Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

[TT-SEA]

What a warm night!!

I see it is STILL (at 6 a.m.) 42 degrees all the way up in Bellingham. Snoqualmie Pass is reporting 32 degrees at an elevation of 3000+ feet.

R-Dub - I see the convergence zone is forming now right over your location but it is probably still too warm for snow. I would imagine most of your snow melted during the night.

Kind of funny that we were all waiting for snow yesterday evening only to have temperatures shoot up to 40 degrees and above!!

Anyways... the convergence zone will move south today but I have serious doubts about its ability to drop accumulating snow on the lowlands. The new ETA based MM5 does NOT show a secondary convergence any more so for places north of Everett the precipitation should be over by mid-morning.

[R-Dub]

1/12/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:17:03 AM CURRENT
LT Rain
Temperature (ºF) 38.0
Humidity (%) 99.9
Wind (mph) SSW 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.10
Pressure ("Hg) 30.01
Dew Point: 38.0 ºF
Snow Depth .5"

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Now this forum looks more like the Almanac forum. Good to see a lot of the regulars here.

Woke up this morning hearing that it was in the low to mid 40's in places like Bellingham, Ferndale, Lynden, etc., but here in Sudden Valley east of Bellingham it was 34 with still a lot of snow.

If this system that they talk about that appears to be heading more and more north with each model run does head our way, will it draw more arcitc air down with it?

[TT-SEA]

The pattern is looking MUCH warmer as we move into the weekend.

The southern branch storm approaches but the arctic is long gone and 500 mb heights are up to 5520.

Back to standard Western Washington weather!!

[cloud9]

[andycottle]

I just read the latest short term forecast from 7:24am....and what I get out of it is...that I may not see any snow today. Will I? Does`nt seem like it since my temp is 41 degrees here in Woodinville at 9:21am.
-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Not likely Andy. Not enough cold air around.

We are slipping quickly out of a winter pattern and into almost a spring-like pattern.

[R-Dub]

We just hit 40 degrees for the first time in almost 2 weeks here! Its a heat wave!!! Ground must be quite cold still though, still have .5" snow on the ground, and still chuncks of ice on the roads.

Issued: January 12, 2005 09:50:22 PST (WAZ005)

Today: A mix of clouds and sun with scattered rain showers. Rain showers mixing with or changing to snow showers this afternoon...mainly above 500 feet where an accumulation up to 1 inch is possible. Temperatures slowly falling into the mid 30s. Westerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Northwest wind around 10 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid 30s. North wind around 10 mph.

Thursday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 17. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 17.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.

Saturday night: Clear. Lows in the lower 20s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40.

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s.

Martin luther king jr day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40.

[R-Dub]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 927 AM PST WED JAN 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A STEADY FLOW OF COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. &&

.DISCUSSION...ALLS RATHER QUIET AT THIS POINT THIS MORNING WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DOING ITS THANG OVER SNOHOMISH COUNTY...AND WITH ACARS DATA SHOWING THE FREEZING LEVEL IS STILL AROUND 3600 FEET...WILL ASSUME THAT THE SNOW LEVEL IS STILL ABOVE 1000 FEET AT THIS POINT. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS SLOWLY LOWERING AS THE COLDER AIR IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS INDICATED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUNDING OVER VANCOUVER WHERE THE FREEZING LEVEL IS NEAR 2100 FEET. ALSO THIS LAST HOUR...NEARLY ALL THE OBSERVATION POINTS FROM THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND NORTHWARD...HAVE DROPPED ONE OR TWO DEGREES IN THE LAST HOUR...INDICATING THE COLDER AIR FORCEING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. INTERESTING TO SEE THE DEWPOINT DROP TO 23 THIS HOUR AT TOFINO. SO...NOW WHAT TO DO WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FIRST OFF WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SUPRESSED ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...COAST...NORTHWEST INTERIOR WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UNSTABLE AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF HOLES IN THE CLOUDS IN THE LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE OLYMPICS. TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT THE HIGH FOR THE DAY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND ALREADY BELOW THE EARLIER HIGH NORTHERN HALF. SLOW DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE...INTO THE MID 30S BY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SNOW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS IN THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE SOUND. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR THAT. NOT THE CASE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF I405 HOWEVER WHERE STILL EXPECT THIS REGION TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LEAVE THAT ALONE...JUST UPDATE THE WORDING OF THE STATEMENTS IF NEED BE. WILL BE WORKING ON A ZONE UPDATE AND WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BY 945 AM...DEPENDING ON PHONE LOAD. CERNIGLIA

[R-Dub]

One thing of notice here is the dew point has started to plummet.

1/12/05 LK Goodwin WA
10:26:45 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 39.6
Humidity (%) 81.9
Wind (mph) WNW 0.7
Daily Rain (") 0.12
Pressure ("Hg) 30.08
Dew Point: 34.0 ºF
Snow Depth .5"

[andycottle]

Our temp here in Woodionville has been in the low 40`s since about....... 4am or so. current temp at 10:33am is 43 with DP of 37 and baro 29.85 and steady. We have cloudy skies. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Well guess this statement pretty much says no snow for me Well hmm!
Would like to see more snow. -- Andy


WAZ003>007-009-017-018-122125-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-CENTRAL CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
NORTHERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHWEST INTERIOR-
SEATTLE METROPOLITAN AREA-WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
930 AM PST WED JAN 12 2005

.NOW...THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM NEAR STANWOOD
EASTWARD ACROSS SNOHOMISH COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD TO NEAR EDMONDS. THIS
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND MAY REACH THE KING COUNTY LINE NEAR NOON. SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE CASCADES. COLDER AIR
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY
LOWERING THE SNOW LEVEL INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.

[R-Dub]

What is everyones predictions for the rest of winter around here? I still have a pretty good feeling we will get one more good shot of winter in mid Feb. Some of our biggest snows have come in Feb, typically big accumulations of wet snow, that knocks down branches and kills the power. If the PNA continues to act like it has all fall and winter, it should shoot back to negitive rather quickly. It has only gone positive for short periods in Nov, and Dec. Also NAO probably won't stay negitive for too long. Also AO looks to be headed to negitive also. Some more memorable Febuarys and Marches for me would be....

1989- Feb, and March very cold and snowy.
1993 Feb, Cold with a couple of snow storms.
2001 Feb, Cold with two big snowstorms, 12" both times
2002 March, Cold with two snowstorms. 8" on the first day of spring.

This winter is reminding me of Winter of '92-'93 so far!

[TT-SEA]

Still could be a fun evening for me (we are at 1000 feet above North Bend... the very definition of "Central Cascade Foothills")...


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1200 PM PST WED JAN 12 2005

WAZ003-004-130030-
NORTHERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
1200 PM PST WED JAN 12 2005

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY..

THE SNOW LEVEL...CURRENTLY NEAR 1500 FEET...WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RANGING AS LOW AS 500 FEET OR LESS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD LAST INTO THIS EVENING AND BE
HEAVIEST IN THE VICINITY OF A SOUTH-MOVING PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE.

MANY FOOTHILL LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES.

PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

[TT-SEA]

I am not sure what the rest of the winter will bring.

I think the current El Nino situation would favor warmer and drier. But 1992-93 was a weak El Nino so you never know.

We are definitely heading into a warmer and wetter pattern now. Any chance of cold weather this weekend is gone.

[TT-SEA]

Watching the PSCZ very SLOWLY sinking southward this afternoon towards us here in North Bend.

Interestingly we are still at 42 degrees here. Carnation... just to our northwest and deep in the Snoqualmie Valley (elevation 75 feet) has dropped from 42 degrees down to 36 degrees in the last hour or so as the PSCZ reached that location. Probably a rain/snow mix there. It is snowing hard at the Skykomish Airport at an elevation 998 feet on the King / Snohomish County line.

We are at 1000 feet... I would think we will drop fast once that PSCZ reaches North Bend. Could be pretty fun... but I will wait until it happens to believe it!!

[R-Dub]

yeah I think you still have a great shot! Me I don't think it will be anything more then a snow shower tonight. Its over for me, but not you TT!

My temp is dropping though, down to 37.9 with 30.4 dewpoint.

[andycottle]

Bet my chances of seeing any today are probably pretty slim...ya think? Proably so. Our temp has been in the low 40`s so far today. And 1pm we have cloudy skies with a temp of 43 and DP of 36. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Currently in Mukilteo, temperature is at 39 F with a dewpoint of 33 F. A light mix of rain/snow. So much for the lowland snow...I knew this was either going to hit or miss...in this case, as has been the pattern this entire winter, we missed. TT-SEA...you want us to be accurate and realistic, yet you jump on every little model run that may show a significant pattern change. Looking at the latest models, we are in the deep freeze at LEAST through Saturday...if not longer. In past posts, you said the arctic air was not coming and was done. You are too extreme. Looking at latest long-range models, there's NO arctic air in the entire country in the upcoming two weeks. The northeast MAY be the exception, but the arctic outbreak that was forecasted a few days ago is almost nonexistent in the past few model runs. Looks like we'll establish a zonal flow beginning next week.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

I do tend to believe just the current run of the models too often. I try to look at trends but that does not always work.

I do not see that much cold air left... and no system for this weekend that could bring snow. Thats just my opinion.