefully there is more energy behind this to push the cold deep into Florida. This is a Siberian high we're talking about here. If not, there goes our "winter". And that would give way to way above normal SST's .

[wxguy25]

Hopefully there is more energy behind this to push the cold deep into Florida. This is a Siberian high we're talking about here. If not, there goes our "winter". And that would give way to way above normal SST's .

The winter is NOT going anywhere. And it would take a heck of a long time to bring SSTs up for the cane season. Right now they are running well below normal along the FL coast

[Stormsfury]

All the hurricanes in 2004 seemed to have taken a toll on warmer SST's depths through continual rounds of upwelling from a collective of no less than 9 storms ...

[wxguy25]

All the hurricanes in 2004 seemed to have taken a toll on warmer SST's depths through continual rounds of upwelling from a collective of no less than 9 storms ...

yep and one more problem...notice what is sitting out there near 40-50 N / 20-40 W. Central Atlantic warm pool. So don't expect any -NAO of substance as long as thats there.

[Stormsfury]

All the hurricanes in 2004 seemed to have taken a toll on warmer SST's depths through continual rounds of upwelling from a collective of no less than 9 storms ...

yep and one more problem...notice what is sitting out there near 40-50 N / 20-40 W. Central Atlantic warm pool. So don't expect any -NAO of substance as long as thats there.

Noticed that on the anomaly map ... interestingly enough, I noticed that the EC about a week ago or so actually formed a tropical system in that warm pool from the cutoff that sat and spun out there for some time ..

About the only shot aside from getting a sustainable -NAO will have to come from either 1) a retrograding of the pattern (IOW, the Scandy Block to retrograde back towards Greenland) or 2) a phase event in the Central Plains/Midwest strong enough to become a new PV and force a ridge to bump off over Greenland ... and neither look to occur in the next 10 days, although, some HINTS are there ...

So far, the variability we talked about in PM is holding, and the significant southern snow/winter storm event has already come to fruitation with the historical TX hit, and winter weather across the southern GOM coast, and SE but elsewhere, a lot of things haven't come around ... I expected the variability, and random dispersal of snowfalls, but I didn't exactly see this as being a Midwest Winter, as it has been thus far ... for a snow lover, the Mid-ATL snowfall amounts have blown chunks ...

I expected periods this year of warmth, and even record warmth, but did NOT expect to be basking in it for 2 weeks at a time after the late Christmas/Sun winter storm (12/25-12/26/2004) ...

Prognostic wise, I expect February across the East to be colder than normal, but whether or not it is a sustainable cold remains pure speculation at this point. Many times, the models and associated ensembles have advertised -NAO/+PNA patterns on numerous occasions. While the PNA pattern has emerged, the NAO forecasts have also relatively blown chow ... and remained POS and even off the charts POS ... it CAN easily get cold to VERY COLD during +PNA/+NAO, and it can bring about good snowfalls to some locations, but plain and simple, w/out a -NAO, the cold is transient and exits just as fast or faster than it came in, even w/good snow cover ...

SF

[wxguy25]

Noticed that on the anomaly map ... interestingly enough, I noticed that the EC about a week ago or so actually formed a tropical system in that warm pool from the cutoff that sat and spun out there for some time ..

I saw that. It reminded me of a North Atlantic version of Sequence of events that lead to the Brazil / South Atlantic cane last year.

About the only shot aside from getting a sustainable -NAO will have to come from either 1) a retrograding of the pattern (IOW, the Scandy Block to retrograde back towards Greenland) or 2) a phase event in the Central Plains/Midwest strong enough to become a new PV and force a ridge to bump off over Greenland ... and neither look to occur in the next 10 days, although, some HINTS are there ...

Well the NAO should go neutral D 6 -7 according the OP-ECMWF as the PV rebuilds over NE Hudson bay but when it comes right down to it, this is not really a tangible change and a short lived one at that. EL Nino – west QBO winters favor plenty of retrogression however IF the Atlantic SSTA configuration was more favorable that retrogression of the ridge would probably be a given.

So far, the variability we talked about in PM is holding, and the significant southern snow/winter storm event has already come to fruitation with the historical TX hit, and winter weather across the southern GOM coast, and SE but elsewhere, a lot of things haven't come around ... I expected the variability, and random dispersal of snowfalls, but I didn't exactly see this as being a Midwest Winter, as it has been thus far ... for a snow lover, the Mid-ATL snowfall amounts have blown chunks ...

I expected periods this year of warmth, and even record warmth, but did NOT expect to be basking in it for 2 weeks at a time after the late Christmas/Sun winter storm (12/25-12/26/2004) ...

Who could have? Weak El Nino west QBO in the ATL/PAC cold phase normally shrieks of a cold/snowy winter over the EUS. What’s been killing winter is the fact that the warm pool is there in the Atlantic and the PAC signal has been in a state of flux since OCT. its not like 2002 or 1993, 1986 when the warm pool was there in the GOA. IF we don’t get some changes My winter forecast is headed for BUST’S-VILLE!

Prognostic wise, I expect February across the East to be colder than normal, but whether or not it is a sustainable cold remains pure speculation at this point. Many times, the models and associated ensembles have advertised -NAO/+PNA patterns on numerous occasions. While the PNA pattern has emerged, the NAO forecasts have also relatively blown chow ... and remained POS and even off the charts POS ... it CAN easily get cold to VERY COLD during +PNA/+NAO, and it can bring about good snowfalls to some locations, but plain and simple, w/out a -NAO, the cold is transient and exits just as fast or faster than it came in, even w/good snow cover ...

SNowcover is NOT as important to the NAO as some think it is. Sure the quality of air masses is better when you have a strong expansive snowpack and the Siberian high tends to be stronger promoting a –AO but it isn’t everything. The Atlantic tripole is MUCH…MUCH more important.

As far as FEB goes… w/ no really clear or overpowering signal either from the ENSO / N PAC, variability is the word WRT to the pattern. It’s probably best to follow the MJO progression to deal w/ the Bi-weekly to monthly fluctuations in the pattern as I’ve been doing. BUT if the cycles are abnormal then forget it. The ENSO 1+2 region is really cooling off and we’re losing the EL Nino QUICKLY. This is where a good Kelvin wave comes in handy LOL!!

The first place I would look to find a consistent signal would be the Atlantic since the NAO has been positive. It’s a place to start and as long as the warm pool is there it’s not going to change, and secondly the QBO is very weak positive which DOES favor a rough winter in the EUS. Still positive but barely. (Go to the CDC composite page and make a 5-day running mean plot of 50mb U anomalies for the period JAN 1-5. Set the map Projection to ALL)

[wxguy25]

BTW here is the new D 10 ECMWF. Take Notice to one critical issue---that being the PV over Greenland. w/ that in place the NAO will not be going negative anytime soon.

Secondly compare the ECMWF NAO projection out to day 10 (which is strongly positive) and compare that to the GFS ensemble mean. THEN look at how POORLY the Ensembles have been doing w/ the NAO. The forecast has been way off of the verification.

Thusly, I would make sure I check the rest of the data before stating the NAO will go negative based just on the GFS ensembles.

[Wnghs2007]

So much for the atlantic Jet working against itself. If anything its made the warm pool stronger. Just face it the NAO is screwed. And with the PV where it is it teleconnects as DT said to a new Surge of Pacific jet to tear down the PNA Ridge.


Well RIP Winter 2004/2005 folks. The year that could have been big got screwed by a small warm pool in the atlantic and stingy ssta in the Pacific. SCREW THEM!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Well, KC, I would not write it off just yet..... (Maybe in 2005-2006, the Ghost of 1995-1996 will be back (Weak La Nina) I Doubt this very much, though) But hey, I can be wrong.

[breeze]

It ain't over 'til the Fat Lady sings......

....and, THIS fat lady is getting her winter coat
BACK out of the closet!

Bring on the COOOLLD!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

BTW here is the new D 10 ECMWF. Take Notice to one critical issue---that being the PV over Greenland. w/ that in place the NAO will not be going negative anytime soon.

Secondly compare the ECMWF NAO projection out to day 10 (which is strongly positive) and compare that to the GFS ensemble mean. THEN look at how POORLY the Ensembles have been doing w/ the NAO. The forecast has been way off of the verification.

Thusly, I would make sure I check the rest of the data before stating the NAO will go negative based just on the GFS ensembles.

Nice Analysis..... Darn PV, not in its classic spot. Well, lets see how this pattern goes..

[JenyEliza]

It ain't over 'til the Fat Lady sings......

....and, THIS fat lady is getting her winter coat
BACK out of the closet!

Bring on the COOOLLD!!

You got that right!!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Eh, you want cold, go to Canada, with lows around -50F

[JenyEliza]

So much for the atlantic Jet working against itself. If anything its made the warm pool stronger. Just face it the NAO is screwed. And with the PV where it is it teleconnects as DT said to a new Surge of Pacific jet to tear down the PNA Ridge.


Well RIP Winter 2004/2005 folks. The year that could have been big got screwed by a small warm pool in the atlantic and stingy ssta in the Pacific. SCREW THEM!

You give up too easily. Remember 1993? March 13, 1993, to be specific?

I'm not throwing the towel in...and you shouldn't either, my friend! Think SNOW!!!! Think COLD!!! Think we're barely into "official" winter, and we've got weeks to go yet before Spring.

[JenyEliza]

Eh, you want cold, go to Canada, with lows around -50F

That'd be going just a wee bit overboard on COLD, ya think?