Is the 12z Euro out yet?

DLI2k5 · #1 Postby **DLI2k5** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 1:15 pm

Wanted to know when to expect the runs for the 12z Euro to be out. Based on current runs from most of the models, does it appear this storm is taking a more southbound track and would it increase the chances of seeing some good snows say Atlanta, Columbia and Charlotte?

#2 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 1:20 pm

Yes, it is, and it has a 965 mb low sitting southeast of Long Island next Monday morning...came from near Cape Hatteras...

Surface chart with 850 winds...

500 geopotential heights...

This would be a near-blizzard for the NC Capes up to NYC or so....

#3 Postby **wxguy25** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 1:26 pm

Yeah MECS boston and South. looks like the northward trend i described yesterday event WRT to the SLP area and associated upper features is looking better.

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 1:27 pm

This would have a healthy snowstorm from the Plains, through the Ohio Valley and lower Lakes and right into the Mid Atlantic. The streams are nearly fully phased by Sunday/Monday as the upper low sitting under the west coast ridge is kicked out and meets the clipper/energy coming in from the northern branch. That storm would imply feet of snow in the DC area with a major battering for the coastline (powerful windstorm with huge waves) up to the Canadian Maritimes at points after 168 hours.

DLI2k5 · #5 Postby **DLI2k5** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 1:30 pm

I'm trying to interpret the map and trying to figure out the impact it would have on SC particularly, i don't mean to keep asking, but I truly love snow here, esp me being in the south and any chance we get to have it, i get inquisitive! What would happen on the 23rd, because it's got the date of the 24th, is that when we possibly would see something from this?

#6 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 1:35 pm

Unfortunately for you, at least according to the Euro, the surface low tracks just north of the state. Unless there is a significant cold air damming event before this storm, it would be warmer with rain and thunderstorms in most of South Carolina. The closest the snow would be in the coastal plains of central and northern NC. This is an entire week out and it is an unusual scenario to have the streams phase like this, so plenty can change in the meantime. I haven't seen the new UKMET, but last night's offered the possibility of a MUCH further south solution, not too different from the Euro, but it would give SC a better chance of snow. It will all be a matter of how much energy gets kicked out of the upper low west of Mexico and how much of the northern branch energy is sent over the ridge along the west coast.

#7 Postby **wxguy25** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 1:35 pm

wxguy25 wrote:Yeah MECS boston and South. looks like the northward trend i described yesterday event WRT to the SLP area and associated upper features is looking better.

Wnghs2007 · #8 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 2:23 pm

I LIKE....With CADDING TO.....

MUHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHA :grrr:

And the Falcons vs Eagles will be in a Blizzard possibly if the Euro is Right.

UKMET agrees in Upper Set Up but not Synoptically.

DLI2k5 · #9 Postby **DLI2k5** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 2:27 pm

Hey there Wnghs! I'm hoping the Falcons can pull it off too buddy! I'm a Panthers fan here, but since they didn't make it, i'll pull for the next best team! lol.......As per your map, is this indicative of snow in your area and mine?

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 2:32 pm

DLI2k5 wrote:Hey there Wnghs! I'm hoping the Falcons can pull it off too buddy! I'm a Panthers fan here, but since they didn't make it, i'll pull for the next best team! lol.......As per your map, is this indicative of snow in your area and mine?

Sounds more like an ice event... wedges usually do that. Shallow layer of cold air.

Oh and GO FALCONS!!!!!

sertorius · #11 Postby **sertorius** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 2:33 pm

I'm not really good enough at this to tell if I will get rain or snow or ice, but I do know that the difference in precip. amounts for my area between the 0z and 12z for Saturday are pretty big. I would say that I will get mostly rain here and then change to some snow towards the end. It even shows me in some precip on Monday and that may have a better chance of being frozen. But good gosh: the east coast-wow!!!! For you snow lovers out there-good luck-be careful-if this verifies-this will be quite the dangerous storm!!!!

BL03 · #12 Postby **BL03** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 2:39 pm

Wnghs2007 · #13 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 2:40 pm

DLI2k5 wrote:Hey there Wnghs! I'm hoping the Falcons can pull it off too buddy! I'm a Panthers fan here, but since they didn't make it, i'll pull for the next best team! lol.......As per your map, is this indicative of snow in your area and mine?

Well I will have to wait until later on this afternoon to see Raleighwx Surface maps and stuff he likes to post. Right now I have no idea about surface temps. But since this is a CAD situation and most models do a terrible job on CAD strength and such I would not be suprised to see surface temps continue to be indicated lower.

I also heard an interesting suggestion from wow just a few minutes ago.... and it went like this...

WOW wrote:Comparing this run to the 0z, you can see that the trough has shifted about 100 miles WEST, thus giving the opportunity for a full phase and an outright blizzard by the time it hits the east coast. Should it shift to the west agan, this could make push the surface low into the GOM, since it would have more room to dig further--similar to Jan 96. Just throwing that up in the air.

Now this would be very interesting. Because then we would go from a Miller B to a Miller A which is more of a classic Winter Storm for the Deep South. Now this would be really exciting but it is just 1 run. As of right now the runs will flip somewhat this far out. The judgment time as stated by HM on another site is going to be around Thursday when the models will have a better handle on the 50/50 low

Keep hoping for the best my friend.

PS: GO FALCONS

BL03 · #14 Postby **BL03** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 2:43 pm

What a great run of the 12z Euro it is!
More NE............looks like it phases, bombs and boom up NE

Its different than last few runs but its a north trend. If the next few runs show this than .............. :eek:

#15 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 3:18 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
DLI2k5 wrote:Hey there Wnghs! I'm hoping the Falcons can pull it off too buddy! I'm a Panthers fan here, but since they didn't make it, i'll pull for the next best team! lol.......As per your map, is this indicative of snow in your area and mine?

Well I will have to wait until later on this afternoon to see Raleighwx Surface maps and stuff he likes to post. Right now I have no idea about surface temps. But since this is a CAD situation and most models do a terrible job on CAD strength and such I would not be suprised to see surface temps continue to be indicated lower.

I also heard an interesting suggestion from wow just a few minutes ago.... and it went like this...

WOW wrote:Comparing this run to the 0z, you can see that the trough has shifted about 100 miles WEST, thus giving the opportunity for a full phase and an outright blizzard by the time it hits the east coast. Should it shift to the west agan, this could make push the surface low into the GOM, since it would have more room to dig further--similar to Jan 96. Just throwing that up in the air.

Now this would be very interesting. Because then we would go from a Miller B to a Miller A which is more of a classic Winter Storm for the Deep South. Now this would be really exciting but it is just 1 run. As of right now the runs will flip somewhat this far out. The judgment time as stated by HM on another site is going to be around Thursday when the models will have a better handle on the 50/50 low

Keep hoping for the best my friend.

PS: GO FALCONS

There is no scenario in this situation in which I see a low forming in the GOM. The northern branch will be the dominant feature, and it isn't digging in from the Rockies. To get a low to do that the trough would have to start off much further west and south, and the southern branch feature would have to be much stronger and come out at once, rather than in pieces. Also, there is only a 1020 mb High off the East coast, so the cold air damming would be insignificant.

I hope this run puts to rest some of the people who are complaining about no storms in Philly or the Mid-Atlantic - if the Euro verifies we should all rub it in their faces, because DC, Philly, NYC and Boston would wind up with 1-3' of snow.

krysof · #16 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 3:43 pm

is that 1-3 inches or feet of snow?

Website · #17 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 3:50 pm

krysof wrote:is that 1-3 inches or feet of snow?

Feet. " would be inches

yoda · #18 Postby **yoda** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 3:50 pm

krysof wrote:is that 1-3 inches or feet of snow?

1-3 FEET.

krysof · #19 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 4:04 pm

I would think if the euro is correct, 1 or 2 feet can accumulate. Which model is the best with handling snowstorms or precipitation?

yoda · #20 Postby **yoda** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 4:06 pm

krysof wrote:I would think if the euro is correct, 1 or 2 feet can accumulate. Which model is the best with handling snowstorms or precipitation?

Euro is.

Is the 12z Euro out yet?

Is the 12z Euro out yet?

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