Not seeing any real cold outbreak in US for Jan........

[Guest]

Should see some below normal temps by end of next week in Northern Plains and Desert SW, but not on the extreme side

Again, rest of country should see normal to above normal temps through
Jan 22....

Most of the extreme cold will stay bottled up north of the border with nothing to drive it to far south.

As many have pointed out...this is Siberian air. Right now...the high is sitting over northeast Siberia and ridging into alaska. This is a HUGH high. Not pressure wise...it is double-barreled at about 1050 or so. BUt...the ridging etends from eastern Alaska...all the way back into NE Siberia to the first high...and then back to the sw into south Siberia to the next high.

All models bring these highs down. All of them bring a 1050mb+ into the central plains by late weekend.

Now...given that info...I ask how you can say the air will stay bottled up north of the border and that most of the country will see near normal temps?

Oh...BTW...the normal high for Springfield, MO is 41...and they are calling for a high of 20 on Friday. That is 20 below normal. So...are they wrong (because you say they are supposed to be near normal).

Bottom line is you need to brush up on some arctic air forecasting. Go back and look at 1983. It was a classic example. The flow on Dec. 23 was zonal...east west...all the way from ND to the GOM. YEt...even though the upper flow was due east and no front would have ever made it into TExas with that flow...the siberian air plunged due south and stuck us in the deep-freeze. Siberian air behaves differently and this is SIberian air. IF you think that the country by and large will be near normal through Jan 22...than you are 1) not a very good forecaster...or 2) delusional

Oh...one last thing. The NWS is ND is going for lows Wed night of -20 with wind gusts over 50. That is a wind chill of -60. Then...by Friday...they are going for lows of <-30 and highs of -20.

I think I call that extreme.

YIKES. AIR FORCE MET I CALL THAT A WHIPPIN. WAS THERE A NEED FOR IT WHO KNOWS. BUT GOOD ANALYSIS.

[Janie34]

Sometimes you have people posting information that you know just isn't correct, its against all guidance and a forecaster's previous experience. Further, you have people who will read this board (despite the disclaimers) and act on what they read. Given that, I'd say sometimes there is a real need for this faulty information to be debunked. It's a good learning experience for the person posting the information and it's also a service to the board, its membership, and the lurkers who are reading along.

Good show.

[jkt21787]

Should see some below normal temps by end of next week in Northern Plains and Desert SW, but not on the extreme side

Again, rest of country should see normal to above normal temps through
Jan 22....

Most of the extreme cold will stay bottled up north of the border with nothing to drive it to far south.

As many have pointed out...this is Siberian air. Right now...the high is sitting over northeast Siberia and ridging into alaska. This is a HUGH high. Not pressure wise...it is double-barreled at about 1050 or so. BUt...the ridging etends from eastern Alaska...all the way back into NE Siberia to the first high...and then back to the sw into south Siberia to the next high.

All models bring these highs down. All of them bring a 1050mb+ into the central plains by late weekend.

Now...given that info...I ask how you can say the air will stay bottled up north of the border and that most of the country will see near normal temps?

Oh...BTW...the normal high for Springfield, MO is 41...and they are calling for a high of 20 on Friday. That is 20 below normal. So...are they wrong (because you say they are supposed to be near normal).

Bottom line is you need to brush up on some arctic air forecasting. Go back and look at 1983. It was a classic example. The flow on Dec. 23 was zonal...east west...all the way from ND to the GOM. YEt...even though the upper flow was due east and no front would have ever made it into TExas with that flow...the siberian air plunged due south and stuck us in the deep-freeze. Siberian air behaves differently and this is SIberian air. IF you think that the country by and large will be near normal through Jan 22...than you are 1) not a very good forecaster...or 2) delusional

Oh...one last thing. The NWS is ND is going for lows Wed night of -20 with wind gusts over 50. That is a wind chill of -60. Then...by Friday...they are going for lows of <-30 and highs of -20.

I think I call that extreme.

YIKES. AIR FORCE MET I CALL THAT A WHIPPIN. WAS THERE A NEED FOR IT WHO KNOWS. BUT GOOD ANALYSIS.

Very true wxcrazy, but Air Force Met brings out some very good (and rather obvious points) about the upcoming pattern.

How much will FL get into the act, I am not really sure as i haven't looked much at models for that area, but the large majority of the country is going into the deep freeze for at least several days.

The weather service here is calling for highs in the low/mid 30s this weekend, 15 degrees below normal. That is not near records, but well below normal. Not to mention models are trending even colder lately, we could very well be 20+ degrees below normal at least during the weekend.

You also have a big severe weather event possible with this front, showing the sharp contrast in the airmasses.

Will this be a repeat of the much talked about blasts of 83, 89 among others? Probably not IMO, but it will be the coldest air of the season for many.

-30 lows in ND? Thats probably getting a little cold for even those folks!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Well, back in 1996, an Arctic Outbreak it -60F in Minnesota...

[Janie34]

Well, back in 1996, an Arctic Outbreak it -60F in Minnesota...

Don't I know it, Chris!! It was so cold you could take a bucket of water, throw it outside your back door, and watch it turn to ice almost literally before it hit the ground. It was fascinating to watch, but that kind of cold is brutal even for me, and I love cold weather.

[jkt21787]

Well, back in 1996, an Arctic Outbreak it -60F in Minnesota...

Don't I know it, Chris!! It was so cold you could take a bucket of water, throw it outside your back door, and watch it turn to ice almost literally before it hit the ground. It was fascinating to watch, but that kind of cold is brutal even for me, and I love cold weather.

Don't remember when or where, but I saw that exact demonstration done on Tv once before. The man threw the bucket up, and within 5 seconds the water fell to the ground frozen solid!

I don't think its ever been that cold here!

[Burn1]

Not delusional....just what I was stating TWO days ago by info I was looking at.....

Recently I trailed a few threads and shifted my thoughts to the east...
east of Texas and just north of the Gulf Coast....

Like a I stated a brief cool down end of next week, however I will revise
to now more extended.....We will cool of here in FL, but probably to just
below normal.....Probably colder than first thought though in the east.
I do not believe Tx is going to get this big shot of Siberian Air that so
many in the lonestar state are alluding to....

[Air Force Met]

Well, back in 1996, an Arctic Outbreak it -60F in Minnesota...

When temps are that cold...its the livestock that really suffers. I remember several years ago when it was dipping to -40 in the Dakotas...and the cow's ears were breaking off.

[Scorpion]

Once again we get axed. This Siberian airmass is gonna bring temperatures down to a shocking 53 degrees, but not before we get our warmest temps yet this winter, with highs in the low 80's and lows in the low 70's. I had hopes with this one too. Last one got us <30 and the high didn't even get to 45.

[Air Force Met]

I do not believe Tx is going to get this big shot of Siberian Air that so
many in the lonestar state are alluding to....

I don't a have a problem with disagreement...just give some reasoning behind it. Why do you think that this siberian airmass will behave differently than most other arctic airmasses?

Here is the 1983 outbreak: Even though the flow is zonal...the siberian air moved due south. The dashed green lines are the 1000mb heights. Notice how the high over NE moves due south...perpendicular to the upper flow and ends up in Texas.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... m=&dd=&hh=

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... m=&dd=&hh=