It's -65F at Burwash Airport in NW Yukon Terr.

[Air Force Met]

Folks...that is COLD. There are lot's of areas up there below -50.

Chandalar Lake, AK is also reporting a temp of -65F.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_temp_na.html

[GalvestonDuck]

"And that's all I have to say about that." ~Forrest Gump

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Beach Weather.......

For a seal or polar bear.

[Air Force Met]

OK...now it is -67F

[WXextreme]

OK...now it is -67F

In the middle of the day! I know, not much day in the winter.

[Johnny]

AFM, I see you have changed your tone somewhat on the arctic air coming this far south and how cold it will be or not be. That cold up in Alaska has got to go somewhere. Back in '83 and '89...what were the temps in Alaska like before that cold air pushed southward?

[Cat5survivor]

that is heading Minneapolis way by tomorrow. Right now it's sleeting and FINALLY snowing!

[aggiecutter]

We're fixin to see a big bust on the projected temps by the models in the southern plains. In some places the error will be as much as 20-30 degrees. All the models, including the EURO, are doing a poor job of handling the density and trajectory of the Siberian air. As AirForceMet has pointed on several theads, those Siberian highs coming out of Alaska and the Northwest Provinces of Canada dont get shunted off to the east, especially with a strong northwesterly flow from those regions down into the central plains. Those highs will come down the front range of the Rockies and settle down into the southern plains, not the midwest and Ohio valley.

[WXextreme]

We're fixin to see a big bust on the projected temps by the models in the southern plains. In some places the error will be as much as 20-30 degrees. All the models, including the EURO, are doing a poor job of handling the density and trajectory of the Siberian air. As AirForceMet has pointed on several theads, those Siberian highs coming out of Alaska and the Northwest Provinces of Canada dont get shunted off to the east, especially with a strong northwesterly flow from those regions down into the central plains. Those highs will come down the front range of the Rockies and settle down into the southern plains, not the midwest and Ohio valley.

Why does everyone seem to think that the cold air has to sink south. I can remember many occasions when I had my hopes up for some brutally cold to come all the way south only to be disappointed that it stayed to the north then eventually headed to the EAST.
Every MET in my area is saying we will miss the brunt of the cold because it will be staying to our north then heading off to the EAST.

[Air Force Met]

The biggest reason is source region. If you look at North American temps now...you will see how the cold air is dammed up against the Alaskan range eastern slopes of the Rockies. The times you remember when really cold air was north...the source region was probably northern Canada. In those cases...the air usually does head east. Right now...the arctic air is under NWly flow and this should get it moving. The only thing it is lacking at the moment is some rather high sfc pressures. The temps are there...but the pressures are only 1044 or so.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_temp_na.html

[Aslkahuna]

Really cold dense air goes where it pleases with no regard for the upper level flow. Perfect case in point being the February 1989 blast which came all of the way down despite SW flow aloft. These big dense cold domes take the fastest downhill trajectory they can when they are dislodged and that just happens to be the Yukon-TX track. In 1989 the cold air actually backdoored into AZ and we wound up with freezing rain (a rare event in SE AZ) when ST flow overran the shallow cold air (before the front came in, SW winds gusting over 60 mph fanned a wildfire on Post almost into Sierra Vista).

Steve

[rainstorm]

all the indications i see show the cold air heading se in a dry stormless fashion that cuts off the gom moisture. we will see soon enough, but i will be willing to bet that the cold is very transitory in the southern plains, and we will see after a day or 2 of the frontal passage a situation where rapid city is well above normal temps, and chi is below normal. this is a dry pattern upcoming

[Air Force Met]

Really cold dense air goes where it pleases with no regard for the upper level flow. Perfect case in point being the February 1989 blast which came all of the way down despite SW flow aloft. These big dense cold domes take the fastest downhill trajectory they can when they are dislodged and that just happens to be the Yukon-TX track. In 1989 the cold air actually backdoored into AZ and we wound up with freezing rain (a rare event in SE AZ) when ST flow overran the shallow cold air (before the front came in, SW winds gusting over 60 mph fanned a wildfire on Post almost into Sierra Vista).

Steve

Exactly. 1989 was a perfect example (the Feb shot...with the 1079 high)...and 1983...which had zonal flow all the way from Mexico to the Dakotas...but yet high after high kept diving south.

That is why I have been saying that the models have to be taken with a little grain of salt. Climo says these cold airmasses that come out of Siberia and AK...once they begin to move out of the Yukon...they like to go south...not east.

[Burn1]

More garbage maps! lol.....

[url]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/814day/

[/url]

[frankthetank]

Why does someone who lives in LA get sad when a (as JB terms it) superfront full of Arctic air comes down, but someone who lives in WI (say me) hate it when Arctic air comes down...?

I really only hate it when it stays more then a week...then i have to start thinking about second mortgages and refinancing to pay for the nat. gas bill...

[Brent]

Really cold dense air goes where it pleases with no regard for the upper level flow. Perfect case in point being the February 1989 blast which came all of the way down despite SW flow aloft. These big dense cold domes take the fastest downhill trajectory they can when they are dislodged and that just happens to be the Yukon-TX track. In 1989 the cold air actually backdoored into AZ and we wound up with freezing rain (a rare event in SE AZ) when ST flow overran the shallow cold air (before the front came in, SW winds gusting over 60 mph fanned a wildfire on Post almost into Sierra Vista).

Steve

Exactly. 1989 was a perfect example (the Feb shot...with the 1079 high)...and 1983...which had zonal flow all the way from Mexico to the Dakotas...but yet high after high kept diving south.

That is why I have been saying that the models have to be taken with a little grain of salt. Climo says these cold airmasses that come out of Siberia and AK...once they begin to move out of the Yukon...they like to go south...not east.

I hope your right... I'm sick of these 60's and 70's in the dead of winter.

The temperatures in Alaska are TOO cold though. I just want it cold enough to snow. I don't think it can snow(at least not heavily) when it's -50 or lower.

[rainstorm]

latest indications still show a se movement into the us

[W13]

Really cold dense air goes where it pleases with no regard for the upper level flow. Perfect case in point being the February 1989 blast which came all of the way down despite SW flow aloft. These big dense cold domes take the fastest downhill trajectory they can when they are dislodged and that just happens to be the Yukon-TX track. In 1989 the cold air actually backdoored into AZ and we wound up with freezing rain (a rare event in SE AZ) when ST flow overran the shallow cold air (before the front came in, SW winds gusting over 60 mph fanned a wildfire on Post almost into Sierra Vista).

Steve

Exactly. 1989 was a perfect example (the Feb shot...with the 1079 high)...and 1983...which had zonal flow all the way from Mexico to the Dakotas...but yet high after high kept diving south.

That is why I have been saying that the models have to be taken with a little grain of salt. Climo says these cold airmasses that come out of Siberia and AK...once they begin to move out of the Yukon...they like to go south...not east.

I hope your right... I'm sick of these 60's and 70's in the dead of winter.

The temperatures in Alaska are TOO cold though. I just want it cold enough to snow. I don't think it can snow(at least not heavily) when it's -50 or lower.

Yes, once you get below -30 or so, things are usually already clear. Then, if a storm does come along, most of the time it doesn't even fall with those cold temperatures. The only thing you can really get a -50 or colder is Ice Fog (aka Freezing Fog), which is exactly what fairbanks had all day today and will continue to have into tommorow.

[sertorius]

Just a quick reply in regards to the models: For sure, both the euro and the gfs show this as a 3-4 day event even for the central plains-the gfs has totally flip flopped on yesterday's solutions for next week and has me in the 50's by Wednesday. Good for them-they may be right. However, the points made in this thread need to be given serious consideration as does the poor performance of both the gfs and the euro on the cold air these past two weeks. Both the gfs and the euro tracked this low tonight north of me-well, the low is in Oklahoma-why-cold air stayed in place over Kansas from Wichita north. The gfs and euro both had be in the 50's today-Lawrence reached 32 with freezing drizzle most of the day-KCI north of the river in Kansas City never made it above 32 today. Last week, both the gfs and euro progged the cold air to be out of here before the ice storm hit-well it stayed-in the past 10 days, I have been above freezing for prob. about 23 hours tops-if you looked at the model progs, I should have only been below freezing for about 3 days. The only model to really latch onto this was the eta-it set the freezing line at I-70 and that is exactly where it set up. I'm not nec. saying the models are incorrect-they must be taked seriously-but you can't put all your eggs into them either-follow temp. trends and watch-the winds in Lawrence never did turn to the south today-if you believ the euro and gfs, I should of had south winds for 36 hours. I really think Air Force Met and aggie cutter are onto something here-just my 2 cents.

[aggiecutter]

This is funny. The 0z operational GFS brings back the 1052mb high to the plains on monday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml