50-50 Low Development?

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 4:48 pm

Whats all this talk about a 50-50 low development? What does it mean if it does happen? What are the chance of it happening?

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:30 pm

12z Euro shows a good chance of it happening. When a 50/50 low develops, it helps in the development of a -NAO. Also, it helps us Easterners have a better chance at a threat of a significant snowfall.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:35 pm

yoda wrote:12z Euro shows a good chance of it happening. When a 50/50 low develops, it helps in the development of a -NAO. Also, it helps us Easterners have a better chance at a threat of a significant snowfall.

Whats the history of the 12z Euro? Is it usuall right? When do you expect this to happen?

#4 Postby **wxguy25** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:39 pm

yoda wrote:12z Euro shows a good chance of it happening. When a 50/50 low develops, it helps in the development of a -NAO. Also, it helps us Easterners have a better chance at a threat of a significant snowfall.

What happens is you’re getting trough amplification / vortex development over Scandinavia and the 50-50 low development in SE Canada--thereby allowing wavelengths to shorten across the N ATL and the ridge to develop over Greenland sending the NAO negative. Moderately to strongly so according to the 12z ECMWF.

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:42 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
yoda wrote:12z Euro shows a good chance of it happening. When a 50/50 low develops, it helps in the development of a -NAO. Also, it helps us Easterners have a better chance at a threat of a significant snowfall.

What happens is you’re getting trough amplification / vortex development over Scandinavia and the 50-50 low development in SE Canada--thereby allowing wavelengths to shorten across the N ATL and the ridge to develop over Greenland sending the NAO negative. Moderately to strongly so according to the 12z ECMWF.

What is the chance of this happening? When do you expect it to?

#6 Postby **wxguy25** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:43 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
yoda wrote:12z Euro shows a good chance of it happening. When a 50/50 low develops, it helps in the development of a -NAO. Also, it helps us Easterners have a better chance at a threat of a significant snowfall.

What happens is you’re getting trough amplification / vortex development over Scandinavia and the 50-50 low development in SE Canada--thereby allowing wavelengths to shorten across the N ATL and the ridge to develop over Greenland sending the NAO negative. Moderately to strongly so according to the 12z ECMWF.

BTW, yoda. IF *** this verifies, the pattern shrieks of potential. Notice also the low amplitude s/w coming across the Gulf coast states at h+240. Southern SECS Anyone? South of 40N / E of 90W?

yoda · #7 Postby **yoda** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:46 pm

Agree. From what I am seeing on Eastern as well, there is a suggestion for a Major East Coast Storm in the Day 10 frame. BTW, Dave mentions the Nemsis scale... what is that again?

#8 Postby **wxguy25** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:49 pm

yoda wrote:Agree. From what I am seeing on Eastern as well, there is a suggestion for a Major East Coast Storm in the Day 10 frame. BTW, Dave mentions the Nemsis scale... what is that again?

read my post in this thread. That should explain it.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ht=#728822

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:51 pm

yoda wrote:Agree. From what I am seeing on Eastern as well, there is a suggestion for a Major East Coast Storm in the Day 10 frame. BTW, Dave mentions the Nemsis scale... what is that again?

Where would this storm hit? Do you have the website i can look at?

yoda · #10 Postby **yoda** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:52 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
yoda wrote:Agree. From what I am seeing on Eastern as well, there is a suggestion for a Major East Coast Storm in the Day 10 frame. BTW, Dave mentions the Nemsis scale... what is that again?

read my post in this thread. That should explain it.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ht=#728822

Thanks. I have been looking for that.

#11 Postby **wxguy25** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 5:57 pm

yoda wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
yoda wrote:Agree. From what I am seeing on Eastern as well, there is a suggestion for a Major East Coast Storm in the Day 10 frame. BTW, Dave mentions the Nemsis scale... what is that again?

read my post in this thread. That should explain it.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ht=#728822

Thanks. I have been looking for that.

My advice is also to buy Kocin's new book thru the AMS. its a pretty hefty price for a non-member but well worth it IMO.

http://ametsoc.org/pubs/books/bookdesc.html#MM54

Northeast Snowstorms (Volume I: Overview, Volume II: The Cases)
By Paul J. Kocin and Louis W. Uccellini

Northeast Snowstorms offers the most comprehensive treatment on winter storms ever compiled: more than 50 years of professional experience in the form of a two-volume compendium of insights, examples, photographs, over 200 color figures, and a DVD of added material. 2004. Meteorological Monograph Series, Volume 32, number 54; 818 pages, hardbound; ISBN 1-878220-64-0; AMS Code MM54.
List price - $95.00; AMS member price $75.00; AMS Student Member price $55.00

yoda · #12 Postby **yoda** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 6:07 pm

Wow. That is alot... but I think I will go ahead and get it. Thanks for the link Wxguy.

#13 Postby **wxguy25** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 6:10 pm

yoda wrote:Wow. That is alot... but I think I will go ahead and get it. Thanks for the link Wxguy.

Sure.

BTW, here is the NEW euro from the PSC site:

Chris the Weather Man · #14 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 6:19 pm

Ah, Now That looks sweet........ The Fun Begins...... Next Weekend... and after..

yoda · #15 Postby **yoda** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 6:21 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:Ah, Now That looks sweet........ The Fun Begins...... Next Weekend... and after..

I certainly hope so. I have been waiting a while here in the MA... LOL.

Chris the Weather Man · #16 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 8:16 pm

It would be nice to get a SECS at this point. The MECS/HECS can wait........ Although, I would love to get a HECS.

Anonymous · #17 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:30 pm

What is a SECS and a MECS? Serious east coast storm, Major east coast storm? When is this chance supposed to happen and when is this "secs or mecs supposed to happen?

yoda · #18 Postby **yoda** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:36 pm

Jrodd321 wrote:What is a SECS and a MECS? Serious east coast storm, Major east coast storm? When is this chance supposed to happen and when is this "secs or mecs supposed to happen?

You got the MECS right, but SECS stands for Significant East Coast Storm. Probably not until the 20-23...

Anonymous · #19 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:39 pm

yoda wrote:
Jrodd321 wrote:What is a SECS and a MECS? Serious east coast storm, Major east coast storm? When is this chance supposed to happen and when is this "secs or mecs supposed to happen?

You got the MECS right, but SECS stands for Significant East Coast Storm. Probably not until the 20-23...

What are the chance of this happening? What are the snowfall amount for a SECS and what are the snowfall amounts for MECS?

yoda · #20 Postby **yoda** » Thu Jan 13, 2005 9:41 pm

Jrodd321 wrote:
yoda wrote:
Jrodd321 wrote:What is a SECS and a MECS? Serious east coast storm, Major east coast storm? When is this chance supposed to happen and when is this "secs or mecs supposed to happen?

You got the MECS right, but SECS stands for Significant East Coast Storm. Probably not until the 20-23...
What are the chance of this happening? What are the snowfall amount for a SECS and what are the snowfall amounts for MECS?

I am not sure about snow amounts, but if I had to guess:

SECS -- 6"+
MECS -- 12"+

The chances of it happening? I really don't know. I will have to follow the models closely as time goes by.

50-50 Low Development?

50-50 Low Development?

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