Pacific Northwest Weather

[W13]

Still holding steady at 38 F, after a High Temperature of 39 F. It was supposed to get up to 47 F here.

[AnthonyC]

Unbelievably mild weather today...it's almost 45 F going to the library today.

An unbelievably mild, wet pattern is taking shape over the Eastern Pacific this entire week. Some early indications suggest rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches over the lowland regions. With snow levels at around 10k, you know what that means...say goodbye to the ski season!! The Monday morning storm shows a good fetch of moisture that originated from Hawaii and an old tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific. Expect rain for the majority of the day.

[TT-SEA]

Some the experts on this site have been posting in other threads about the fact that the PNA will not go strongly negative like we have been hoping it would.

These guys are extremely intelligent and amazingly accurate.

One of them said that he is convinced that the Pacific Northwest is done with winter.

I have been looking at their reasoning and I have to agree. I think it is going to be mild and wet from here on out.

[AnthonyC]

TT-SEA,

Half of these people...who are supposed WEATHER EXPERTS...know complete crap and fabricate every little thing. To say winter's over in lowlands when there's still 8-9 weeks of potential, is ludicrous. Don't be pessimistic, be optimistic. Although it might turn out like last year...no winter after the early January snowstorm...the potential is there and I think we'll have one more bout of arctic air/snow. Almost all guidances support another negative PNA AND AO phase. That would be awesome for the lowlands. And to sum up the intillegence of some people on these forums, a majority of them have been predicting a MAJOR nor'easter the past two months...has one occurred? I think not. So don't write off the winter.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

This winter has been quite odd with the models not knowing what the heck its going to do. The PNA forecast has been right on though (another member of the fourm with the WXBlOG thread mentioned that the PNA forecasting models have been completely wrong IS wrong! I have been looking at just that all winter to see where the PNA was going in the extended, and everytime when it showed a trend, it followed that exact trend. Back in the end of DEC the ensembles showed the PNA going off the charts negitive, and guess what......it did, when alot of people said that NO the PNA wasn't going negitive, or not that far negitive, I hate to say this because everyone on this fourm are great people, but there was some east coast bias going on). So that is what I have been going by as far as general weather patterns. The other thing is like I said earlier is you don't have to have a "off the charts negitive PNA" A lot of our arctic blasts, or prolonged cold spells have only been moderate negitive PNA. Also like I said earlier is the AO if it is negitive at all, that helps us out greatly. This last cold spell sure the PNA was off the charts neg, but the AO was off the charts POSITIVE! It looks like a different pattern by the end of the month, Moderate neg PNA and AO. I really don't want the same pattern we were just in! We got crap other then some cold air, so its a good thing that things are looking different for the end of the month, it could just be the right setup!

I really think its way too premature to think winter here is over.
Also notice that the GFS is showing a complete zonal pattern in the extended with not much of anything going on. My experience has been when the models look like that, wait a few days, they will change dramaticlly. I can say with 95% certainty that the US will not be in that kind of a flat zonal pattern!!!!

1/16/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:31:51 PM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 44.7
Humidity (%) 95.5
Wind (mph) ESE 3.3
Daily Rain (") 0.17
Pressure ("Hg) 30.30
Dew Point: 43.5 ºF

[R-Dub]

In the mean time, it looks like the Pineapple Express is going to pay us a visit!!!!!


FLOOD WATCH BULLETIN NO. 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2005

WAC009-027-031-033-045-057-061-073-170552-
352 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 12 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING WESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES..

COUNTIES IN WASHINGTON: CLALLAM...GRAYS HARBOR...JEFFERSON...KING..
MASON...SKAGIT...SNOHOMISH...WHATCOM.

$$

A STRONG WET SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE MOST
FLOOD PRONE RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON IN THE OLYMPICS AND CENTRAL
CASCADES COULD BEGIN FLOODING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING
A PLUME OF WARM TROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM NORTHWEST
OF HAWAII...AND EVEN HAS A TAP INTO TROPICAL STORM KULAP OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET WHILE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
AND CENTRAL CASCADES.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT IMMINENT OR
CERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE ALONG A FLOOD PRONE RIVER IN THE WATCH AREA...BE
READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A FLOOD
WARNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS THE
CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 335 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2005 .

BIG UPCOMING ISSUE IS THE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT WAVE IS INSIDE 130W THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FASTER TIMING IS MORE LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IT TAPPED INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE NE OF HAWAII...AND THERE IS EVEN A FEED FURTHER WEST TO TROPICAL STORM KULAP OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC. MORNING AMSU IMAGERY SHOWED OVER 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE PLUME OFFSHORE NEAR 40N/150W. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS VARY WITH THE MM5GFS THE HEAVIEST BY FAR. ETA QPF SUPPORTED THE 12Z QPS PRODUCT AND NWRFC ENDORSES THIS SO WILL STAY WITH LATEST RIVER PROJECTIONS. WITH MAX 850 MB FLOW SW 50+ KT OVER THE OLYMPICS AT TIMES AND SW 40+ KT AT TIMES OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT IS HEADED THERE. THE EARLIEST RIVERS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE COULD DO IT AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THE HOSING CONTINUES WITH ONLY MINOR LULLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A BIGGER LULL DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC BAND SHIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER PLUME MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH ALL THE WARM ADVECTION...AT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. HAVE BOOSTED MAXES UP TO AT OR JUST BELOW GFS MOS. KAM

[R-Dub]

Cold still hanging on in Whatcom Co, they are 12 degrees colder then I am!!!!

1/16/05 Blaine WA
6:59:21 PM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 31.6
Humidity (%) 100.0
Wind (mph) SE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.81
Pressure ("Hg) 30.31
Dew Point:
31.1 ºF

[andycottle]

You know...while were on the topic of temperatures...I`ve seen more mid-upper 30`s than what I have low 40`s so far this month. Looking back of what I have written down for Dec. 2004, we had some pretty mild days. 6 days right in a row! And that occured the 10th - 15th. Had a high of 56 on the 10th, which was the warmest day of the month for me. In between thoes days/times...my temps were generally in the low-mid 40`s.

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

It's incredible to see another Pineapple Express. This is a good sign...usually two/three weeks after the PE, we have an arctic outbreak. We'll have to wait on that. Unfortunately it's bad news for the local ski resorts. My friend was at Stevens Pass today, and he overheard some local employees talking about the possibility of a closure beginning Wednesday. We'll have to wait and see. Snoqualmie Pass will get the brunt of this. They barely have a two foot base...after this next event, I wouldn't be surprised if they were down to nothing. Has a ski season ever ended early because of no snow? This could possibly be the worst ski season in recorded history. The sad part about this, is the fact we are not in a severe El Nino. We're barely in a weak El Nino phase. And some parts of the lowlands have experienced snow the past two weeks...you'd think Snoqualmie Pass would have abundant snow.

Anthony

Currently 49 F!!! Incredibly warm. Just got back from the grocery store and some people weren't wearing jackets!!! First time I've seen that since Xmas.

[andrewr]

Here comes the rain: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... nd%2c%20OR

[andycottle]

Viewing tonights MRF and 18z GFS...it appears that we are still in for a very wet week ahead. For tomorrow, we can expect moderate/heavy rain through the day with a high in the upper 40`s and lows near 40. 18th - 19th are taking a VERY WET look, as precip totals could range anywhere from .75 to 1.25" of rain! May see a little lull in the precip for Thurday evening, but then it`s back to more rain. 21st could feature a few showers and sunbreaks. Saturday features lights/scattered showers with Sunday featuring a 'few' showers and also some sunbreaks. Through the begining of the work week and beyond, we have a nice SW to Westerly flow aloft which will bring us plenty of rainy and mild weather. Toward end of the month..around the 31st, we might/may see bit of a NW flow which could make our weather cooler again. But 500MB are only around 522DM or so.

-- Andy

[frankthetank]

"some east coast bias going on"

I feel your pain. The weather world in general lives in an East coast bubble. I 've been reading here and there on this thread (good friend lives in Portland) and find West coast fascinating. I was just talking to my friend, she was saying that she has tulips (?) that have been up since fall, but won't open...My tulips? frozen solid for the past 2 months... good luck out there and i really hope you get bombed with a backdoor arctic blast... j/k

[TT-SEA]

Yes... we will definitely have to wait and see what comes after this bout with the Pineapple Express.

If the Pineapple Express happens every year... how does Snoqualmie Summit survive?? Every time it happens it completely destoys their business.

So... if we getting massive rains in the next week and it reduces our mountain snowcover to nothing... does that mean really low rivers and lakes this summer?

In Southern California it was the Pineapple Express itself that re-filled the reservoirs and replenished water supplies. Despite the mudslides... it is considered a blessing from God.

I guess my question is... why doesn't the rain itself help our water supply?? Why am hearing all these dire warnings about drought this summer?

[snow_wizzard]

That is a great question. I think some of the worriers just aren't seeing that water is water, whether it's snow or rain. The only thing that does hurt us it the fact that snow can melt slowly over a period of time to gradually release the water. Rain gives a quick shot all at once. At any rate, I think the mountains will see tons of snow before the winter and early spring are finished. I think the recent cold spell is proof enough that the El Nino is not the only player this winter....

[cloud9]

Nice to see you snow_wizzard, everyones been asking where you've been. This is a nice site to discuss weather.

[snow_wizzard]

Thanks for that! I am wondering how I get up to something above a tropical wave.

[TT-SEA]

Some interesting weather this morning...

52 degrees in Bellingham with rain... that should be the end of any snow up there.

Amazingly it is 16 degrees at Stampede Pass with freezing rain!! I-90 is completely closed east of my location in North Bend.

In fact it is only 35 degrees here at my house and raining pretty hard so we are just a couple degrees from a major ice storm. Once you get out of the Snoqualmie Valley it is in the mid-40's in Bellevue and Issaquah.

I also noticed that Portland has freezing rain and 32 degrees.

Cold air is REALLY hard to remove from these valleys!!

[andycottle]

Just plain Ol` rain here in Woodinville at 7:58am. My temp right now is 42 with DP 43 and humidity 100%. Baro is 29.83 and steady. Also, we have recieved .24" so from during the overnight hours...so will I add on to that amount for anymore we get today -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Unbelievable amounts of rain the past 6-9 hours...some places in the lowlands already over an inch. And this shows no sign of letting up anytime soon. Good fetch of moisture that originated from the Hawaiian Islands. This should continue for the next 36 hours. Wednesday evening/night may see a break, but a strong cold front moves through Thursday/Friday morning. The weekend doesn't look too bad as of now.

Anthony

Currently 51 F!!

[Brian_from_bellingham]

In one hour the temperature at the Bellingham airport went from 35 degrees to 52 degrees.

I also agree that winter is not necessarily over, though I have respect for the experts' opinions. Many of these same experts said that there was no way the northwest would get any cold air this winter, and although we were all disappointed at this cold blast that never really materialized, it was colder and some areas did get hit with snow. I remember seeing the CPC predicting warmer then normal temps in the northwest for January, and they made that prediction right when all the models were showing severely cold weather for us for two weeks. I think that is El Nino bias, without any serious forecasting or thinking. All in all this will be at best a normal January for temps (colder for the first 15 days, maybe warmer for the next 15, evening out in the end), and with any luck, it will be a colder then normal January.

By the way, the PNA forecast is looking more and more negative with each day. Starting to look like the setup a few weeks before this latest cold air we just had. I agree that having a negative AO will also help. That may have been the missing ingrediant last time.