Kansas City/Lawrence ideas mid week

[sertorius]

I must edit this: The ETA data I was using was actually the 18z not the 0z: The 0z is the same for temps. but with less precip. so the forcast below is in doubt as far as precip goes, but temps. are ok!! Sorry about that!! Not even sure where to begin-this week is just a mess and to be honest I have no business even trying to comment on it, but since I need a break from making PowerPoints I'll give it a go. I'm not ready to really commit on any def. solution (accept that it will be cold Thursday and beyond!!!!) but I'll give it a shot anyways!!! Please be kind in your responses

1. Tonight and Tomorrow: We are now heading below freezing and look to have some more fr. drizzle this evening and fog-tomorrow morning could be a bear driving to KC as the cold road temps. will ice pretty quickly once we hit 29 and we should hit 26 or so.

2. The 0z Tuesaday run of the ETA is quite interesting-it only has us above freezing from 21z Wednesday to 0z on Thursday-the precip. does not really begin untill 0z hours Thursday morning and continues thru 15z on Thursday-according to this run, all the precip we see here will be frozen and it has us in 1/4 inch band at 3z to 6z. It also has us close to a pretty good band of snow at 15z on Thursday which lasts untill almost 18z Thursday night. The UKMET also is in the same ball park as the eta esp. on surface temps. If the eta verifies, we could be looking at some more pretty good icing here in the Lawrence/KC area on WEednesday Night into Thursday. Not 1/2 to 1inch icing, but maybe in the 1/4 inch range with the possibility of 1-2 inches of snow-Def. enough to possibly issue winter advisories (prob. not warnings) and make travel pretty darn tough.

3. The GFS is almost polar opposite of the eta-it has us close to 60 degrees Wednesday with possible thunderstorms then some back side furries on Thursday-it is much quicker and further North than the eta and on this run the 18z has again changed the depth of the cold air for Friday-Sunday. (One interesting thing: For the 180 hour, there is a full blown snow storm over my area and it is bringing down colder air next week than this week over us!!) In defense of the GFS, the 12z euro does seem to bring the low much further north than on the 0z run and races it to the great lakes by Thursday-thus, the gfs and euro seem to be similar-how ironic is that!!

I really think one has to follow the ETA-it had a much better handle on what was happening for today all the way back to Friday (the gfs had us in the 50's today at the surface on Friday) and has had the same solution for the past 3 days-it's only changes seem to be the precip shield as we are in a bit more on Thursday. Don't miss read me-I'm not trying to turn this into a massive event for this area-but if one follows the eta, it is much more of an event than what the gfs has depicted. thus, my forcast for tonight-Friday:

Tonight: drizzle/fr. drizzle losw about 26
Tuesday: Drizzle/Fr. Drizzle High of 34-low 25
Wednesday: Cloudy high 38 with temps. holding steady untill about 11:00 P.M.-chance of rain turning to fr. rain-max I mean max 1/4 inch
Thursday: Fr. rain turning to snow by 2:00 P.M. with 1-2 inches possible-winds strong from the North low dropping to 10 degrees.

What could bust: well, now that I am totally in with the ETA, it will prob. switch to the gfs idea on the next run lol!!! No, what could happen, is that the front that passed thru here yesterday and is now over Northern Oklahoma could easily come back as a warm front-esp. if that low tracks either North of us or on top of us-if that happens, this forcast is a total bust and we do have thunderstorms Wednesday. I really do believe the ETA is on this-the main reason is the consitencey of the past 3 days worth of runs and the fact that it nailed Yesterday and Today as far back as Friday-the GFS failed miserably for these two days. We shall see-what ever the case, this week should be interesting-we have just dropped a degree in 5 min. and are now below freezing. I hope this makes sense.

[jkt21787]

You pretty much made sense

Looks pretty good for your area, obviously the models have big differences (what else is new) and its quite hard to forecast these kinds of things, especially the marginal nature of it and the uncertainty on temps/precip type.

Your area has really had more of an icy winter so far hasn't it? Maybe you'll get some more snow sooner or later.

What is your NWS saying about the arctic outbreak on its way?

[sertorius]

JKT21787:

Thanks for the reply and kind words Yea-we have had about 9 inces of snow, one inch of sleet and and 3/4 inch of ice!!! Our biggest snow was in November-I still think we will have one this winter that is mostly snow-hey the gfs at 190 hours????? yea and I have some beach property here in Lawrence Kansas to sell ya!!! Our NWS has really gone with the eta and sees us possibly having another ice event and then highs in the lower teens and a few lows getting close to 0. For sure, the next 3-8 days will be cold!!!

[Guest]

One television station in my city says 10 BELOW for lows late this week. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.............................

[sertorius]

NEWeatherguy: How ever the precip falls and the Wed. temps. may be in doubt, but I think all can agree that from Thursday morning-Monday at least, it will be as cold as it has been a good long while here-interesting run of the 18z gfs today-if just once the gfs could verify a storm??????

[sertorius]

Good morning!! Must give props to the gfs-it seems now as though the warm front will actually make a pretty good run on us tomorrow!! I am still not toally convinced of this and think future model trends are important and to watch the wind direction and temps. for the next 36 hours!!

1. The GFS has the same solution itt has for the past 2 days-massive warm up here tomorrow for about 10 hours then the cold shot begins aroung 3z hours on Thursday-via the gfs, we are all liquid with a few wrap around flurries Thursday morning. It is also interesting that the gfs on the 06z and 0z runs has really backed off the severe cold for this weekend-below normal yes, cold yes, but not the brutal cold that it showed 3 days ago. It has that next week-more on that later

2. The ETA, just as i quipped last night, has indeed turned to a warmer solution for tomorrow and down graded our precip quite a bit-the eta is still much colder at the surface than the gfs and has the low tracking to our south (a bit further south than the gfs) thus, we could hit maybe 40 tomorrow aand then begin to cool down rapidly at 0z Thursday.

3. The oz EURO to me is the new fly in the ointment-it once again brings the low into southern Kansas and has it travel east to the Missouri/Kansas border before heading it quickly up north. If the low travels this far south or a bit further south than the eta, then we will not get above freezing and all our precip will be frozen.

I am still not totally sold on the gfs solution and am interested to see the next few runs of the models: esp. the ETA and see how it trends today in regards to the local temps. Two reasons for this: 1. The EURO has changed its track of the storm much further south on the 0z run-could this be a bad run? Yes, but I think it makes it worth keeping an eye on the situation. 2. The cold air is in place and the models have had troubles dealing with this factor for the past week. These two things aside, I think it is more likely that the warm front makes it to this area or at least w/in 20-30 miles of us and warms us up and puts the bulk of our precip. as liquid. I just think, the situation could change quickly and still needs to be watched. I would change my Wed. forcast to partly cloudy-high around 44 with rain beginning in the afternoon-no t-storms for me, possibly 20-30 miles South of me-then rain changing briefly to fr. rain and flurries after about mid night with temps. falling

Finally for next week: It seems to me that the uro and gfs are both showing an interesting trend for next week-both have reduced the cold for this weekend, but have showed that the cold air will be in place thru out most of next week and both form a low over the 4 corners area around Monday/Tuesday. This bears watching for further development-prob. will be nothing, but it is there. They also have the coldest air in place early next week esp. the gfs. As of now, next week looks much more interesting than it did 3 days ago!!!

Thanks for reading-these are just thoughts from a Latin teacher-they are most likely way off, but it is how I see things this morning. The next 48 hours could be quite a ride-esp. North of here I mean even 40 miles North of here!!!!!

[sertorius]

I figured I'd stick some observations in this thread so I don't clog the board up!! Not a great night to be a met in this area-it appears the freezing line will set up right around I-70 for the next 20 hours or so. For Kansas City, that means areas by KCI (where my parents live) could see mostly freezing precip but areas south of the river could be all liquid. Personally, I live about 3 miles south of !-70 (Kansas Turn Pike) so it will be close for my house as well-I am currently at 28 degrees with fr. frizzle and still a north east wind. I am thinking that I will prob. go way above freezing in the next 5-6 hours, but it really depends on that warm front. The GFS takes it all the way past St. Joe Missouri, but the ETA sets it up right around the Missouri River and I-70. This is what makes it fascinating to live in this area and also exemplifies why we have so many winter heart breaks in this area!!
The 18z GFS still has us with a chance of fairly good snow early next week and keeps us in the cold for about 6-7 days. The euro is hinting at the same thing so the next 6-7 days could be interesting around here.

[sertorius]

Good morning-a couple quick observations-our temp. it still at 31-we still have several icy patches on the streets and side walks, but nothing real serious-this stomr def. is more of a liquid event for us but, if the eta is correct, we could have 3-4 hours of some solid frozen precip. I was thinking about something: in 1996, we had a simialr set up as this: a low was comming in and we had a massive warm up before it hit and had a line of very strong t-storms develop at about 6:00 P.M.-even after the rain moved thru, we were still in the 50's-by 6:00 A.M., we had strong North winds and heavey sleet and snow-we wound up with 6 inches of snow with that storm-is this the same deal-most likely not, but this low, by the eta and ukmet, is taking a very similar track. We could be surprised if a heavier band of precip. sets up behind this and with the temp. gradient developing here, it would not be a shock if that happens. Just some food for thought.

Looking ahead a bit: the gfs (and I haven't looked at the euro) for the 5th run now, is bringing in a pretty good wave on the next cold shot Sunday/Monday and wants to give us 3-4 inches of snow-will be interesting to watch. Also, the gfs, while we do have moderation, continues to bring down cold shots thru out next week into the following week with a couple of chances of snow-I'm not bying the precip (Monday it might be onto something) but the gfs has not been terrible with trends this winter. I would have to say that my little neck of the woods is looking at some chances of winter weather for the next 7-10 days. I don't mean that every day will be brutally cold-there will be some days in the 40's but also some in the 20's-teens range and maybe some precip. I think it is at least something to be on the look out for for the next 10 days or so. If that verfies, then we can chalk this up to a darn fine winter for here-it has been a long time since we've had 2-3 weeks of possible winter weather and a chance is all anyone who likes snow can ask for in this area!!