WXBLOG returns!! Complete update and FEB outlook...

[wxguy25]

Hey there Wx! I'm from SC here and very curious to know what are the prospects for the possibility of some accumulating snow here. You had mentioned the upper or nothern part of SC maybe getting in on the act.

Right now, I think the BEST prospects for anything significant are north of you across NC and VA. But this event is still several days away and alot can change.

Although SC looks like it can get in on SOME accumulating snow. Mainly across the North.

[Chris the Weather Man]

LOL, Take it easy! LOL

And how often is the UKMET is correct?

[wxguy25]

LOL, Take it easy! LOL

And how often does the UKMET is correct?

the UKMET does handle phasing the best.

[Chris the Weather Man]

That's what I believed and heard about....

[AnthonyC]

wxguy25,

Latest indications suggest a negative AO and negative PNA phase toward the end of January, beginning of February. If this were to evolve, the Pacific Northwest would be in heaven!! What are your thoughts on this?

Anthony

[wxguy25]

wxguy25,

Latest indications suggest a negative AO and negative PNA phase toward the end of January, beginning of February. If this were to evolve, the Pacific Northwest would be in heaven!! What are your thoughts on this?

Anthony

Sorry nice try. But NOT going to happen.

Latest indications from what? The GFS ensembles and the associated idiocy that comes with each run?



Look at the 14-day verification (last panel). The Ensembles have been doing a TREEIBLE job w/ the PNA and other teleconnections all winter.

I don’t see how the +PNA breaks down over the next 5-15 days as long as the NAO is negative and the 50-50 low is in place over eastern Canada. The jet cannot break through to crush the ridge unless that’s gone. Plus the MJO is in stage 6 – entering stage 7 which favors a + PNA pattern.

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/40daymjo.gif

The Atlantic SSTA configuration is becoming increasingly favorable for a –NAO and as a result the good days in the PAC northwest are probably over. You are NOT going to get the strong RNA pattern unless the NAO is positive.

Notice the split developing across the North Atlantic.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/sais ... _gl_sd.gif

As the MJO reloads the PAC jet may return for a week or week and a half at some point in FEB depending on how long it takes for the next phase to develop and push eastward.

Here are the AO ensembles. Look at that 14-day (lack of) verification. It is complete illogicality.



Here is the 0z D8-10 ecmwf. Notice the vertically stacked upper low over SE Canada. THIS is the 50-50 low and as long as it holds, the EUS trough will remain amplified and keep the PNA ridge up near 120 W.

The 12z D 7 ECMNWF actually had a strong Rex Block signature along the west coast near 120W. This is a horrible pattern for the PAC NW.

It’s like the song says “heaven isn’t too far away” for the EAST that is. In the PAC NW --- I’M convinced your best days are over.

[Anonymous]

Is philly in on any of the action? What does RIC mean wxguy25?

[wxguy25]

What does RIC mean wxguy25?

RICHMOND, VA

[Anonymous]

Is philly in on any of the action? Can you give me a model to look at to see the people who are supposed to get hit?

[AnthonyC]

wxguy25,

Most of those charts/ensembles show a turn toward a negative PNA phase. What are YOU looking at?! And even the AO charts/ensembles show a relative trend toward a negative phase.

Anthony

[wxguy25]

wxguy25,

Most of those charts/ensembles show a turn toward a negative PNA phase. What are YOU looking at?! And even the AO charts/ensembles show a relative trend toward a negative phase.

Anthony

What I'm saying is I think the GFS ensembles are WRONG. as they have been all winter.

Forecasting is not all about charts and graphs, ensembles, and numerical weather data. you have to understand cause and effect WRT to the pattern. Looking at the GFS ensembles are NOT going to help you. IF you looked at the ECMWF link I posted you would see it totally contradicts the GFS ensembles.

What I do think the GFS ensembles are correct about is the AO trending negative. Supported by the Changes in the Atlantic SSTA configuration.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Hmmm........... This might be a doozy...


By the way, I heard of a 3 wave pattern happening? What is a 3 wave patten? I heard of it, has 3 PVs? Not really sure....

[wxguy25]

Hmmm........... This might be a doozy...


By the way, I heard of a 3 wave pattern happening? What is a 3 wave patten? I heard of it, has 3 PVs? Not really sure....

three predominant longwave troughs over the northern hemisphere

[Chris the Weather Man]

Hmmm........... This might be a doozy...


By the way, I heard of a 3 wave pattern happening? What is a 3 wave patten? I heard of it, has 3 PVs? Not really sure....

three predominant longwave troughs over the northern hemisphere

Thank You very much.... Now, I heard that if that forms, there could be a Major Arctic Outbreak?

[hurricanemike]

Does N FL have the possiblity of seeing anything?

[Anonymous]

Wxguy, you say... "**IF** and I stress the word **IF** this is correct then we would be talking about a MAJOR east coast snowstorm from Northern SC to Maine. A MILLER B situation nonetheless (clipper bombs off the coast), BUT with the SLP deepening well below 1000mb before reaching the VA capes, this is likely a HIT for PHL-NYC and certainly New England." What does all this mean??? That either way the the storm will hit philly and nyc?

[Stephanie]

Wxguy, you say... "**IF** and I stress the word **IF** this is correct then we would be talking about a MAJOR east coast snowstorm from Northern SC to Maine. A MILLER B situation nonetheless (clipper bombs off the coast), BUT with the SLP deepening well below 1000mb before reaching the VA capes, this is likely a HIT for PHL-NYC and certainly New England." What does all this mean??? That either way the the storm will hit philly and nyc?

Yes, IF that is correct.

[Yankeegirl]

I am not really good at reading the maps and stuff, can you let me know if Houston is done with winter or if Feb is going to be a cold month... I would really like to see some more of the frozen precip here, the stuff at Christmas time was just a tease!!

[wxguy25]

Wxguy, you say... "**IF** and I stress the word **IF** this is correct then we would be talking about a MAJOR east coast snowstorm from Northern SC to Maine. A MILLER B situation nonetheless (clipper bombs off the coast), BUT with the SLP deepening well below 1000mb before reaching the VA capes, this is likely a HIT for PHL-NYC and certainly New England." What does all this mean??? That either way the the storm will hit philly and nyc?

Yes, IF that is correct.

I no longer see that as being a feasible solution

UNLESS there is a major change in the way the models interpret the synoptic set-up I see no way the s/w could come up the coast w/ the 50-50 low there. It should get shoved out to sea.

What we MAY see is a swath of significant snow beginning over the upper Midwest 5-100 Miles north of the track of s/w that tapes off somewhat across the lower OV and WRN Mid Atlantic region – However THEN as the SFC low jumps to the coast (MILLER B Situation where a clipper re-develops along the coast and bombs out) it will throw back ATRL moisture and we would be talking about a Significant snowstorm for ERN NC, VA, SRN MD, DE, S NJ. The major cities DCA-BWI-PHL being on the fence, and NYC-BDL-BOX out of the loop.

Maps illustrating this idea will be out soon.

[wxguy25]

Does N FL have the possiblity of seeing anything?

Much colder temps, yes. Snow or frozen precip from the clipper probably not.