Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
Thickness? I am talking about 500mb heights. That is the best level to determine overall weather patterns. Here it is as of 4 p.m. this afternoon... follow the lines. That is 5460 over Seattle... this map is in decameters and I am refering to meters. Either way... 546 or 5460.
Last edited by TT-SEA on Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TT-SEA
Guys... these are facts.
5460 in Seattle is very different than 5460 in Chicago. They have no ocean influence. Regardless... the 500 mb heights in Chicago were higher than Seattle this afternoon. And currently in Chicago it is 52 degrees with light rain!!!!!!
500mb height of 5460 in Seattle is not that low... typically not low enough for snow. Anything higher is definitely not snow. 500mb heights rise from this point on through the weekend.
Don't you guys look at these models?? This is what all the other threads on here are looking at. This is the standard for weather.
And this is the ETA not the GFS.
5460 in Seattle is very different than 5460 in Chicago. They have no ocean influence. Regardless... the 500 mb heights in Chicago were higher than Seattle this afternoon. And currently in Chicago it is 52 degrees with light rain!!!!!!
500mb height of 5460 in Seattle is not that low... typically not low enough for snow. Anything higher is definitely not snow. 500mb heights rise from this point on through the weekend.
Don't you guys look at these models?? This is what all the other threads on here are looking at. This is the standard for weather.
And this is the ETA not the GFS.
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TT-SEA
W13 - What are you talking about???????
The map I showed from this afternoon is from ACTUAL soundings. They heights in Montana are 5280. The have no ocean and arctic air at the surface. Again very different than Seattle with the ocean to constantly modify the air.
The map I showed from this afternoon is from ACTUAL soundings. They heights in Montana are 5280. The have no ocean and arctic air at the surface. Again very different than Seattle with the ocean to constantly modify the air.
Last edited by TT-SEA on Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TT-SEA
You guys need to spend more time on the other threads.
Ask some of the other guys if 500mb heights in Montana were at 5280 this afternoon.
Nobody would argue that the initial values on a model are that wrong. They should be very close to accurate since its not a forecast but readings from upper air soundings.
Ask some of the other guys if 500mb heights in Montana were at 5280 this afternoon.
Nobody would argue that the initial values on a model are that wrong. They should be very close to accurate since its not a forecast but readings from upper air soundings.
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TT-SEA
It is cool... not cold. We are struggling to get back down to freezing.
Guys... we barely meet the snow criteria even in our biggest snowstorms. This is not Minneapolis.
Regardless... there is no moisture in here until early next week and then it gets really warm.
Do you guys love weather or just snow??
Guys... we barely meet the snow criteria even in our biggest snowstorms. This is not Minneapolis.
Regardless... there is no moisture in here until early next week and then it gets really warm.
Do you guys love weather or just snow??
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WOW NWS early tonight! I sure like Albrights discussions, tons more info then KAM or Feltons.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 820 PM PST WED JAN 12 2005
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS DRIES. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS WHERE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE WEEKEND. WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. &&
.DISCUSSION...RIDGING ALONG 140W IS GRADUALLY BEING WEAKENED AND UNDERCUT BY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CENTERED AT 38N/151W. AT THE SAME TIME COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK THROUGH. GUIDANCES SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT. BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN OR MON AND CHANGE OUR PATTERN TO A WARM AND WET ONE FOR NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. IN THE SHORT TERM A WEAK PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE SITS FROM THE KING-SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE EAST TO STEVENS PASS. DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL KEEP THE ZONE WEAK. THE ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE THU. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT I MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SNOW ADVISORY AROUND 10 PM...BUT I`LL MONITOR RADAR AND PASS REPORTS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS PRETTY CLEAR CUT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES AND WE MOVE INTO A COLD REGIME WITH LOWS FROM THE TEENS IN OUTLYING AREAS TO MID 20S URBAN AREAS AND HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. POP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE SAT INTO SUN. WITH COLD AND DRY NELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE SW PCPN COULD BRIEFLY BEGIN AS A LITTLE SNOW SAT NIGHT OR SUN. BUT THE UNDERCUTTING SYSTEM PROMISES TO MOVE US INTO A WARMER WETTER PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF THE NW FOR NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 820 PM PST WED JAN 12 2005
.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS DRIES. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS WHERE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE WEEKEND. WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. &&
.DISCUSSION...RIDGING ALONG 140W IS GRADUALLY BEING WEAKENED AND UNDERCUT BY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CENTERED AT 38N/151W. AT THE SAME TIME COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK THROUGH. GUIDANCES SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT. BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN OR MON AND CHANGE OUR PATTERN TO A WARM AND WET ONE FOR NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. IN THE SHORT TERM A WEAK PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE SITS FROM THE KING-SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE EAST TO STEVENS PASS. DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL KEEP THE ZONE WEAK. THE ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE THU. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT I MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SNOW ADVISORY AROUND 10 PM...BUT I`LL MONITOR RADAR AND PASS REPORTS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS PRETTY CLEAR CUT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES AND WE MOVE INTO A COLD REGIME WITH LOWS FROM THE TEENS IN OUTLYING AREAS TO MID 20S URBAN AREAS AND HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. POP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE SAT INTO SUN. WITH COLD AND DRY NELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE SW PCPN COULD BRIEFLY BEGIN AS A LITTLE SNOW SAT NIGHT OR SUN. BUT THE UNDERCUTTING SYSTEM PROMISES TO MOVE US INTO A WARMER WETTER PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF THE NW FOR NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT
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