Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

[R-Dub]

1/12/05 LK Goodwin WA
2:01:29 PM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 39.6
Humidity (%) 69.5
Wind (mph) WNW 1.0
Daily Rain (") 0.12
Pressure ("Hg) 30.09
Dew Point: 32.1 ºF
Snow Depth .25"

[AnthonyC]

Temperature down to 38 F, but dewpoint down to 28 F. Drier, colder air is now filtering through Puget Sound. Unfortunately, the PSCZ has fizzled and moved south. Sure wasn't that strong of a PSCZ like they've been advertising. 0/2 for this event...no high wind event and no lowland snow event. I don't think Mukilteo saw a higher gust than 15 mph. What's up with the forecasting models this winter?! It's like they can't predict/forecast anything. Even Scott Sistek couldn't believe the tremendous difference between what the models were saying yesterday, and what was actually happening today.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

I can't remember a year where the models have been so wrong when only a day or less out! The no snow last sat when the models said yes, then the snow on Sun when the models said no. Crazy!! Expect the unexpected this winter. Something may just happen on Friday night, Sat morning, keep an eye out for this one. Could be a good over running event. Models keep pushing it northward little by little. Anything can happen!
Temp has dropped two degrees in 15 min! I think the cold air is finally starting to work in!

1/12/05 LK Goodwin WA
2:48:59 PM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 37.2
Humidity (%) 67.2
Wind (mph) WNW 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.12
Pressure ("Hg) 30.10
Dew Point: 29.3 ºF
Snow Depth .25"

[TT-SEA]

The PSCZ is struggling now... not really moving south. Carnation appears to be the center of it with a temperature of 33 degrees and what is probably heavy wet snow falling. Ironically it is almost 50 degrees near downtown Seattle.

We have dropped 5 degrees in the last hour to 37 degrees but just cloudy here. If the PSCZ makes it this far south I am sure our temperature will drop to 32-33 degrees and it will fall as snow.

Just doubting that it will make it this far south now.

[andycottle]

My temp here in Woodinville has droped 3 degrees with in the last hour or so I`m guessing. 41 degrees with DP 37 and cloudy skies as of 3:12pm. Did have a few sprinkles little bit ago that lasted maybe a moment or two. Though think we did have some rain over night because my rain guage picked up .12" of precip. -- Andy

[W13]

Currently sitting at 41 F, with a Dew Point of 33 F. I still do think that we may get some accumulating snow later tonight, I am just unsure of how much.

[R-Dub]

Finally seeing a NE wind here!

1/12/05
3:36:28 PM CURRENT
Cloudy
TEMP (ºF) 36.7
Humidity (%) 71.3
Wind (mph) NE 5.0
Daily Rain (") 0.12
Pressure ("Hg) 30.12
Dew Point: 29.2 ºF
Snow Depth: Just about gone!

[AnthonyC]

Hate to agree with TT-SEA, but a pattern shift is underway. Tremendous cold air bottled up in British Columbia, but a majority of that airmass will remain north and east. Even Eastern Washington isn't expecting brutal cold weather as has been forecasted the past several days. With no surface low or acting mechanism to drive that arctic air south of the border, we can expect only cool conditions Thursday through Saturday...afternoon highs in the 30s to lower 40s, overnight lows in the teens to mid 20s. Saturday looks to be the big transition day. Two events may evolve here; 1) a mountain-wave high wind event may develop in the cascade foothills as a strong surface low tracks a few hundred miles off the Washington coast, and 2) a possible, and I emphasize POSSIBLE, over-running event may occur in the northern portions of Western Washington. With temperatures not quite as cold as originally thought, the over-running event will be marginal at best, and once again, Bellingham has the best shot. After that, it's back to typical Seattle weather...a southwesterly flow with rain and mild temperatures...well, at least back to seasonal norms.

On a side note, I'm a very disappointed with this pattern we've been under the past 10 days. This had tremendous potential to be the coldest/snowiest period since Dec. of 1990. But forecasting models went to crap and did a poor job predicting this entire pattern. Initially, this looked like a solid two weeks of arctic air and chances of snow. But as the days approached, the arctic air was either moderated or shunted east. If current projections are correct, I see no chances of snow for at LEAST the next two weeks...and then you have to realize it's already February and it's harder to get arctic air and snow at sea level...higher sun angles and warmer average temperatures. I'm not trying to sound negative, but I'm very disappointed in this entire pattern. It was very little, to say the most. We had the possibility of picking up FEET up snow...we managed three inches. Oh well. We still have February, the last month of winter for the lowlands.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

I think we are all dissapointed Anthony. Though I was glad to see snowfall for 4 days in a row here at my house, and if we get a snow shower tonight up here, it would make 5. It was nice to have snow on the ground for almost a week also. Still have a little out there in the driveway and grass now. Also I wouldn't totally give up until Sunday. With the models being so bad, just a minor shift could make things quite interesting. Another thing, winter is not done until the first of April here. Remember the first day of spring '02? 8" of snow here! Febuary can be quite good as well!
That being said though, it is unbelievable how there was so much cold air right at the boarder, even over the boarder, but couldn't make it a few, and I MEAN A FEW miles south! I saw pics of Lynden from this weekend, and it is crazy! Snow drifts of 10 feet! Cars were barried up there!

Well we could all move up to Fairbanks AK! Currently -48 degrees with dense freezing fog!

[W13]

Oh great, a possible mountain wave high wind event on friday Night...

[andycottle]

Would have to agree with Tim and Anthony on this subject. By viewing todays 18z GFS and the MRF...it does appear that after about this Saturday...we turn to a milder and wet to very wet pattern with heavy rain and definate showers at times. Also, looks like a nice zonal flow will be setting up, along with 500MB heights 540DM or higher. I see no real good break in the precip until the 27th,when high pressure will try setting up over the PNW.

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Wow, just looked at the latest GFS long-range precipitation outlook and it looks very wet through the rest of January. I guess I'm not use to that since it's been fairly dry the past four weeks. System after system plows through Washington and Oregon...we'll probably be flirting with high wind events as surface lows track into Vancouver Island. There's one particular surface low that catches my attention on Jan. 17...but since models can't predict more than 24 hours in advance, I won't trust 8 days away!! lol.

Anthony

[Brian_from_bellingham]

It will be good to see more normal weather for a few weeks, this could really help the mountains as long as we do not get a pineapple express. This is not an el nino pattern if it plays out, so maybe things will get colder in a few weeks. Any idea what the snow level would be in this pattern?

[AnthonyC]

With a zonal, westerly flow you can expect snow levels to be between 2-3k. Good for mountains.

[R-Dub]

A boring night! Still sitting at 36.8 degrees and cloudy.

I miss the wild windstorms of old!
I miss the arctic blasts of old!
I miss the huge heavy wet snows that would knock out power for days!
I miss Western WA winters of old!!

[TT-SEA]

Not to bring you down more but here is the precipitation outlook for the day on Saturday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/00/images/eta_p12_072m.gif


Not real good chance of snow!!

[AnthonyC]

Still sitting at a mild 37 F, but dewpoint is down to 26 F. Also cloudy. We'll have to wait and see how much of that modified arctic air makes it through Puget Sound. Not looking good as of now.

[AnthonyC]

Why are we looking at forecast models three days away?! Models can't predict 24 hours away, let alone three days away!!!

[W13]

Not to bring you down more but here is the precipitation outlook for the day on Saturday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/00/images/eta_p12_072m.gif


Not real good chance of snow!!

That one is actually for during the day on Sunday.

[W13]

38 F with a Dew Point of 32 F, as of 7:10 PM