Pacific Northwest Weather

[andycottle]

Latest radar images from intellicast.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=ksea&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RegionalRadar&prodnav=none

[andycottle]

Hey cool Tim! You have a camera to take some snow pics? My temp still steady right now at the 7:40pm...32.7 degrees with DP still at 32. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

No digital camera... but I could regular pics and get them developed at Costco tomorrow!!

Better late than never.

[andycottle]

Regular pics are good to. If ya dont have a digital camera...then do you have a scanner to scan the pics? Would be neat for you to show us you snow. But hey...guess we all can use our imagination.

-- Andy

[R-Dub]

It is still very cold up north tonight! The Ferndale Lynden area here. Bellingham is only at 23 degrees.

1/15/05 Ferndale WA
7:38:38 PM CURRENT
Snow
Temperature (ºF) 21.0
Humidity (%) 97.1
Wind (mph) ENE 12.3
Pressure ("Hg) 30.27
Dew Point: 20.3 ºF

[R-Dub]

1/15/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:43:21 PM CURRENT
Freezing Rain
Temperature (ºF) 31.4
Humidity (%) 100.0
Wind (mph) S 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.29
Dew Point: 31.4 ºF
Snow Depth 1.5" Ice on top

[R-Dub]

This is from my friend from Lynden............................... NOT ME, though I wish it was!!!

Snowing hard here now, accumulating rapidly considering it is fine, dry powder!

Temp is DOWN from 27.1 to 23.1 degrees in less than half an hour! The precip is pulling cold air down to the surface! Wow, 4 degrees drop in 30 minutes, way cool! That means lots more snow and freezing rain before it warms up, could last past midnight with that kind of a change!

Wind has changed from east at 4 gusting to 7mph to NNE at 8mph gusting to 13mph! Dewpoint is up from 8 degrees to 18 degrees, a real jump too, now that moisture is getting to the surface!

[R-Dub]

This snipit was taken from the WXBLOG thread......

As far as FEBRUARY is concerned…

I have produced some maps which will illustrate my PRELIMINARY thoughts on how the pattern evolves over the course of the month.

I believe that the CURRENT pattern probably will not survive into the first week of FEB. IF the 50-50 low is transient and the NAO goes positive once again the PAC jet should once again come crashing through ending the +PNA pattern.

The MJO is almost through the current cycle and we should see it reload during the first two weeks of the FEB. At which time the pattern may once again for a short time favor the trough in the west and an enhanced PAC jet. Will it get to the extent of the previous few weeks? Probably not. The NAO will be a wild card here as the Atlantic SSTA setup is becoming increasingly favorable for a –NAO. Something (as you know) we’ve not seen really any of since early NOV.

In some ways the pattern this FEB (as I envision it being) reminds me of periods during the 1968-69 winter. A year in which the PAC jet was strong BUT the NAO prevented the east from seeing a significantly warm pattern. There are other similarities as well WRT to various global indices including the ENSO, PDO, but there was cold water in the GOA (NO warm pool centered near 150W) and the Atlantic SSTA configuration practically screamed –NAO. We are NOT at that point yet WRT the ATL SSTA and it may take us until March to get there (if we do at all).

[TT-SEA]

Tried to drive to North Bend and see how much snow they have there. Got STUCK trying to go up a hill away from our house. The car could not make it... just wheels spinning.

Put the car in reverse and backed into the driveway. Wife was mad that I was trying to drive in the snow anyways.

Still snowing really hard here. Temperature holding steady at 27 degrees. Another batch of moisture coming in so if it continues to fall as snow here it will be another 2 inches by 10 p.m. and a total of 6 inches on the ground.

[andycottle]

Ohhh how It would be nice if it was snowing here tonight..! That would be really neat. Just some light rain/freezing rain here at 8:12pm witha temp of 32. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

You are getting great outflow from E Washington! places on the east side are still in the single digits! You will see it for several more hrs yet I am sure! Ferndale now down to 19 degrees!! They were 27 degrees just a couple of hrs ago!

It's starting to drop again here, down to 30.9 degrees with freezing rain/ sleet falling.

[andycottle]

Still 32 degrees here at 8:22pm and no snow here. -- Andy

[W13]

Currently 28 F and moderate Freezing Rain as of 8:22 PM

[TT-SEA]

Next batch coming in as snow here. And coming really down hard now.

Radar starting to look "warmer" with more definition to the cells. Sharper edges.

Its only a matter of time before the warm air takes complete control.

For now... will just enjoy a total winter wonderland here.

[andycottle]

Weather Outlook:

Looking at todays GFS models...tomorrow will feature rain at times with highs in the mid-upper 40`s per MOS. Monday through next weekend still featuring a very wet weather pattern and some hefty rain at times. Look for high temps in the lower 50`s for the upcoming work week. In the long range, we keep are theme of a SW to Westerly flow aloft, fairly high 500MB heights, and very wet rainy days at times with oncoming systems about every other day or so. Get out your rain gear folks!:) -- Andy

[W13]

Temperature just dropped down to 27 F, so hopefully this freezing rain will turn to snow in a little while (is that possible?). Just walked outside and we easily have 0.30" of ice on our deck, which is shaded by several large trees so out front it must be something like 0.50" of ice. It was very sippery, and you couldn't even walk one step on the ice without losing your footing and almost falling down.

[andrewr]

If you are not seeing snow right now, then the chances are next to none that you will start to. Cold air isn't going to take over the warm air above.

[TT-SEA]

W13 - I believe it would be almost impossible to change to snow now down there. No place to your south or around Seattle has seen any snow since this afternoon. The warm air aloft is getting closer to the ground as we move through the night. So despite the temperature on the ground being 27 degrees... rain is likely.

The outflow down Snoqualmie Pass is still making for a splendid evening in North Bend... snowing moderately but the temperature is up to 28 degrees. The end is getting near.

[AnthonyC]

Yeah, if you're not seeing snow right now, you're chances are gone. Still have moderate freezing rain. It's been a quiet night...not one car has ventured the roadways. I still say we have about an inch of ice...sleet/freezing rain has fallen since about 1pm this afternoon. My outdoor thermometer still reads 27 F, but the dewpoint is at 31 F...so I'll assume it's 31 F. Bellingham is still getting good Frazer outflow, and that may continue until midnight...but once that warm front lifts north, the Frazer winds will end rather abruptly. Brian_from_Bellingham and Brennan...I hope you guys are having an awesome night!! This entire event has favored Bellingham. Temperatures are skyrocketing along the WA coast and southwest interior. One schoolnet station in Olympia reported a temperature of 38 F. TT-SEA, keep the updates coming! It's good to hear someone is getting some decent snow. Not a bad event overall...although I wish things would have started as snow...possibly 1-2 inches...transitioned to freezing rain and then ended as rain. Unfortunately we've been stuck with freezing rain the past 7-8 hours.

Anthony

[andycottle]

Hey Tim....I`m thinking your weather is almost like a movie. You know what happens in the end and there for you expect it (fill in blank) to happen. In this case....snow changing to rain! -- Andy