Big snows for St. Louis, MO area and rest of corn belt?!??

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

According to the 00UTC GFS, it says to heck with the warm up and hello more cold and a One foot snowfall by Friday of Next week with 2 other storms after then. It also beefs up Saturday night's and Sunday's Snow chance quite a bit bring 1-3 inches when all set and done. This is tomorrow of course. GFS says now that we may get one day where it gets to 40F for one day then back into the freezing mark again. So the Warm up looks to be less severe then last few runs, and snow chances appear to be on the rise. Now obvouisly I'm a little bit curious whether or not that one foot snowfall accually occurs or not. The GFS has been hinting at it on and off at times, but never this strong as it has now. It's still out of my accuracy forecast range, but it could be a possiblity, but not one I'm ready to bet on yet. I am going to Rise St. Louis, Mo metro's area chance for snow tomorrow night to 40 percent with upto an inch possible with a few spots picking up 2 inches for now. Will have to update on this tomorrow afternoon. I will be busy tomorrow morning, so I won't be on till late. I'll have an update then based on the 06 and 12UTC GFS and ETA models, which surprising is gaining accuracy in them all of a sudden even though it might take them a while to decide, but they must of done something to the models, because the last 2 weeks they have been fairly accurate. Anyway I'll talk more about the possible 12 inch snowfall in St. Louis, MO area and colder temperatures tomorrow. Till then Good Night!!

[Terry]

Well, if St. Louis gets a foot of snow, Mizzou will be happy and will have been proven wrong. (I think he'd rather be happy than right).

[sertorius]

Gothpunk-IL-wx:

This really makes sense based on the pattern set up for the next 10 days. St. Louis is really under the influence of the trough developing in the east and will get the benefit of those clipper systems. Areas west like Kansas City, will see pnly glancing blows of the cold air and very little precip. Our time is comming around again by late month and early Feb. But again, this is another example of why Eastern Missouri averages more snow/rain than Kansas City to Topeka area does. Enjoy the chances-I hope they pan out for you-it does look good.

[PurdueWx80]

There will be another nice little "surprise" storm tonight in the Midwest, starting near or just east of St. Louis running towards the Mid-Atlantic. In western areas, you may see up to 1-2" but in the Appalachians and along the eastern seaboard amounts will probably be over 6" as the system strengthens and finds some moisture to work with. QPF amounts on models are very low back in the Midwest, but snow:liquid ratios will be near 30:1 at temps in the teens.

[sertorius]

You can see it beginning to develop in southeast and even western Kansas-small bands of lite snow are beginning to show up on the radar-I may see a few flurries from this, but it mostly will go well south of me. The story of this winter-if we get precip. it is too warm up above for snow and we get fr. rain and sleet and when it is finally cold enough, we can't get the moisture or a low strong enough to push moisture up over the cold-all the lows have strenthened will east of us when we have the cold air. Oh well, I'm looking forward to Feb. as it looks to bring some good chances back to this area (also next weekend may be interesting as well if the gem is correct!!)

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

There will be another nice little "surprise" storm tonight in the Midwest, starting near or just east of St. Louis running towards the Mid-Atlantic. In western areas, you may see up to 1-2" but in the Appalachians and along the eastern seaboard amounts will probably be over 6" as the system strengthens and finds some moisture to work with. QPF amounts on models are very low back in the Midwest, but snow:liquid ratios will be near 30:1 at temps in the teens.

I agree in fact I've been telling my mom, I've been very accurate in forecasting these storms once they get there act together. I've been looking and predicting the same as you. In terms of St. Louis, MO area. Now as for the mid-atlantic I don't have a clue, but I hope you get your 6 inches of snow. I may get up to 8-12 inches by next weekend, but the models are still very uncertain at this point, but it does prove watching.

[sertorius]

Hey, looks like Lawrence and KC may get a little snow from this-the 12Z ETA has us getting about an inch-not much esp. compared to points east, but I'll take it!!! I think the models are playing catch up with this-you can see the spin beginning to form over western Texas and since it should follow the arctic boundry, it would take apretty good track for us-time to start watching the radars-maybe this thing will blow up in western Kansas and we can all get a good snow from it-a good old fashion central plains and Missouri Valley snow storm!!! It has been a while since this whole area Salina to St. Louis has had a good swath of snow from the same storm!!! Yes, I'm grasping at lots of straws here!!!!!

[madscientist]

The radar is snowing a band of light to moderate snow developing in central MO. Not sure if it is reaching the ground, though, as I haven't found a station in Missouri reporting any snow.

[sertorius]

I have some lt. snow developing to my west as well over Manhattan to Topeka and building, but it is going to take alot to reach the ground-this cold air is pretty darned dry-my humidity is at 48% right now. (I wish I could have that humidity in July!!!) Maybe I should build a huge tower then I'd see some snow!!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Here it is, the accumulation map based off of the 18UTC Model runs and local discussion guildence as well as my gut feeling. It is for Tonight through noon tomorrow.

[JenyEliza]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
107 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005

KSZ011-012-022>024-026-035>040-054-055-152030-
DICKINSON-NEMAHA-BROWN-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-JEFFERSON-LYON-OSAGE-DOUGLAS-
107 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005

.NOW...
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WERE BEING REPORTED FROM NEAR WESTMORELAND TO NEAR HOLTON. RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF FLURRIES FROM NEAR JUNCTION CITY TO THE MANHATTAN VICINITY. THE FLURRIES WERE GRADUALLY SPREADING OR DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A PERIOD OR TWO OF FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

$$

[JenyEliza]

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Can't wait until my new forecast comes out by St. Louis' WFO in an hour or so. If this storm does indeed form faster then expected and becomes more potent like you said, this map above may need to be changed some.

[madscientist]

Can't wait until my new forecast comes out by St. Louis' WFO in an hour or so. If this storm does indeed form faster then expected and becomes more potent like you said, this map above may need to be changed some.

The band is rather impressive on radar. However, only Knob Noster (what kind of name is that?) is reporting snow reaching the ground in the state of Misery. When will the air be moist enough to allow snow to reach the ground?

[sertorius]

I'm just glad I may get to see some flakes that may stick to the ground-besides the late November freak show storm (that happens once every 15 years) and 3/4 inch of ice, this winter so far has been pretty boring here-2 strong cold snaps is the biggest story for here. It is ironic that 5 days ago the gfs had this storm doing just what is happening (albeit now it is farther east-it was right on top of me) now and then it totally lost it and is now slowly bringing it back. When I saw the 12z eta today and then saw lt. snow begin to develop to my west I was estatic. I will see some flakes an inch at the upmost as it looks now, but Columbia, Mo east may see a pretty good snow-I mean the radar tells the story!!!

[madscientist]

...but Columbia, Mo east may see a pretty good snow-I mean the radar tells the story!!!

Hopeful, but the observation stations are reporting zilch. The air is too dry at the moment.

[sertorius]

Not nec. from this band-but it looks like this may be the area where the heavier snow develops when the low gets get going if in fact it does. The ETA does show Columbia and points east rec. more snow than KC West. The fact that the first bigger bands formed in this area, would indicate to me, that that is where the heavier snow will start if in fact this storm get's organized. Also, this band will help moisten the column quite a bit so than when the storm kicks out, the next bands can reach the ground. is this a garuntee-no-but Columbia east, based on the radar, is in a more favorable position to see accumalating snows than say the kansas city area (story of the past 15 years by the way!!) we're talking 2-3 inches as a max, but considering last night there was barely a mention, this wouldn't be too bad. I'm just hoping the eta is right and I can least see snow for 3 hours!!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Where's this low everyone is talking about? I don't see it on Satelite or anything like that. All I see is a distrubance of clouds, but no swirl that would at least indicate a upper level low. So Like where is it? Just curious to know what everyone is stalking about.

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Jefferson City, MO has just reported Snow at this hour. This is West of St. Louis, MO. A sign of the atomsphere moisting up??

[PurdueWx80]

Weak vort max is back in western KS, the OK panhandle and eastern CO. It'll come east but weaken in doing so. The culprit for snow further east will be the stronger vort in eastern Montana. It will dig into the trough and strengthen overnight as it induces weak cyclogenesis in the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. We'll probably see another area of snow develop in a few hours from the northern max as the one in the central Plains shears out.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... e&itype=wv