WAKEFIELD NWS indicates surprise storm. se va??

[rainstorm]

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FAST EVOLVING SITUATION
THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP. COMPARED 00Z GFS
AND ETA INITIALIZATION TO RAOBS AND FOUND THAT BOTH MODELS...ESP THE
ETA WERE FAR TOO WEAK WITH THE GRADIENT OF 850 AND 700 MB TEMPS ACRS
THE CAROLINAS...THUS LEADING THE MODELS TO WEAKER FRONTOGENESIS THAN
REALITY. THIS EXPLAINS MODELS LACK OF PRECIP (EVEN THOUGH PRECIP HAS
BEEN OCCURRING FOR SEVERAL HRS) OVR SRN NC. ANOTHER TROUBLING
FEATURE HAS BEEN MSAS 3 HR MSLP CHANGES BEING CLOSER TO COAST THAN
MDLS FCSTING. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TODAY TO HIGH CHC FOR SE VA/NE
NC/LWR VA/MD ERN SHORE. HAVE ALSO ADDED MIX TO SLEET/SNOW FARTHER
INLAND WHERE RUC LOW LVL THCKNSS VALUES ARE BLO 1300 M THROUGH 18Z.
WILL ALSO WATCH ORF WINDS CLOSELY...IF THEY BACK MORE TO 020-010
WILL NEED TO TREND COLDER AND ADD SLEET/SNOW ALL THE WAY TO COAST.
FCST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND PERHAPS UPDATED DURING
NXT FEW HRS. SEE LATEST SPSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

[DS]

There are currently flurries in chapel hill with an air temp of 34 F. There were reports of coatings of snow just to the south (pittsboro). The raleigh NWS is now issuing "less than one inch" amount immediately northeast of raleigh. I bet that northeast NC and SE Va will see at most 2 inches. The upper air support for this snow is moving off to the northeast and there are very clear ENE banding features on the radar, consistent with the lower level flow. Also, east of Raleigh, the temp profile looks marginal at best for snow, with sleet and rain more likely. Interesting event.