Thinking of Writing off Winter 2004-05 in the East?

[donsutherland1]

One need only go back to late July to review a similar situation. At the time, the 2004 hurricane season had yet to see its first storm and there were growing sentiments that the season would prove to be a largely inactive one.

The global indices strongly argued otherwise: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ht=#589743

Three points are in order:

• The season burst to life in explosive fashion that seemed, at least among those who had given up on the season, quite unexpected.
• Just before its coming to life, there were many model solutions that were seemingly not enthusiastic. Yet, when one is looking well ahead--beyond even the reach of the 384-hour GFS--one should consider analogs based on similar synoptic setups for guidance.
• February and March account for a substantial amount of a season's snowfall. Since recordkeeping began, February and March accounted for 46% of Washington, DC's seasonal snowfall and 48% of Boston's seasonal snowfall.

Going back to Winter 2004-05, mainly in the East, there is now broad consensus of a pattern change that will take place late this week. A week ago, the consensus was much thinner.

As I've noted on a number of occasions, many of the possible analogs (based on ENSO, QBO, etc.) offer much reason for confidence that The January 16-31 period will prove colder than normal in the East (7 of the 10 seasons with similar ENSO profiles in both December and October-December) argue for this. 3 of the 4 that include a similar MEI do so.

Moreover, of those 7 that showed the pattern change to colder than normal after mid-month, 5 saw that pattern sustained into at least the first week in February. So, given the weight of analogs, I do not believe it would be unreasonable to argue that the colder pattern could hold for 2-3 weeks. Supporting this idea is both the RSM and GSM.

Beyond this, perhaps there might be a 1-2 week pause and then the pattern might well reload if at least some of the past analogs have merit. That's a little more speculative but at least food for thought.

Many of the similar ENSO-QBO seasons saw at least near normal snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic with above normal snowfall in New England.

Thus, even if the current modeling might not show the kind of storms required, I am confident that Washington, DC will see at least 16" of snow this season (total to date is 0.1") with possibly more, Philadelphia will see 20"-25" (to date: 0.4"), and Boston will see 50"-60" (to date: 19.5").

These are not extreme snowfall totals but they are decent. I'm very confident that in the end, seasonal totals will be far closer to my estimates than the current levels to date.

In short, I believe one should be cautious about prematurely writing off winter at this point in time. This is not 1972-73, 1997-98 or 2001-02 in the East.

[Stephanie]

I know that we've always discussed the affects of the previous seasons on their potential bearing on the current one. It'll be interesting to see if this winter acts like the 2004 summer.

[donsutherland1]

It will be very interesting to see how things turn out, Stephanie. At least, there should be some potential for excitement, both from cold and later from possible snow.

[jkt21787]

For the last few weeks I have been reading post after post on several boards (here included) about it being the end of winter. Like you said Don, i just think back to the people proclaiming an end to the hurricane season in July!

This is just early January, easily another two months of watching ahead. The change is coming, so at least cold air will be in place. Does this mean it will be a blockbuster winter? Not at all. But there is no reason to give up all hope yet.

Honestly, I have been satisfied with winter so far. We had one sleet/ice/snow storm and a nice period of well below freezing temperatures, not to mention the first white Christmas in 40 years. Many winters, we don't even see one storm. Would I like to have another? Of course (I am a snow weenie at heart!). At least here, Late Jan and Feb are our biggest snow months, our biggest storm ever actually happened in early March!

My advice is to watch the pattern, see how it develops, and dont call winter cancel until at least Mid-February

[Chris the Weather Man]

Boston has had a nice winter so far, 20" of snow....

[Suncat]

The last couple of weeks have been both unusually warm and humid for this time of year in the Raleigh, NC area. With the upcoming change in the weather pattern, how likely is a significant snow or ice event for us here?

BTW, after a very cold and foggy start for the day, we warmed up to a high in the 70s by the afternoon!

[nystate]

Writing off winter? No way! Just look at my forecast...

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low near 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: Snow showers likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 4. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high around 10. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low near 1. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[Suncat]

Hey, nystate, how about sending some of that snow down to us!

[weathermom]

ok, upstate ny, like where? plattsburgh? that almost counts as canada.

[Chris the Weather Man]

ok, upstate ny, like where? plattsburgh? that almost counts as canada.

Watertown, NY, I believe

[nystate]

ok, upstate ny, like where? plattsburgh? that almost counts as canada.

Watertown, NY, I believe

You got it!

Hey, nystate, how about sending some of that snow down to us!

I would, but I don't think that I am going to get much! More than likely Oswego county will get a few feet while us Watertowners will get zilch.

[krysof]

Here in new jersey, we've only gotten a few inches. I'm very upset, cold air is expected but no moisture with it. This is ridiculous. I hate this winter. I thought it was supposed to be cold and snowy. I hate forecasters.

[JenyEliza]

Here in new jersey, we've only gotten a few inches. I'm very upset, cold air is expected but no moisture with it. This is ridiculous. I hate this winter. I thought it was supposed to be cold and snowy. I hate forecasters.

And you wonder why the Mods here have given you a warning?

[boca]

I wrote winter off just in South Florida not the rest of the country.

[krysof]

What? I can't be upset. Everyone is controlling me here. I can't do anything.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Here in new jersey, we've only gotten a few inches. I'm very upset, cold air is expected but no moisture with it. This is ridiculous. I hate this winter. I thought it was supposed to be cold and snowy. I hate forecasters.

Oh lord.... Our turn will come soon... JUST TAKE IT EASY AND DEAL WITH IT! God, I think this board has been spoiled by 2002-2003 and 2003 MECS in December, and the Cold and snowy Jan of 2004

[krysof]

we have definetelly been spoiled and now its really upsetting because you think you will get what you have gotten the last couple of winters and when you don't get it, I and other people just get more upset. Could this warm and snowless winter mean global warming. It's a good possibility but as for now I'll see what happens.

[roebear]

Rain snow line moved south in PA, I believe it bodes well for pattern change coming:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
957 PM EST MON JAN 10 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FIRST 3 PERIODS TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NW 3/4 OF MY CWA. REASON FOR THIS LIES IN 18Z MODEL
RUNS. BOTH ETA/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A COLDER SOLUTION
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AIDED BY STRONGER LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUE. SFC
HIGH PRES SLIDES IN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PROVIDING THE
NECESSARY ANTECEDENT CONDS FOR WINTRY PRECIP.

ETA BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING A 150 MB DEEP LAYER OF < 0C IN THE
CENTRAL MTS...BUT SHRINKING TO AROUND 50 MB IN THE SW. LOOKS LIKE AN
ALL SNOW PROFILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
ALL LEVELS < 0C. THIS ALL TRANSLATES TO IS A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET WITH
A CHANGE TO FZRA AND RAIN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
RIDGE/VALLEY REGION. ACROSS THE SW...A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF IP/FZRA
WITH A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN THERE AFTER. ACROSS MID SUSQ
VALLEY...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD OF SN/IP/FZRA...BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN. EVEN ACROSS LOWER SUSQ...COULD BE SOME SLEET TO START BUT
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY.

SO ADVISORY AREAS WILL BE FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH...WITH THE
THREAT FOR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AREAS. SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
WILL LIKELY LAST INTO TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL...WHERE SFC TEMPS HOVER AROUND FREEZING FOR A
WHILE. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY LASTS UNTIL WED MORNING IN THESE
AREAS. ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR LOWER SUSQ TO MENTION LIGHT MIX AT
ONSET OF PRECIP.

ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TUE.

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

You make some good points. Here's a reminder that things could be far worse. Notice the amounts during the four-year period shown below.

New York City Seasonal Snowfall:

Code: Select all

Season   Snow
1996-97   10.0"
1997-98    5.5"
1998-99   12.7"
1999-00   16.3"


[Tri-State_1925]

Well I just got back in MA tonight...it has been a solid white winter up here, man. Naturally they are calling for another 3-5 inches tomorrow night.

I swear every time I've stepped foot in New England this winter it has snowed. I was telling people last Thursday that it would be snowing around here tomorrow. I'm heading back to NY tomorrow night (where it will be raining of course) but I'll be back on Friday again...I'm expecting more snow around that time.