How cold could it get? (Texas)

[Air Force Met]

12z EURO has what will be close to record breaking high pressure ridging from the central plains down into Texas. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised how cold this air is going to be.

Checkout day 6 and 7 MSLP at Stormfury's site.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/ECMWF.html

I think so too. All you have to do is go back and look at 1963, 1978, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1989...etc...look at artic outrbreaks in Se Texas...go to plymouth.edu and look at the upper air patterns from those times...and you will see what is being set up.

Also....
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_144.jpg

Take a look at that. A 1054mb high in KS...and people think we will be a little below normal? Try 20-30 degrees below normal for lows and highs.

[krysof]

could it be colder than what they predict. Accuweather shows my area in the mid to upper 20's for highs though dry but weather.com shows my area in the low to mid 30's for highs. I'm really confused.

[Air Force Met]

could it be colder than what they predict. Accuweather shows my area in the mid to upper 20's for highs though dry but weather.com shows my area in the low to mid 30's for highs. I'm really confused.

I would go with accu-weather on this one. Weather.com is only giving you the NWS forecast...nothing else. Accuweather is giving you their own forecast to a certain extent (and some raw model output numbers later in the period).

I say it will be much colder than the NWS is thinking...at least here in Texas...SE TX in particular.

[Burn1]

So we will see how this plays out.....SE Texas lows in the teens and highs just above freezing ain't happenin'. Lows in 30's, and highs in the 50's
for a few days at best, then a moderate warmup as cold air gets entrenched to the east of Texas

[Air Force Met]

So we will see how this plays out.....SE Texas lows in the teens and highs just above freezing ain't happenin'. Lows in 30's, and highs in the 50's
for a few days at best, then a moderate warmup as cold air gets entrenched to the east of Texas

We'll see.

[jeff]

Very good points Airforce Met. You hit the nail on the head with the model's inability to forecast such cold air plunges ( Too far east and not cold enough). The GFS will catch on Thursday or so and dump its highs way low and NWS probably by Wed.

I would cut guidance by 20 for highs right now for Saturday and Sunday( would go mid 30's to near 40) and maybe about 5-8 for lows (low to mid 20's). Big question mark is possible cloud cover Saturday night into Sunday which could temper the lows and bust the highs. After Sunday big question marks with respect to additional surges and increasing moisture.

[aggiecutter]

Air Force Met, I dont know if you remember the thanksgiving day game between the Cowboys and Dolphins in the early 90's. It was the game where the field was covered with a couple inches of sleet and snow. This game is often referred to as the Leon Lett game. People who saw the game know why it's called that.

Anyway, that year there was a strong El-Nino with westerlies running rampant across the whole country during mid and late November. To say the flow was zonal at the time would be an understatement. Meanwhile, Alaska had been experiencing record breaking cold for the first part of the November. There was a lot of speculation by mets. across the country as to when or if that air would come down into the lower 48.

The consensus opinion was that air would either stay bottled up in Alaska or eventually retreat back over to Siberia. Around the beginning of thanskgiving week, a big chunk of the air broke-off and started moving south toward the US-Canadian border. Still, the majority of the mets kept saying the air would stay up in Canada because the strong westerly flow across the lower 48.

2 days later, the leading edge of the arctic air had already reached Northern Kansas and was heading south and spreading-out across the central plains. Still, no change in the forcast by local mets in Texas, eventhough it was obvious to everyone that the air mass wasn't going to stop until it hit the GOM.

Finally, on thanksgiving morning, all the weather services did a 180 on their forcast, but that was only after the front had already arrived in North Texas. Not only did the front make it down to Texas, it left a pretty good size ice storm in the northern part of the state in its wake. Thats when I learned my lesson on what dense, cold air masses of Siberian orgin can do inspite of the upper level flow. BTW, the upper flow this weekend is actually favorable for the air to go all the way to Mexico.

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met, I dont know if you remember the thanksgiving day game between the Cowboys and Dolphins in the early 90's. It was the game where the field was covered with a couple inches of sleet and snow. This game is often referred to as the Leon Lett game. People who saw the game know why it's called that.

Oh yeah...I will never forget that game. Lett should have known to not try and recover a blocked field goal.

I learned my lesson with arctic air in 1989 (the Feb outbreak...not the Dec one). The 1079mb monster that was up in Alaska. The flow was zonal...and I had been told by some experienced forecasters out at my base that that did not matter with arctic air...and that the high would slide south...just like syrup. As long as the upper flow is ridging over or near Alaska...and you have some cross polar flow to get it moving...it will do the rest.

Anyway...one of my profs at A&M embarrassed me in front of a class when I brought up the fact that we were going to get some arctic air in a week or so. He said no way because the upper flow was zonal (actually very strong from the WSW from the GOM to the northern plains). He said " YOu are a Freshman...what do YOU know?" Well...I was a freshman...but had been an active duty weather guy for a couple of years...but I held my tongue....for the moment.

Class was cancelled for 2 (or 3) days because of the ensuing ice storm. I asked him when we got back if he had slipped on any of the ice he said would not be there.

[gboudx]

That's funny about your prof. Did he take it light-hearted, or fail you?

[Air Force Met]

That's funny about your prof. Did he take it light-hearted, or fail you?

He was the assistant department head...Dr. Driscoll (some of you aggs will remember HIM). It was in front of a class...but it wasn't his class. It was Dr. Das's class. He was just out in the map area where we were when I made the comment. I never had him as a prof (thank God).

[JenyEliza]

Air Force Met, I dont know if you remember the thanksgiving day game between the Cowboys and Dolphins in the early 90's. It was the game where the field was covered with a couple inches of sleet and snow. This game is often referred to as the Leon Lett game. People who saw the game know why it's called that.

Oh yeah...I will never forget that game. Lett should have known to not try and recover a blocked field goal.

I learned my lesson with arctic air in 1989 (the Feb outbreak...not the Dec one). The 1079mb monster that was up in Alaska. The flow was zonal...and I had been told by some experienced forecasters out at my base that that did not matter with arctic air...and that the high would slide south...just like syrup. As long as the upper flow is ridging over or near Alaska...and you have some cross polar flow to get it moving...it will do the rest.

Anyway...one of my profs at A&M embarrassed me in front of a class when I brought up the fact that we were going to get some arctic air in a week or so. He said no way because the upper flow was zonal (actually very strong from the WSW from the GOM to the northern plains). He said " YOu are a Freshman...what do YOU know?" Well...I was a freshman...but had been an active duty weather guy for a couple of years...but I held my tongue....for the moment.

Class was cancelled for 2 (or 3) days because of the ensuing ice storm. I asked him when we got back if he had slipped on any of the ice he said would not be there.

Good story! I have family in CLL, and a relative works at A&M (not a Prof). I can see an Aggie Prof doing what he did.

Priceless the way you handled it upon return to classes! Priceless!

[krysof]

How is your reply related to this topic? Why am I being criticized because I was a little off topic. Are the moderators being prejedice of me?

[southerngale]

How is your reply related to this topic? Why am I being criticized because I was a little off topic. Are the moderators being prejedice of me?

Who's reply are you talking about? I just read the whole thread and it seems fine to me.

[Stormsfury]

How is your reply related to this topic? Why am I being criticized because I was a little off topic. Are the moderators being prejedice of me?

There's a flow to the topic and related to the discussion. The moderators are NEVER prejudice WRT any decisions made.

SF