Severe Weather for Texas?

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ETXHAMXYL
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Severe Weather for Texas?

#1 Postby ETXHAMXYL » Tue Jan 11, 2005 1:00 pm

The NWS out of Ft Worth has posted info about some Severe Weather for People in ETX on Wed. However it is very confusing about when the possible timing for the weather to happen. Several days ago they mentioned it happening in the afternoon, but now it isn't so clear as to the timing. I see where the front has come down into north Texas but they NWS say it will retreat north. They also seem to be backing way off of the actual artic air making it here and say it will cool down but the front will be of Mountain origin and not Artic.
I am so confused and trust y'all on here more than the NWS. I can't see how the coldest air dropping out of Canada with such high readings isn't going to just barrel down the Center of the Country and Hit Texas Head on this Weekend.
Since I storm spot for our local Ham Radio Club, I wished we had a little better warning or even a guess at the timing of the severe weather. That way we won't be caught off guard. I know I am no where near even an amateur weather hobbist, but common sense tells me with all the difference in temps and the way the jet stream is going that there has to be some big storms blowing up somewhere in Texas.
Can anyone here do a bit better on the timing or severity of these possible storms to come? Also on why they are backing way off from the temps? Even our local mets are split with some going very cold only at a slow rate day by day and others say it won't be as bad.
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#2 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jan 11, 2005 1:11 pm

.1050 AM UPDATE...
WE WILL UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...FOR
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON PRESSURE
FALLS SHOULD SLOW THE FRONT. IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AS A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY COULD
BRING SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES...AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FORMS...AND AFFECTS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS COULD LINE OUT EARLY. THUS...ANY TORNADO/HIGH
WIND THREAT MAY COME IN WHATEVER BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THE STORMS ARE
IN A DISCRETE (MORE ISOLATED) MODE.

THE TEMPERATURES IN FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND PERIOD APPEAR TO BE TOO
COLD AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT SHOULD PULL MORE MOUNTAIN
AIR INTO TEXAS 9RATHER THAN ARCTIC AIR)...WHICH WILL WARM SOMEWHAT
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WE WILL LOOK AT THIS PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND LIKELY RAISE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR
DAYS 3-5.


The second part of this forecast don't look right to me, IF the GFS is playing the colder air off to the east there will still be a backdoor effect for NTX as the cold air will be from the NE and not the NW?
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#3 Postby ETXHAMXYL » Tue Jan 11, 2005 1:27 pm

I agree with you Capt. Crunch...This update is very confusing. Are they also saying that the severe weather will happen tonight instead of tomorrow? I also don't understand how they will raise the temps up with all the data that is out there saying otherwise? If they are wrong about this and it turns out far colder or more severe than theyare saying we are going to be caught off guard. I know its hard predicting cold here in Texas but they have completely gone upside down with this forecast statement. They have the artic air retreating or at least that what it sounds like to me. I wonder what other NWS offices around the state or up in OKl are saying. Are they all in agreement with the FTW office? Would be interesting to see what others are saying.
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#4 Postby Johnny » Tue Jan 11, 2005 1:32 pm

My question is...what the heck is mountain air? I've never heard that termed used before...at least as far as cold fronts are concerned.
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#5 Postby jeff » Tue Jan 11, 2005 1:34 pm

Forecast severe weather parameters for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

These indicies are for those areas along and E of I-35 into AR and LA.

Inversion: weakening CIN to near 0 by 0Z Wednesday (600pm) north of I-10 with -50 to -100 CIN south of I-10.

Helicity: 200 to 300 over NE TX into AR and LA.

LI: -2 to -3 over E TX with near zero south of I-10.

CAPE: 500-1000 over E TX into AR and LA

Decent 500mb and 700mb vertical motion with good forcing along the frontal boundary.

500mb vort max over E OK trialing into EC TX Wed PM.

Low level jet of 45-55kts from the SSW from Matagorda Bay into C AR, with a 100-120kts mid level jet nosing in above that level. Good shear with veering and increasing with height.

Given the linear nature of the frontal forcing and strong shear I suspect isolated supercells will fire along and E of I-35 around 300pm Wed and quickly evolve into a squall line by the time they reach I-45. Strong jet energy will likely be brought to the surface with straight line winds the biggest threats. Bows and LEWPS will also be possible where some of this wind energy comes toward the surface. Isolated tornadoes will be possible ahead of the line with any supercells that develop within the low level jet and WAA regime, and at the head of the commas within the bow segments.

Capping south of I-10 may be hard to overcome unless we get more moistening or heating than currently forecast, so the line should quickly tapper off toward the SW to showers. Upstream water vapor suggest increasing cirrus over TX which may inhibit heating. However, if the heating should be greater and the instability higher, the tornado threat will be greater.

Storms should fire along I-35 between 300pm and 500pm and race ENE through E TX and AR/LA. Intensifying squall line should reach the TX/LA border before midnight and continue on through LA overnight. Air mass modification over the SE US has not been as great and the ridge may not give too much ground, so I suspect a gradual weakening of the squall line as it moves through MS and AL Thursday with the severe threat becoming more isolated.

Greatest severe threat right now appears to be from NE OK SW along and E of I-35 in TX to I-10 and then E in C LA and most of AR. Fully agree with SPC slight risk area and unless more heating happens than is currently forecast I see no need for a moderate risk (unless conditions become a little more favorable for more widespread damaging winds ....and they may).
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#6 Postby ETXHAMXYL » Tue Jan 11, 2005 1:43 pm

Thanks Jeff for your reply...at least I know about the timing. I get off of work around 3:30pm so it sounds like I will be ready to do some spotting tomorrow about that time.
I still can't get how split the local mets are in their forecasts for the weekend. Two channels have us in the 40's for Friday and back up close to 60 by Sunday and Monday. The other two have us in the 30's by Sunday. Ive seen them split before on temps but not such a wide spread between them.
Guess Texas weather is that way...Mother Nature is a Woman so I guess she can change her mind as often as she wants. LOL
Thanks again for the severe possiblity reply....Hope to go spotting tomorrow.
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#7 Postby jeff » Tue Jan 11, 2005 2:33 pm

Looking at the WV, my timing may be a little too fast. May not see development until 500pm or later. It will surely be evening into the overnight hours.
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#8 Postby ETXHAMXYL » Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:34 pm

I don't understand this...weatherunderground shows that on Sat. the high will be 36 on the little visual 5 day outlook, yet in the detail outlook that runs down below it has the highs in the 50's on Sat. Why the two different forecast for both days on the same site? Are they just trying to cover themselves?
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#9 Postby misty » Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:38 pm

Thanks Jeff that gives me some idea when we can expect the storms, and I will be home snuggled up!!
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