Thoughts for next 10 days for Lawrence and the Kansas City area:
Short Term: The arctic high is currently in Nebraska-our current temp. is around 9-our high temp. will prob. Only rise to about 11 or 12 today as we are really under the influence of this arctic high today. There is a weak low pressure area over the 4 corners and some lt. snow popping up over south west Kansas. This may give us some flurries tonight but over all precip looks very marginal for quite some time. After today, we will begin to slowly moderate with temps. rising above freezing by Wednesday. It will take that long and possibly an extra day to scour out this cold air. The gfs and euro have us in the 40’s by Wednesday, but I would not be surprised if it is Thursday that we really warm up.
Long Term: Over the next 10 days, my area is going to be in the far western side of the trough developing over the east. The PNA is forecast to go to a positive 2 or above with the NAO going to a negative 1. You can really see this on this morning satellite pictures: a storm out in the Pacific is being pushed was up into British Columbia-a sign of things to come for this area. The ridge is forecast to move east and settle in over the 4 corners area later this week and remain there for about 7-8 days-again, you can see this movement on the satellite images. This will also flood central Canada with pacific air-Edmonton and Calgary are both forecasted to be in the 30’s and 40’s by weeks end-however, areas to their North like Yellowknife, will stay below normal so the cold air is not disappearing in Western Canada. On a historical note, when the PNA is above plus 2 and the NAO is only slightly negative, our winter weather chances are slim for this area-they can happen, but are rare. Thus, for the next week to 10 days, I would expect this area to be a bit above average temp. wise with a few glancing blows of cold air coming down the lee side of the trough. (The clippers they are discussing for the east coast-the euro, gfs, and gem show this scenario next weekend) we could see some snow but most likely more ice but the predominant precipitation will probably be liquid. However, our precipitation chances will be small as we are on the far side of the trough. Areas east of me-Eastern Missouri and eastern Iowa look to have some good chances in the next week to 10 days. Looking farther ahead, the PNA is forecast to begin trending back towards negative 1 and the NAO staying around negative 1-0. These are both good numbers for this area historically to have winter weather and in fact the long range gfs ( I know, I know-but I’m looking at trends) has for the past 3-4 runs push the trough a bit back further west by the end of the month. This would make sense with the PNA and NAO forecast numbers.
Thus, overall, I expect a moderating trend over the next 10 days with little precipitation. We will have some times 1-2 days with colder temps. and if all goes right, we could even have a snow or lt. freezing rain event. It does not look like we will have a week of temps. in the 50’s and 60’s as we will still be influenced by the trough in the east. Two things that could change this: one, a push of cold air that settles in that overwhelms the pattern or, the ridge in the west sets up a little farther west and we are more under the trough. I don’t think the next 10 days will be nearly as boring as December was for this area and the end of the month into early Feb. looks to be much better. We shall see. I hope this makes sense and thanks for reading.
Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days
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amawea:
I am no expert-as I've said many times, I'm just a Latin teacher!!! Donsutherland and wzguy25 could offer much more insight. But, I'll venture a guess-I would imagine NE Arkansas would be fairly mild overall-prob. average to just above and like KC, not a whole lot of precipitation unless we get the sub tropical jet to kick something up (interestingly enough, a couple models are showing that for next weekend!!) You would prob. have mostly rain and thunderstorms untill the front moves thru then a couple days of cool weather followed by a warming trend. For our over all area, the first of Feb. looks alot better as the PNA goes to 0 or neg. 1 and the NAO stays 0 or slightly negative-both are very good set ups for our area. 3 flys in the ointment:there is still alot of cold air in the North West Treritories of Canada and they are not going to warm up very much over the next 10 days-some cold air could break off and come underneath the ridge and change everything or, the ridge could set up a bit further west putting us more in the trough. 3 The sub tropical jet could kick out a storm and bring some cold air with it. This what the gem model is showing for next weekend and the euro is howing colder 500 temps. for Sunday/Monday. basically, not as boring as december, but fairly quite pattern unless one of the 3 things happen mentioned above. Again, as of now, the first of Feb. looks to be much more active!!!
I am no expert-as I've said many times, I'm just a Latin teacher!!! Donsutherland and wzguy25 could offer much more insight. But, I'll venture a guess-I would imagine NE Arkansas would be fairly mild overall-prob. average to just above and like KC, not a whole lot of precipitation unless we get the sub tropical jet to kick something up (interestingly enough, a couple models are showing that for next weekend!!) You would prob. have mostly rain and thunderstorms untill the front moves thru then a couple days of cool weather followed by a warming trend. For our over all area, the first of Feb. looks alot better as the PNA goes to 0 or neg. 1 and the NAO stays 0 or slightly negative-both are very good set ups for our area. 3 flys in the ointment:there is still alot of cold air in the North West Treritories of Canada and they are not going to warm up very much over the next 10 days-some cold air could break off and come underneath the ridge and change everything or, the ridge could set up a bit further west putting us more in the trough. 3 The sub tropical jet could kick out a storm and bring some cold air with it. This what the gem model is showing for next weekend and the euro is howing colder 500 temps. for Sunday/Monday. basically, not as boring as december, but fairly quite pattern unless one of the 3 things happen mentioned above. Again, as of now, the first of Feb. looks to be much more active!!!
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One more quick note. Sateliete images are quite interesting this morning.
1. You can see the storm developing over Texas that will affect areas well east of me and radar show lt. snow popping up in Southern Kansas.
2. The ridge off of California progged to move east this week is very evident as one storm is being forced up and into British Columbia
3. A more interesting feature is the storm comming in on the above mentioned storm'e heels. It appears that it might crash thru the ridge (yes I am grasping at straws here
If this storm was to crash and come thru the southern US, it could totally throw out what the gfs is currently depicting for next week. The gem and euro are both hinting at a storm in the southern branch for next weekend. This image will be interesting to watch.
1. You can see the storm developing over Texas that will affect areas well east of me and radar show lt. snow popping up in Southern Kansas.
2. The ridge off of California progged to move east this week is very evident as one storm is being forced up and into British Columbia
3. A more interesting feature is the storm comming in on the above mentioned storm'e heels. It appears that it might crash thru the ridge (yes I am grasping at straws here
If this storm was to crash and come thru the southern US, it could totally throw out what the gfs is currently depicting for next week. The gem and euro are both hinting at a storm in the southern branch for next weekend. This image will be interesting to watch.
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frankthetank
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frankthetank
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frankthetank:
In my opinion, and again, I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination-Purduewx, donsutherland1 and wxguy25 are much more able to answer the question, I would think you guys would be under the influence of the trough and not warm up as much as me over all. I would think that there would be a few days of strong sw winds esp. in advance of the clipper systems but then you would get much colder than I after they push thru. It doesn't look like there will be anymore arctic out breaks for the next 10 days at least like this one we are in now (I have not been above 14 degrees in 72 hours-not as cold as you, but that is still 25 degress below normal!!) but the gem is hinting at a brief chill next Monday. I will see some chinook winds-if you want chinook winds and heat, come down here in about July-I got plenty!!!
Just by looking at the models, I don't see the next 10 days as totally winter free for people East of say Dodge City Kansas and North of Oklahoma city. We will be warmer than the past 2 weeks, but there will be cold spells. You will be affected more by the cold shots as you are further North and East but then after a couple of days you should warm up. Just my thoughts-to be honest, I'm watching the satelite pictures of a storm heading towards California and seeing if it crashes thru the ridge or goes under it-this could really play havoc with the models if it comes thru and heads east in the southern stream as none of them have that scenario as of now. Hope that makes sense. I do think the end of the month could be interesting for here and for you as the pna goes slightly negative and the nao stays neutral or slightly negative.
In my opinion, and again, I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination-Purduewx, donsutherland1 and wxguy25 are much more able to answer the question, I would think you guys would be under the influence of the trough and not warm up as much as me over all. I would think that there would be a few days of strong sw winds esp. in advance of the clipper systems but then you would get much colder than I after they push thru. It doesn't look like there will be anymore arctic out breaks for the next 10 days at least like this one we are in now (I have not been above 14 degrees in 72 hours-not as cold as you, but that is still 25 degress below normal!!) but the gem is hinting at a brief chill next Monday. I will see some chinook winds-if you want chinook winds and heat, come down here in about July-I got plenty!!!
Just by looking at the models, I don't see the next 10 days as totally winter free for people East of say Dodge City Kansas and North of Oklahoma city. We will be warmer than the past 2 weeks, but there will be cold spells. You will be affected more by the cold shots as you are further North and East but then after a couple of days you should warm up. Just my thoughts-to be honest, I'm watching the satelite pictures of a storm heading towards California and seeing if it crashes thru the ridge or goes under it-this could really play havoc with the models if it comes thru and heads east in the southern stream as none of them have that scenario as of now. Hope that makes sense. I do think the end of the month could be interesting for here and for you as the pna goes slightly negative and the nao stays neutral or slightly negative.
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One other quick note: The 12z ETA has me getting about an inch of snow tomorrow-I'll take it!! Not much, but that would be our biggest snow since November and will be our best cahnce untill possibly next weekend or the end of the month!! The gfs shows nothing, but the eta is quite good at 24 hours out-I think this storm forming Texas is picking up a bit of steam esp. sonsidering the temp. gradients between North of Dallas and south of Dallas.
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Good afternoon everyone. Just a couple of quick notes. Temp. currently is around 18 degrees with full sunshine. Just got back from skating/walking on the ice a local lake. Second year in a row that both Clinton resovour and Lone Star Lake have frozen solid. We have a place on Lone Star and my son and I were out there all morning messing around. Awesome stuff!!
1. Clouds are beginning to enter North West Kansas currently and by Satelite imagerey I'm not so sure that this low comming out of Montana may not come in a bit south and west of me-the models are showing nothing and we prob. won't have anything but clouds, but by the imagerey, it looks a little interesting.
2. Based on todays 0z and 12z runs of the euro, gem, and gfs, and mrf, is does not appear that the next two week will be totally boring around here. Next weekend looks real interesting as all 4 bring a low to the south of us-the euro keeps lowering the 500 hts each run for Saturday-Monday so this period is def. worth watching. Not believeing the radical 12z gfs which puts me in a pretty good event next weekend but do belive the trend that next weekend will below normal temp. wise. Also, does not appear we will be blow torched (maybe a day or two) in the next two weeks either. Looks as though we will be normal. Based on today's runs, it does not appear we are heading tpwards a december pattern for here.
3. The gfs and mrf still bringing in another shot of arctic air by the end of the month and the beginning of February. I'm sure they will both flip flop quite a bit on this in the comming weeks (as they will for next weekend) but this does coincide with the the pna going around a negative 1 and the nao staying neutral or slightly negaitve. Very good numbers for this area-thus, I will believe the trend and say that the end of this month and the beginning of next month could be quite wintery here. Just a few random thoughts-we shall see. I'll be keeping an eye on the low comming down from Montana.
1. Clouds are beginning to enter North West Kansas currently and by Satelite imagerey I'm not so sure that this low comming out of Montana may not come in a bit south and west of me-the models are showing nothing and we prob. won't have anything but clouds, but by the imagerey, it looks a little interesting.
2. Based on todays 0z and 12z runs of the euro, gem, and gfs, and mrf, is does not appear that the next two week will be totally boring around here. Next weekend looks real interesting as all 4 bring a low to the south of us-the euro keeps lowering the 500 hts each run for Saturday-Monday so this period is def. worth watching. Not believeing the radical 12z gfs which puts me in a pretty good event next weekend but do belive the trend that next weekend will below normal temp. wise. Also, does not appear we will be blow torched (maybe a day or two) in the next two weeks either. Looks as though we will be normal. Based on today's runs, it does not appear we are heading tpwards a december pattern for here.
3. The gfs and mrf still bringing in another shot of arctic air by the end of the month and the beginning of February. I'm sure they will both flip flop quite a bit on this in the comming weeks (as they will for next weekend) but this does coincide with the the pna going around a negative 1 and the nao staying neutral or slightly negaitve. Very good numbers for this area-thus, I will believe the trend and say that the end of this month and the beginning of next month could be quite wintery here. Just a few random thoughts-we shall see. I'll be keeping an eye on the low comming down from Montana.
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frankthetank
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A couple of interesting things on the 12z euro for today.
1. Next weekend: Brings the low across Southern Kansas into Tenn on Friday Saturday-this will mostly be rain for us untill Saturday when we may have some back lash snows. However, this storm brings some pretty good colder air in behind it. By Saturday, our 850 temps. are running in the -6 category and that runs into Sunday. If there is enough moisture left over, we could see some snow here on Saturday. This needs to be watched.
2. If I am reading the euro correctly, this storm seems to help push the ridge back to the west. This Thursday, out 500 hts. are quite up there and you can see the ridge nudging thru. North Dakota into Southern Canada. However, by the following Wednesday, our 500m hts. are lowered and the ridge is pushed farther back to the west and it is flattened quite a bit. This is an interesting solution and will be interersting to follow for the upcomming week or so. Could the euro be showing the down trend of the pna???
Again, I could be totally off base here, but based on the 12z euro (and even the gfs) I think our two warmest days out of the next 10 will be Thursday/Friday of this week and they will prob. be in the 40's possibly 50 on Friday. But as of now, it does not look that we will have a massive ridge that will have our temps. in the 50's for the next 10-14 days as it seemed 5 days ago. The 12z euro is a very interesting tun to say the least-will it continue, only time will tell.
1. Next weekend: Brings the low across Southern Kansas into Tenn on Friday Saturday-this will mostly be rain for us untill Saturday when we may have some back lash snows. However, this storm brings some pretty good colder air in behind it. By Saturday, our 850 temps. are running in the -6 category and that runs into Sunday. If there is enough moisture left over, we could see some snow here on Saturday. This needs to be watched.
2. If I am reading the euro correctly, this storm seems to help push the ridge back to the west. This Thursday, out 500 hts. are quite up there and you can see the ridge nudging thru. North Dakota into Southern Canada. However, by the following Wednesday, our 500m hts. are lowered and the ridge is pushed farther back to the west and it is flattened quite a bit. This is an interesting solution and will be interersting to follow for the upcomming week or so. Could the euro be showing the down trend of the pna???
Again, I could be totally off base here, but based on the 12z euro (and even the gfs) I think our two warmest days out of the next 10 will be Thursday/Friday of this week and they will prob. be in the 40's possibly 50 on Friday. But as of now, it does not look that we will have a massive ridge that will have our temps. in the 50's for the next 10-14 days as it seemed 5 days ago. The 12z euro is a very interesting tun to say the least-will it continue, only time will tell.
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Frankthetank:
I hope I'm not boring everyone with all this-I can get carried away at times-just ask my students!!! Yea, we will really warm up on Thursday/Friday this week, but then we really look to cool back off by Saturday. Considering the ridge over the Rockies later this week, this run may be totally bunk or my analysis may be totally bunk, but I think it needs to be watched for sure. The good old gfs has me in some snow and falling temps. on Saturday!! What else is new-if the gfs was ever right, I could be selling snow I'd have so much!!!!!
I hope I'm not boring everyone with all this-I can get carried away at times-just ask my students!!!
Yea, we will really warm up on Thursday/Friday this week, but then we really look to cool back off by Saturday. Considering the ridge over the Rockies later this week, this run may be totally bunk or my analysis may be totally bunk, but I think it needs to be watched for sure. The good old gfs has me in some snow and falling temps. on Saturday!! What else is new-if the gfs was ever right, I could be selling snow I'd have so much!!!!!
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frankthetank
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frankthetank
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Frankthetank:
I'm with ya there-I'm always in one of those two as well-esp. the south west flow!!! Sometimes in spring we will get a pure southerly flow, but our pred. wind is that wonderfull dry gusty south west wind!!!! That Canada map is great-For someone who is snow starved but sick of 4 degrees and high stratus clouds, that is not a bad map. Enough cold air to be drawn from for some snow but not brutal to where we will be below 0. The thing is though, the Territories and Nuvi. are staying normal to below normal and will prob. reload towards the end of the month. I'm kind of a freak though-I love the cold weather because I don't always get it-You are in a different boat and see brutally cold quite often(I guess that is an understatement!!)-I can always bank on 5-10 days above 100 degrees in July and August and about 20 days of 90 or above-but to have all the major resivoirs freeze up is rare and that has happened the past 2 years. I digress and ramble again-we will have some sw flow in the next 10 days-esp. Thursday and Friday-but if the 12z euro today in correct, we won't have very many days of it and then we get into another very active pattern around the end of the month.
I'm with ya there-I'm always in one of those two as well-esp. the south west flow!!! Sometimes in spring we will get a pure southerly flow, but our pred. wind is that wonderfull dry gusty south west wind!!!! That Canada map is great-For someone who is snow starved but sick of 4 degrees and high stratus clouds, that is not a bad map. Enough cold air to be drawn from for some snow but not brutal to where we will be below 0. The thing is though, the Territories and Nuvi. are staying normal to below normal and will prob. reload towards the end of the month. I'm kind of a freak though-I love the cold weather because I don't always get it-You are in a different boat and see brutally cold quite often(I guess that is an understatement!!)-I can always bank on 5-10 days above 100 degrees in July and August and about 20 days of 90 or above-but to have all the major resivoirs freeze up is rare and that has happened the past 2 years. I digress and ramble again-we will have some sw flow in the next 10 days-esp. Thursday and Friday-but if the 12z euro today in correct, we won't have very many days of it and then we get into another very active pattern around the end of the month.
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Good morning everyone and happy MLK day-may we remember him and achieve his goals some time in the near future!!! Again, I am bored with making Latinn PowerPoints so I figured I’d bore you poor souls with my weather thoughts based on this morning’s information. I can hear the groans!!! (By the way, I hope I’m not breaking any board rules by continuing to post in this thread. I’ve just become obsessed with winter weather especially since we are actually having (well sort of) winter here this year)
1. This week: Battle of the temps. How fast will we warm up is the main question. It looks to be in the 30’s for Tuesday and Wednesday with possible 40’s for Thursday and then the big warm up on Friday and Saturday morning. I would think we could hit 50 easy on Friday and prob. Not even go below freezing on Friday night; however, that looks to be our warmest period for the next 10 days as by Sunday we could be back in the teens to 20’s. One fly in the ointment: the gfs and the eta look to bring in a back door cold front on Thursday, so we may only be in 30’s for Thursday as well.
2. This weekend: Based on the euro, we are going to be on the back side of this storm for the whole duration; the euro brings the low down thru central Missouri (have fun Saint Louis) by Saturday morning-thus, we will have some rain Saturday morning with the possibility of some lt. snow Saturday night as it moves east. Saturday looks to have the high temp. in the morning with falling temps. all afternoon. One interesting note-the gem brings this storm down further west and positions it over southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma before moving it east. Based on the influence of the ridge, you have to buy the euro and besides, it’s the euro!! However, it will still be worth watching-if the storm comes down farther west it could change things in a big way. That aside, this storm looks to bring some more cold air to this area for the Sunday/Monday period for sure. Temps. Sunday in the teens to lower 20’s (euro has the -10 850 isotherm over us) then lower 30’s for Monday.
3. Beyond Monday: based on this mornings run, we do not look to have a massive warm up thru next Thursday. I think next week’s temps. will be just below normal to normal: upper 30’s to low 40’s at the max. The euro on the 0z run does not raise our 500 heights all that much when compared to two days ago. Also, if I am reading it correctly, the euro also looks to move the ridge back a bit further west by next Thursday and seems to be lowering the heights in the Pacific. The PNA is still forecast to trend downwards beginning day 7 and by day 14 looks to be around a negative 1-this spells a good set up for this area and the mrf and gfs are still hinting at this on the 0z runs-combine this with the 0z euro run for next Thursday, and it looks like we could have more winter weather in the central plains by months end. Of course, to be honest, winter really isn’t going away-at least the way it seemed 5 days ago as we do not look to have a massive 2 week warm up. Well, have a great day!!!
1. This week: Battle of the temps. How fast will we warm up is the main question. It looks to be in the 30’s for Tuesday and Wednesday with possible 40’s for Thursday and then the big warm up on Friday and Saturday morning. I would think we could hit 50 easy on Friday and prob. Not even go below freezing on Friday night; however, that looks to be our warmest period for the next 10 days as by Sunday we could be back in the teens to 20’s. One fly in the ointment: the gfs and the eta look to bring in a back door cold front on Thursday, so we may only be in 30’s for Thursday as well.
2. This weekend: Based on the euro, we are going to be on the back side of this storm for the whole duration; the euro brings the low down thru central Missouri (have fun Saint Louis) by Saturday morning-thus, we will have some rain Saturday morning with the possibility of some lt. snow Saturday night as it moves east. Saturday looks to have the high temp. in the morning with falling temps. all afternoon. One interesting note-the gem brings this storm down further west and positions it over southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma before moving it east. Based on the influence of the ridge, you have to buy the euro and besides, it’s the euro!! However, it will still be worth watching-if the storm comes down farther west it could change things in a big way. That aside, this storm looks to bring some more cold air to this area for the Sunday/Monday period for sure. Temps. Sunday in the teens to lower 20’s (euro has the -10 850 isotherm over us) then lower 30’s for Monday.
3. Beyond Monday: based on this mornings run, we do not look to have a massive warm up thru next Thursday. I think next week’s temps. will be just below normal to normal: upper 30’s to low 40’s at the max. The euro on the 0z run does not raise our 500 heights all that much when compared to two days ago. Also, if I am reading it correctly, the euro also looks to move the ridge back a bit further west by next Thursday and seems to be lowering the heights in the Pacific. The PNA is still forecast to trend downwards beginning day 7 and by day 14 looks to be around a negative 1-this spells a good set up for this area and the mrf and gfs are still hinting at this on the 0z runs-combine this with the 0z euro run for next Thursday, and it looks like we could have more winter weather in the central plains by months end. Of course, to be honest, winter really isn’t going away-at least the way it seemed 5 days ago as we do not look to have a massive 2 week warm up. Well, have a great day!!!
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I prob. should have posted this in the 12z Euro thread, but since it is about my area I figured I would throw it in here!! The 12z euro is the best looking solution I have seen for this area all winter as far as snow goes. It has us in a good fetch of moisture with the low tracking thru southern Missori, and has our 850 temps. at -6 for the day. The cool down begins on Friday evening I would guess as it has our 850 temps. quite a bit cooler than the 0 run. If I am reading this correctly, I could see a pretty good snow from this system. I really don't think it will keep this solution on the 0z run-the ridge is just too close to me and from what I have read, the southern energey won't be that strong. However, this is not the gfs and if the euro is showing this, it def. needs to be watched. For sure, this is worth discussing for at least the next 12 hours untill the 0z Tuessday comes out and snaps me back to reality!!! I'm not sure how to attatch an image or I would attatch the precip. and 850 temps. Sorry about that!!!
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frankthetank
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PurdueWx80
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frankthetank wrote:Euro above shows a nice shot of cold air coming down over the top of me Sunday...should be interesting...Local AFD has a lot of chances of snow due to clippers moving through...might be using the shovel in the next seven days:)
Should be a chance of snow about every other day...Tuesday night, Thursday and again early in the weekend. The 3rd of these looks the most impressive, with a swath of 6-10 likely somewhere in the Midwest. I have to readjust to forecasting for Wisconsin from Indiana, not that it is all that different. I just have to get used to looking at Southern WI as opposed to central IN.
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frankthetank
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