When the NWS has "NO CLUE" on the coming Artic air

[CaptinCrunch]

This is what you get when the PRO's have no clue on what the shallow artic air mass will do and how cold it might get.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CST THU JAN 13 2005

.UPDATE...
CANCELING WIND ADVISORY...WILL PUT 15 TO 25 IN THE ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. DROPPED AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT A DEGREE...JUST A TWEAK
REALLY. ALSO DROPPED TOMORROW MORNING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE
TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER 20S IN THE
METROPLEX INSTEAD OF NEAR 30...SO NO BIG CHANGE. CHALLENGE FOR
AFTERNOON IS THE ARCTIC AIR IN THE PLAINS...WILL IT REALLY STAY OUT
OF NORTH TEXAS...OR WILL IT GET HERE BUT BE FAIRLY WELL
MODIFIED...OR WILL WE BE PRETTY COLD HERE IN A FEW DAYS.

[vbhoutex]

And the answer is

Obviously I could be incorrect, but I have seen this too many times before to think that it isn't going to make its' way South and give us the coldest we have had this season, maybe not bone chilling record lows but some pretty substantial cold for the Southland is my prediction. BTW, I said 2 days ago we would see the NWS mets back peddling on temps and they already are. HHHMMMM?????

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This is exactly what Portastorm and I have noted about our Texas NWS offices and their model hugging and their jumping the gun on everything that one run of the models throws out. They lack something as basic as looking at the trends. A long term investor doesn't put money in or take money out based on a blimp or downturn in the market. Same should go with the NWS and the models. NWS Fort Worth had no business yesterday writing off the Arctic system and they had no reason last weekend say it was going to be a direct shot. The best thing to say is the potential is for it to get cold, but we don't know how cold yet but prepare for the worse. Sort of like the way we prepare for Hurricanes down here on the cost. We prepare for the worst case scenerio.

[aggiecutter]

Past history suggest with this type of pattern, a couple of pieces of the arctic air will break-off and cause a pretty good chill(10-15 below normal) for the southern plains. Then, several days later, the motherload comes down and puts the southern plains in the deep freeze( 15-25 below normal) for 2-4 days.

[vbhoutex]

Past history suggest with this type of pattern, a couple of pieces of the arctic air will break-off and cause a pretty good chill(10-15 below normal) for the southern plains. Then, several days later, the motherload comes down and puts the southern plains in the deep freeze( 15-25 below normal) for 2-4 days.

Thank you for adding the details to my general statement. That is what I think those of us that have followed Texas Winter weather for any length of time are expecting.

[jeff]

Past history suggest with this type of pattern, a couple of pieces of the arctic air will break-off and cause a pretty good chill(10-15 below normal) for the southern plains. Then, several days later, the motherload comes down and puts the southern plains in the deep freeze( 15-25 below normal) for 2-4 days.

You nailed it on the head.

[R-Dub]

All I can say is DON'T TRUST THE MODELS THIS YEAR!!!!! They have been pathetically wrong for at least the Pacific Northwest! Even only a day out, they were so way off, nobody up here including NWS can believe it!

[aggiecutter]

One model that has been very consistent the past 5 days for the Friday through Monday time-frame has been the GFS Ensembles. The 12z run, as it has the past 5 days, continues with a strong NW flow from Alaska and North-Western Canada, actually the flow originates in Siberia, down into the Central Plains. That type of upper air pattern is very favorable for Siberian air masses making it down into the southern plains.

12z GFS Ensembles...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 11312.html

[Portastorm]

OK, read this:

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY MODIFIED UPON ARRIVAL. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE AIRMASS ARRIVING MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. NO PRECIP THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

Therein lies why I am so frustrated. How can this airmass be "highly modified?" There's friggin snowcover almost down to southern OK, right? I just don't see how this airmass is going to be modified all that much.

[gboudx]

I trust the opinions and forecasts I read from many of you on this forum, than I do the local TV mets. And in some cases, the local NWS. In fact, whenever I watch the local mets, I find myself not believing them due to the info I read on here.

[Burn1]

Looks like a nice cool down for SE Texas....Just a tad below normal
for next 3 or 4 days with Highs upper 50's to near 60 and lows in upper
30's to around 40.....then a warm up end of next week

[url]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/814day/

http://www.weather.com/activities/other ... d=USTX0617
[/url]

[vbhoutex]

Looks like a nice cool down for SE Texas....Just a tad below normal
for next 3 or 4 days with Highs upper 50's to near 60 and lows in upper
30's to around 40.....then a warm up end of next week

[url]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/814day/

http://www.weather.com/activities/other ... d=USTX0617
[/url]

You hold on to that Burn1 and we'll all compare notes in 10 days. Deal? I will readily admit it if I am wrong.

Those temps, except for today and tomorrow and maybe Sat. don't make a lot of sense with what is to the North of us right now, including a current 33º in the panhandle and the "Arctic" air hasn't even made it there yet.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like a nice cool down for SE Texas....Just a tad below normal
for next 3 or 4 days with Highs upper 50's to near 60 and lows in upper
30's to around 40.....then a warm up end of next week

[url]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/814day/

http://www.weather.com/activities/other ... d=USTX0617
[/url]

Didn't these same products have nearly the whole country( including Texas) above normal yesterday?

See what we mean, Burn. Flip-flop, flip-flop8-)

[aggiecutter]

Burn, there'll probably be a warm-up starting about Wednesday or Thursday of next week into the weekend. That is quite typical after a big Arctic blast into the southern plains, but between now and then temps will be much below normal in the southern plains. Your making a fallacious argument. The maps you posted dont even apply for the time-frame for when the Arctic Air is coming down.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS NORMAN OK. FORECAST

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 19. North wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 33. Northeast wind between 8 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 20. Northeast wind between 9 and 14 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high around 28. North northeast wind between 13 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow and freezing drizzle. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: A slight chance of freezing drizzle. Cloudy, with a high around 28.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 12.

M.L.King Day: Partly cloudy, with a high around 27.

Monday Night: A slight chance of freezing rain. Partly cloudy, with a low near 18. Chance of precipitation is 20%.


and this Artic air will not stop at the Red River!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
223 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BY
MORNING AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SLIDES BY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW TEMPS 20S NORTH AND LOW
30S SOUTH...AND STILL EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 50 EXCEPT FAR NORTH NEAR THE
RID RIVER.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT JUMPING ON THE EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR COMING
TO NORTH TEXAS...BUT WE WILL GET A SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH TO 40S MOST OTHER
PLACES. I DO NOT TRUST THE MODELS MUCH ON THIS SO IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE AIR WILL BE COOLER THAN THIS PACKAGE. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THE OUTPUT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POPS LOOK TO BE NIL
FOR THE NEXT WEEK...NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

Once again the NWS is playing down the cold air, hell they are giving almost a 25 degree difference in temps depending on which side of the RR you stand on?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

More of the same. Throw your models out, NWS. Go with instict and history, please.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
214 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005



LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST 500 MB FLOW SETTING UP OVER CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA IN THIS ZONAL FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO MOVE THIS AIRMASS MORE EAST THAN
SOUTH. BY 16/00Z THE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE MIDWEST WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LIMIT THE COLD AIR INTRUSION INTO THE CWA. THE 500 MB WIND
FLOW SUPPORTS THIS THINKING WITH WINDS FROM NORTHWEST RATHER THAN
DUE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ALSO REFLECT THIS IDEA WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HAVE RAISED THE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO GUIDANCE VALUES...BUT
WE STILL REMAINED A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW SINCE SOME COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

And boy,I hope these guys have alot of their favorite sauce to go with their crow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THE 500 MB FLOW IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS TEXAS BUT BY TUESDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE SUBTLE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD YIELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOSITURE LEVELS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON TUESDAY. WILL LEAVE RAIN CHANCES OUT FOR NOW DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED DRY E-NE SURFACE FLOW. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE COOLER TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT SOUNDING DATA WOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TONIGHT AND WILL ALLOW
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST TO EXPIRE.

[sertorius]

I might bust terribly, but the models are having a terrible time with this cold air and have been all over the place in regards to solutions. temps. in northern Nebraska are now getting close to the single digits-I have been in the 20's all day and have only been above freezing for about 30 hours out of the past 12 days. According to models, it should have been the opposite. Also, if you look at sat., if I am reading this correctly, you can see the leading edge comming down thru the Dakotas-from the looks of the sat. it is comming right down east of the Rockies-I am prob. wrong, but I look for this to surprise some people-there can't be much modification as my area is the first place it will hit w/out snow-all Nebraskas and Northern Kansas has snow!! Watching the temps. will be important.

[CaptinCrunch]

Now this NWS Met gave a preety good forecast based on what "HE" thinks could happen.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
230 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. NEXT ARCTIC EXPRESS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT HAVE BEEN STEADY OR HAVE ONLY
WARMED A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE ARCTIC FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK OVERNIGHT. JUST WHERE IT ENDS
UP BY SUNRISE FRIDAY IS THE BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECASTER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS FRONT
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AT NOON AND THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR (APPROACHING A DEPTH OF 850 MB/S ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BACK
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING). DO NOT THINK THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE FALLING OR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODELS WANT TO BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH ON
FRIDAY AS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES ONTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHICH HELPS DEVELOP A LEE-SIDE CYCLONE WHICH
HOLDS THE FRONT UP. THINK THE COLD AIR WILL BE TOO DENSE FOR THIS.

WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS CLOUDS COUPLED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO
KEEP COLD AIR UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR MOVE ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH
VORT MAXES MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH TO THE EXPECTED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON WHICH LONGER RANGE MODEL IS CORRECT. MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON HOW FAST OR HOW STRONG THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN.

[frankthetank]

snowcover:



the local tv mets(the ones i trust) revised all their numbers down last night...it'll be interesting to see what they say tonight...