Tornado Outbreak for the Central USA?

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

wondeirng something...Anyone can comment..Sometime overnight on tuesday into wendesday it looks like a setup for a severe weather outbreak..a triple point nearing kansas, also with warm temps, alot of moisture, a fast jet, with a fast Low level jet seems possible that thunderstorms will be possible, and very severe in oklaohma, kansas, kansas city, okalhoma city, SE oklahoma, all that area around that time...Any comments? This pattern looks more like May!!

TC

[Guest]

The Saturday issuance of Day 3 SPC Outlook (Tuesday), mention elevated thunderstorms are possible, but it appears AT THIS TIME, that instability may be slight. However, it is likely wind shear will be favorable for rotation, particularly over Oklahoma and south Kansas, perhaps as far north as Kansas City/Topeka before a cold blas moves south later in the week. Something to keep an eye on.

[michaelwmoss]

It's definately more of a possibility now. A LARGE Slight Risk For Day 2:

Yep even in January. Slight Risk For Day 2:


548
ACUS02 KWNS 110652
SWODY2
SPC AC 110651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
GLS 45 NE CLL 45 ENE DAL 40 SSW TUL 25 NW CNU 20 ESE STJ 35 ENE LWD
OTM 20 NNW BRL 35 SW PIA 10 SSW MVN 35 NNE MKL 30 WSW CBM 40 E MCB
40 SW HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND
MID MS VALLEY...

AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NRN CA WILL OPEN
AND ACCELERATE QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH
TX AND OK EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND
MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS LIKELY REACHING ECNTRL OK AND ECNTRL TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF FOCUSED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE INSTABILITY AND LIFT
FOR RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MO...SE KS AND NRN AR. THE STORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY EXPAND SWD ACROSS ERN OK...NE TX AND LA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE BAND OF ASCENT OVERTAKES THE FRONT CAUSING SQUALL-LINE
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z THU ACROSS WRN AR SHOW ABOUT 70 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL PUNCH QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS OK
INTO SE KS...SW MO AND WRN AR BY THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS THAT
FORM NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS PLUME ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. DUE TO STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...WIND DAMAGE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INITIATE ACROSS SE KS...NE OK...MO
AND AR. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AND EXPAND SWD ACROSS
NE TX...SE OK AND LA AS THE SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES DURING THE
EVENING. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS UPON
INITIATION AND WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE SQUALL-LINE
ORGANIZES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD REACHING
WRN IL...WRN TN AND WRN MS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 01/11/2005

What do you all think? Hail and wind mostly? Maybe some Tornadoes when the storms first start developing?

[Fred Gossage]

I think that if the Arkansas area gets a little midday sunshine, they may get VERY active.... We'll have to wait and see if SPC upgrades the Arkansas area to a Moderate Risk tomorrow....

[michaelwmoss]

Yep. I don't think any major severe is going to happen today. Have to wait for the larger, more potent system