NWS Birmingham, AL

[JenyEliza]

000
FXUS64 KBMX 112151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED PERLIM NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
350 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2005

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY TRIES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR SLIPS MORE EAST THAN SOUTHEAST. THAT LEAVES US WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER (COMPARED TO THE EARLY MONTH WARM SPELL)...BUT COOLER IN THE "NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL" SENSE RATHER THAN THE "ARCTIC PLUNGE/COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON" SENSE.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THINGS TURN QUITE TRICKY. SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SITUATE ITSELF IN THE NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY IN PRIME WEDGE-PRODUCING REAL ESTATE. GFS DOES THE BEST IT CAN TO HINT AT A WEDGE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND I THINK IT WOULD BE BEST TO ADD SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST.

THE 12Z (AND LAST NIGHTS 06Z) GFS ALSO SHOWS A BIG SWATH OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH HERE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A MYSTERY FEATURE...BUT IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN IT COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE EFFECT (IN SITU OR OTHERWISE). WILL ADD SMALL CHANCE POPS TO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WATCH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.&&