Is the 12z Euro out yet?

JenyEliza · #41 Postby **JenyEliza** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 4:55 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
JenyEliza wrote:But the question is...who is that big bad dog barking at?? --ie, who are the lucky snow recipient(s)?

One thing with Miller B's is that SOMEONE always gets screwed (b/c of a dry slot w/ the transferrance of energy) ... I'm still not exactly sold on just how far north the primary low goes before the 2nd low (secondary) explodes offshore ... the 500mb pattern argues for a further south primary, before the secondary takes over, IMHO ...

SF

Further south sounds good to me!! I really would like to see some snow this weekend (it's my twin's birthday, and that's ALL they've asked for this year). :cheesy:

Also, considering Atlanta has seen exactly EIGHT snowflakes this year (yes, I counted them), and last year wasn't much to write home about either--I think we're due for a nice snow storm!!

Meanwhile, we'll just have to sit back and watch as we get closer to the weekend and this storm unfolds.

Crossing fingers!!

Jeny

Oh yeah....

GO FALCONS!!

Stormsfury · #42 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 4:59 pm

DLI2k5 wrote:Is this showing any signs of giving the midlands of SC through Charlotte, some good snowfall as far as what you see now? Trying to take in what you folks are saying and interpreting it.

I have seen individual maps for the ECMWF on Day 5, 6, and 7 ... and it's very interesting and potentially damaging WRT to the Carolinas (AT FACE VALUE) ... on the initial surge of moisture out ahead of the SLP, decent isentropic lift out ahead of the warm front throws a lot of moisture over the top of the wedge in the Carolinas, producing a combo of SN/IP/ZR across MOST of the Carolinas on Day 5 ... and it COULD be a damaging event, per ECMWF....

On Day 6, the warm air advection at 850mb takes hold across Eastern SC, and either changes all the precip to RAIN or ZR given the 850mb temperatures warm from 0º to +4º at CHS with a dry slot punching into most of SC, and Central NC ...

wraparound snowfalls in Northern GA, including ATL with 850mb temperatures at -4ºC ... and on Day 7, the precip is out to sea with 850mb temperatures crashing down well below 0ºC across the boards in GA/SC ...

sertorius · #43 Postby **sertorius** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:02 pm

Well for me in the central plains, if I am reading it correctly, and I'm prob. not, I could see a farily good snow from this on Saturday. I posted about this in the Lawrence/KC thread but thought I'd just mention something here-I hope I'm reading things right!!!

jkt21787 · #44 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:06 pm

Another VERY GOOD discussion, from NWS Louisville KY

ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD ON TAP AS LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED...WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LARGE TROF IN THE EAST. PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST SUITE OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVING THROUGH THE PERIOD. DURING THE WEEKEND...THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA (50-50 LOW/POLAR VORTEX) WILL HELP DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING OVER GREENLAND (NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN). WITH THIS OCCURRING...MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER WEST. ALL OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A POTENTIAL EAST COAST STORM (MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEM). RECENT MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE ADVERTISED THIS SETUP VERY WELL. WITH RESPECT TO SYSTEM TO IMPACT US...THE ECMWF YESTERDAY HAD THE SFC LOW GOING RIGHT THROUGH KENTUCKY. THE LATEST RUN (17/00Z) IS NOW FURTHER WEST AND BIT MORE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE 17/12Z GFS IS NOW TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE ETA IS ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH 84 HOURS...A VERY ENCOURAGING SIGN. FOR NOW...I AM SIDING WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS WELL. HOWEVER THE QUESTION MARK HERE IS HOW MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW? ALL OF THE CRITICAL THICKNESS AND THERMAL PROFILES ARE ON THE SNOW SIDE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARMING MAY RESULT IN MIXED P-TYPE VARIETY. IT IS FAR TO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IS CERTAINLY THERE. CLEARING AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE SCALED BACK TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z MEX/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

You folks on the East Coast that were already writing off winter may have spoke too soon it seems, at least if the Euro verifies. The AFDs in the Ohio Valley say this could be a storm for you too. I already see the excitement building!

Unfortuantely, this storm is not for me. Only have a 20% chance of rain this weekend here

.

Anonymous · #45 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:09 pm

This is pretty cool. I mean one minute places like nyc, boston and philly are out of the picture completly. But now they could get 1-2 feet. Weather is amazing! Wxguy, will you be putting out new maps now because of this model?

JenyEliza · #46 Postby **JenyEliza** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:11 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
DLI2k5 wrote:Is this showing any signs of giving the midlands of SC through Charlotte, some good snowfall as far as what you see now? Trying to take in what you folks are saying and interpreting it.

I have seen individual maps for the ECMWF on Day 5, 6, and 7 ... and it's very interesting and potentially damaging WRT to the Carolinas (AT FACE VALUE) ... on the initial surge of moisture out ahead of the SLP, decent isentropic lift out ahead of the warm front throws a lot of moisture over the top of the wedge in the Carolinas, producing a combo of SN/IP/ZR across MOST of the Carolinas on Day 5 ... and it COULD be a damaging event, per ECMWF....

On Day 6, the warm air advection at 850mb takes hold across Eastern SC, and either changes all the precip to RAIN or ZR given the 850mb temperatures warm from 0º to +4º at CHS with a dry slot punching into most of SC, and Central NC ...

wraparound snowfalls in Northern GA, including ATL with 850mb temperatures at -4ºC ... and on Day 7, the precip is out to sea with 850mb temperatures crashing down well below 0ºC across the boards in GA/SC ...

He said "snowfall" and "Atlanta" in the same sentence!! WOOO HOOO!!

:woo:

jkt21787 · #47 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:12 pm

Jrodd321 wrote:This is pretty cool. I mean one minute places like nyc, boston and philly are out of the picture completly. But now they could get 1-2 feet. Weather is amazing!

Isn't that the truth!
Of course, if you follow the GFS that happens on a daily basis. :ggreen:

JenyEliza · #48 Postby **JenyEliza** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:13 pm

Anonymous · #49 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:14 pm

I have a question. How does the EURO model today differ from yesterdays? Did it have the storm more south and not digging a lot?

krysof · #50 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:16 pm

Probably! I'm not sure either.

Website · #51 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:16 pm

JenyEliza wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:
DLI2k5 wrote:Is this showing any signs of giving the midlands of SC through Charlotte, some good snowfall as far as what you see now? Trying to take in what you folks are saying and interpreting it.

I have seen individual maps for the ECMWF on Day 5, 6, and 7 ... and it's very interesting and potentially damaging WRT to the Carolinas (AT FACE VALUE) ... on the initial surge of moisture out ahead of the SLP, decent isentropic lift out ahead of the warm front throws a lot of moisture over the top of the wedge in the Carolinas, producing a combo of SN/IP/ZR across MOST of the Carolinas on Day 5 ... and it COULD be a damaging event, per ECMWF....

On Day 6, the warm air advection at 850mb takes hold across Eastern SC, and either changes all the precip to RAIN or ZR given the 850mb temperatures warm from 0º to +4º at CHS with a dry slot punching into most of SC, and Central NC ...

wraparound snowfalls in Northern GA, including ATL with 850mb temperatures at -4ºC ... and on Day 7, the precip is out to sea with 850mb temperatures crashing down well below 0ºC across the boards in GA/SC ...

He said "snowfall" and "Atlanta" in the same sentence!! WOOO HOOO!!

I wouldn't hold your breath... how many threats have we had and them not materalize?

I'm excited about seeing snow up in Gatlinburg though. Each run is showing enough for an inch or two.

JenyEliza · #52 Postby **JenyEliza** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:20 pm

Well, considering I just stocked up in $350 worth of groceries etc at the local warehouse club, I feel rather certain we'll have a storm that will cause us to lose power (and of course, my groceries). See...my theory is really very scientific if you look at it from this angle.

I'm just glad to see something to be hopeful about in the winter weather dept. It's always fun waiting, watching and hoping for a storm. The let down sucks, but....if there were no rain, we'd have no flowers.

So....here I go....I'm gonna be happy about this while I can!!!

:multi:

Website · #53 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:23 pm

JenyEliza wrote:Well, considering I just stocked up in $350 worth of groceries etc at the local warehouse club, I feel rather certain we'll have a storm that will cause us to lose power (and of course, my groceries). See...my theory is really very scientific if you look at it from this angle.

I'm just glad to see something to be hopeful about in the winter weather dept. It's always fun waiting, watching and hoping for a storm. The let down sucks, but....if there were no rain, we'd have no flowers.

So....here I go....I'm gonna be happy about this while I can!!!

LOL!

yoda · #54 Postby **yoda** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:32 pm

Well folks... the 18z GFS seems to be joining the EC.. FOR NOW!!!

Website · #55 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:33 pm

Jeny...

7am Sunday:

Look at 132 hours(1am Sunday). Looks like Moderate or Heavy Snow where I'll be. 8-)

Anonymous · #56 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:33 pm

yoda wrote:Well folks... the 18z GFS seems to be joining the EC.. FOR NOW!!!

They are agreeing on the new EURO?

krysof · #57 Postby **krysof** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:35 pm

Yes, the gfs is agreeing with the Euro and other models. We really may have something here, but considering it's the gfs, it's probably temporary.

yoda · #58 Postby **yoda** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:36 pm

krysof wrote:Yes, the gfs is agreeing with the Euro and other models. We really may have something here, but considering it's the gfs, it's probably temporary.

Hmm.. don't think so. I believe we are finally seeing some consistency here...

jkt21787 · #59 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:36 pm

the 18z GFS is still offshore with the heaviest QPF so far, but is much closer to the coast, it is following the trend. It is the notoriously bad 18z run, so just keep an eye out for now.

But again, watch the trend. And the trend is very good for you guys.

JenyEliza · #60 Postby **JenyEliza** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:37 pm

Brent wrote:Jeny...

7am Sunday:

Look at 132 hours(1am Sunday). Looks like Moderate or Heavy Snow where I'll be.

Best chances I've seen for Atlanta this winter....!!

:multi:

:multi::multi::multi::multi::multi::multi::multi::multi:

Is the 12z Euro out yet?

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