Get Ready... Russia's a Coming!

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Get Ready... Russia's a Coming!

#1 Postby Guest » Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:10 pm

Not the actual Russian people.... But a Siberian air mass. Everyone East of the Rockies are gonna freeze their tushies off! :froze:

Highs will be well below zero in the upper plains... Maybe even into the Chicagoland area (slightly below zero... maybe). Well below freezing highs are also possible in the East... Maybe even into the DC area. We are talking about possible high's in the teens in DC and Philly. This would be one of the coldest scenario's however, as it currently looks favorable for upper 20's. Lows will be in the teens... and if the colder setup occurs maybe even below zero. Boston and NYC should easily experience highs in the low 20's... and maybe upper single digits for Boston IF the colder scenario prevails. Everyone will get cold from this one, but if we get sub-zero readins in the Mid-Atlantic remains to be seen....

With this patter now, there is a chance that the big cities could experience some snow as a system rides up the arctic front... some snow could also form behind the front. Don't look for much snow however, as this pattern should be cold and dry. (February could be another story- cold and snowy).
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#2 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jan 09, 2005 10:07 pm

Maybe it will punch down here and give us a shot at below 40 :wink: . Haven't had any temps that cold all winter.
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#3 Postby Guest » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:39 pm

Update: Highs now look to stick around the lower 20's for DC and Philly. Possibly a light snow event as well could be coming down the pike. High's in the 30's look likely for the extended period as well. Low's may dip into the single digits in the burbs as well with the latest model guidance!
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#4 Postby AnthonyC » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:44 pm

But as you see, the pattern isn't very amplified thus the arctic air won't make it very far south...but the northeast could be in the deep freeze for quite awhile.
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#5 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:47 pm

Yes, NWS is calling for low 20's for a high, I think more like mid-high teens, with lows arond 0F to -5F..... THIS IS SIBERIAN COLD, not CANADIAN COLD...... EVEN WITHOUT SNOWCOVER, we could still hit 0 or -5F :eek:
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#6 Postby sertorius » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:55 pm

It's funny: the 18z GFS has really lessened the cold for the central plains compared to earlier runs-then, at 180 hours, places us in a bonified snow storm with colder temps. behind it than what we are supp. to have this weekend. I saved the images just because it is the best looking sytem that the Kansas City/Lawrence has been progged for the whole year and the fact that by the 0z run, it will be gone daddy gone-the gfs is really having problems currently-As late as Friday's 18z run, the gfs had our surface temp. at 55 today-I'm in a winter weather advisory with a temp of 31 and fr. drizzle!! Our high today was 33!!!
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#7 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jan 10, 2005 9:59 pm

18z GFS most times is WAY off from everything else, many times people say to completely ignore it.

Not to mention it IS the GFS.
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#8 Postby wxguy25 » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:02 pm

and you could toss tonight's data also.

102
NOUS42 KWNO 110130
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0127 UTC TUE JAN 11 2005

110127Z...00Z MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME. DATA
COVERAGE WAS GOOD...WITH NO MEXICAN REPORTS
AVAILABLE.
14 AK/29 CANADIAN/71 CONUS AND 2
CARIBBEAN REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE THOUGH.

ETA RAOB RECAP...

MFL/72202 - REPORT DELAYED FOR THE ETA...10143.
RECEIVED IN TIME FOR THE GFS.
CHS/72208 - FLIGHT EQ FAILURE...10158.

WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP
NNNN
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#9 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:04 pm

wxguy25 wrote:and you could toss tonight's data also.

102
NOUS42 KWNO 110130
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0127 UTC TUE JAN 11 2005

110127Z...00Z MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME. DATA
COVERAGE WAS GOOD...WITH NO MEXICAN REPORTS
AVAILABLE.
14 AK/29 CANADIAN/71 CONUS AND 2
CARIBBEAN REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE THOUGH.

ETA RAOB RECAP...

MFL/72202 - REPORT DELAYED FOR THE ETA...10143.
RECEIVED IN TIME FOR THE GFS.
CHS/72208 - FLIGHT EQ FAILURE...10158.

WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP
NNNN


Well that's nice to hear...
How exactly will the models respond to that in terms to its solutions?
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#10 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:22 pm

AnthonyC wrote:But as you see, the pattern isn't very amplified thus the arctic air won't make it very far south...but the northeast could be in the deep freeze for quite awhile.


The upper air pattern doesn't have to be amplified for arctic air to make it south. But...the upper pattern is very amplified by the end of the weak. There is a large upper high and ridge over Alaska.

Here is the chart from the 1983 outbreak (as I posted on another thread):

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... m=&dd=&hh=

The pattern is not amplified here either...but we know what happened. Here is another arctic outbreak that did not have a deep trough pushing the arctic air into TX...from 1989 (Feb)

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... m=&dd=&hh=

Compair those to the forecast:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

and you will see they are similiar.

You need the ridging into Alaska (or west of there) and the cross polar flow. It can be zonal all the way in the CONUS and the arctic air will plunge south. 1055mb highs don't like to go east :-) they go south.
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#11 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:31 pm

:froze: :cold:

The strange thing is... this is normal for January, but it's been so freaking nice lately.
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#12 Postby Miss Mary » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:36 pm

Hey, I am 1977 and 1978 Winter Vet here.......so I know firsthand how brutal winter can be in the Ohio Valley. Cincy's temps of late and days of rain, so much so that we're experiencing flooding now, are not usual for mid-January. So when I heard cold temps were coming, I said it's about time!

Please don't ask me dates, someone here will be able to look them up, but I remember one 3 day span back then, that actual low temps were -25, -25 and -24. One day the high was only -9. We all thought the next ice stage was starting up! We didn't see lawns for 3 full months one of those winters either, b/c of repeated snowfall and temps below 32.

Mary
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#13 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:56 pm

Jan of 1977 was really cold around the 17th for you...and us. Of course...we only got down to 22...but that is pretty cold for us.
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#14 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Jan 10, 2005 11:45 pm

AirForceMet, the upper air pattern of 83'and what is projected for this weekend are almost identical.
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#15 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Jan 11, 2005 12:49 am

AirForceMet, the upper air pattern of 83'and what is projected for this weekend are almost identical.


1983? I think what plants and vegetation didn't get whipped out by the snow and cold in December will bite the dust this time if it is a dry front.

1983 and 1989 are scary thoughts. But it makes for interesting observation and disscussion and being older and appreciting the dynamics behind these systems and the fact, history often does repeat itself in weather events is cool too.
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#16 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Jan 11, 2005 9:58 am

aggiecutter wrote:AirForceMet, the upper air pattern of 83'and what is projected for this weekend are almost identical.


The big difference is that in 1983 the polar vortex was sitting over the dakotas. It will be further north...but the pattern is more amplified.

I noticed the cold air is really building in Alaska now. -50 in eastern Alaska and below -40 for a large portion of it.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_temp_na.html
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#17 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:10 am

Local mets around here are saying not that cold for the weekend and that there will be a second surge of cold air coming in the middle of next week. Still the temps. for next week are not that unusually cold. Are they missing something in the forecast? Please inform.
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#18 Postby Janie34 » Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:21 am

LaBreeze wrote:Local mets around here are saying not that cold for the weekend and that there will be a second surge of cold air coming in the middle of next week. Still the temps. for next week are not that unusually cold. Are they missing something in the forecast? Please inform.


They are probably hedging their bets and waiting to see if the crack-addled GFS gets in line with other guidance.
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#19 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:32 am

Janie34 wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:Local mets around here are saying not that cold for the weekend and that there will be a second surge of cold air coming in the middle of next week. Still the temps. for next week are not that unusually cold. Are they missing something in the forecast? Please inform.


They are probably hedging their bets and waiting to see if the crack-addled GFS gets in line with other guidance.


Exactly. They are following the GFS guidance. Why? Don't know...it has been pretty bad with the last few artic airmasses.
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#20 Postby adelphi_sky » Tue Jan 11, 2005 12:53 pm

All I wanna know is where is the snow? And yes, I meant that to rhyme. :-)
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