Tropical Storm Kulap

[James]

A new invest has popped up in the West Pacific, and doesn't look too badly organised. According to the JTWC, it's chances of development within the next 24 hours are poor, but it may need watching. From the JTWC:

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 2.4N6 156.1E3,
APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS CHARTS
DEPICT INCREASING LOW LEVEL VORTICITY WITH THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

This system may not develop, but January has played host to some significant storms over the years:

1955 - Typhoon Violet, 70 kts
1957 - Tropical Storm #1, 40 kts
1957 - Super Typhoon Rose, 135 kts
1958 - Super Typhoon Ophelia, 140 kts
1961 - Tropical Storm Rita, 40 kts
1965 - Typhoon Patsy, 65 kts
1965 - Tropical Storm Ruth, 60 kts
1969 - Typhoon Phyllis, 85 kts
1971 - Tropical Storm Sarah, 50 kts
1972 - Typhoon Kit, 120 kts
1974 - Tropical Storm Wanda, 55 kts
1975 - Typhoon Lola, 70 kts
1976 - Typhoon Kathy, 80 kts
1978 - Tropical Storm Nadine, 60 kts
1979 - Typhoon Alice, 110 kts
1985 - Tropical Storm Fabian, 40 kts
1987 - Typhoon Orchid, 95 kts
1988 - Typhoon Roy, 115 kts
1989 - Tropical Storm Winona - 55 kts
1990 - Typhoon Koryn, 75 kts
1992 - Typhoon Axel, 70 kts
2002 - Tropical Storm Tapah, 40kts
2003 - Tropical Storm Yanyan, 50 kts

[Aslkahuna]

The actual period of minimum TC activity in WPAC runs from February through April as those are the months with the lowest averages of formation.

Steve

[James]

Hmm, the JTWC has upgraded the development potential to fair.

[James]

And it's now been upgraded to the first tropical system of 2005 in the W. Pacific.

[depotoo]

wow!

[HURAKAN]

Image displays TD 01W, Invests 94S, 96S, 90B.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the now Tropical Storm Kulap will move north east of the Mariana Islands.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM 01W NOW NAMED KULAP

AT 11 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SATAWAL AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR WOLEAI AND PULUWAT HAVE BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP AND ULUL.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

AT 10 PM GUAM LST...1200Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM KULAP WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 147.4 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF SATAWAL
155 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULUL
175 MILES NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT
195 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
265 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
355 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
430 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
435 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL STORM KULAP IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION...9.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 147.4 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM KULAP LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
2 AM GUAM LST SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 AM.


Although there are watches and warnings for the Marianas it looks like they wont get the full effects.

[HURAKAN]

[James]

Interesting to note that the "Storm Names" section on the NHC website says that the name is 'Kularb'.

[P.K.]

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (KULAP) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 12.4N7 146.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N7 146.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 14.4N9 147.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 16.4N1 149.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 18.5N4 151.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 20.3N5 155.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 22.3N7 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.9N2 146.9E0.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3, 162100Z0, 170300Z1 AND 170900Z7.//

[P.K.]

[HURAKAN]

Kulap has continued to intensified and now is a step away from becoming the first typhoon of the 2005 season; this could happen in the next 12 hours. Unfortunately for the cyclone the time is running out the and window of opportunity could be closing really fast.

[Hurricanehink]

Looks like it is trying to develop an eye.

[HURAKAN]

Although Dvorak estimates 4.5, JTWC still says it has winds of 70 mph.

[P.K.]