AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 AM EST WED JAN 12 2005
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONLY SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CWA CURRENTLY. THUS SOME
CLEARING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AREA OF STRATOCU ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN BORDER. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN TIER. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE FOG. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL WATCH TRENDS AND MAKE
FINAL DECISION JUST BEFORE ZONE RELEASE. OTHERWISE WARM AIR MASS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER CWA AS MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. MAXES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S. AGAIN AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER COULD SHAVE OFF A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMS AND WILL SHATTER RECORDS FOR THIS DATE. CURRENT
RECORDS....RDU 69 IN 1995 AND GSO...66 IN 1963. WAA AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON ADVANCING COLD FRONT TOWARD AREA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MODELS THEMSELVES AND WITH
EACH OTHER. GFS CONSISTENTLY FASTEST BUT HAVE SLOWED SINCE 24 HOURS AGO.
ETA SLOWEST AND INDICATING WAVE DEVELOPING ON FRONT SOUTHERN APLCNS
THURSDAY EVENING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG FRONT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
ALSO ETA INDICATE MOST OF RAIN POST FRONTAL WITH BEST TIME FROM 06Z
TIL ABOUT 14/15Z FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SOAKING...NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS FAIRLY STRONG GULF INFLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
A SLOWER ENDING TIME ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY WILL INDICATE A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD
CWA...BUT DEEP ARCTIC PLUNGE STAYS NORTH AREA.
Another warm day for Raleigh
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Another warm day for Raleigh
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