The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
vbhoutex wrote:Air Force Met wrote: Forecasting arctic air is very difficult. To see this...all one has to do is go back the last week and look at the flip-flops in the various model runs. Heck...just look at the GFS. It flips daily. Monday it was bearish on the arctic air...then yesterday...bamm...straight south...now...it's back to bearish. The ETA seems to want it to take the plunge....the Euro doesn't know what to do with it...so it moves it east (arctic air doesn't move east)...the UKMET brings it SE...they are all over the place.
So...given the model inconsistancies on this situation...that is why I am sticking with the shot south based on climo (what similiar upper air patterns have brought in the past with similiar airmasses)...because that is really all I can do. The models are worthless because they are so inconsistant from run to run and model to model.
As far as a Texas arctic shot goes...I may well end up eating it on this one...but the first rule of forecasting is 1) When you can't get a good answer from the data you are looking at....then what does climo say? Well...climo says shallow arctic air comes south and that models have a hard time with it.
Of course...given the flip-flops with all the models...one of these model runs has been right (before it became wrong again)...the question is...which one was it
This air is already starting south through Montana. I am not anywhere near a pro, but I've watched Texas weather for 30+ yrs and weather in general for about 45 yrs. I highlighted a few things in AFM's discussion, because imo they say it like it is. This is Artic/Siberian cold and only once in a great while will it not move South. I think it will do so this time and I think it is going to surprise some of our forecasters here in TX. Plenty of Snowpack and more building in front of it, so little if any modification till it gets to the South plains, imo. I think in about 36-48 hours we will see some forecasters scrambling to catch up temps wise and I don't mean rising. P-type, early next week, if and where it happens, as usual, is going to be touch and go, if it even happens, at least here in SE TX.
Are you in denial?
Even AFM isn't sure that the real cold will make it all the way down to Houston and New Orleans.
