Pacific Northwest Weather

TT-SEA · #421 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:32 pm

Here is the 18Z GFS showing precipitation totals from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening (60 hours). Notice the heaviest rain is shifting north...

And then for the following 60 hours (Thursday evening through Sunday morning)... the worst is still pointed at Vancouver Island rather than Seattle.

snow_wizzard · #422 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:32 pm

I have thought of those things, but...

A. Another 24 to 30 hours of this will be more than enough to do it.

B. The only places below freezing are the valley bottoms. The peaks above are all above freezing and that water will have nice a solid ice layer to ride right into the rivers.

I admit, it will interesting to see how all of the variables play out. By the way...the MM5, which is a special model that takes terrain into effect is showing rainfall totals that are beyond belief before the mositure moves north.

TT-SEA · #423 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:33 pm

Today is probably the worst of it for most of Western Washington.

andrewr · #424 Postby **andrewr** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:39 pm

Amanda Park is all ready over 8" today. I was expecting that over a few days, not in 14.5 hours. It hasn't been too bad where I live though, only around 1.25" so far.

snow_wizzard · #425 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:40 pm

TT...I think we can agree that you are the most conservative guy on here and I am the most extreme. I expect we will end up in the middle of our scenarios. I am intrigued by the fact that the mositure plume is actually coming up further west than previous runs had shown. This in turn makes the flow hitting us more WSW or even W. That suggest the mositure band will take longer to lift out than previously thought. It also rams the moisture up against the mountain, whcih causes enhanced rainfall. I have a feeling this is going to be ugly before it's over.

W13 · #426 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:41 pm

45 F and 1.40" of rain as of 2:41 PM

AnthonyC · #427 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:43 pm

A small break as of now. But the winds have substanially increased...gusts up to 35mph.

TT-SEA · #428 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:46 pm

I love this debate by the way. My wife couldn't care less about weather!!

From the 16km satellite view of the Pacific you can see one batch of moisture over us now (kind of moving WSW through the area).

Then you can clearly see the rest of the plume organizing to the west and its pointed more towards BC. It looks like the first batch will shear off as it is now and then the really organized plume will head into BC

[img]http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/16km/IR16.GIF [/img]

W13 · #429 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:47 pm

snow_wizzard wrote:I have thought of those things, but...

A. Another 24 to 30 hours of this will be more than enough to do it.

B. The only places below freezing are the valley bottoms. The peaks above are all above freezing and that water will have nice a solid ice layer to ride right into the rivers.

I admit, it will interesting to see how all of the variables play out. By the way...the MM5, which is a special model that takes terrain into effect is showing rainfall totals that are beyond belief before the mositure moves north.

No kidding about the MM5 GFS! I just took a quick look at it and the precip amounts are absolutely insane! :eek:

W13 · #430 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:49 pm

AnthonyC wrote:A small break as of now. But the winds have substanially increased...gusts up to 35mph.

No wind to speak of at the moment here. Other places are seeing the wind increase, though.

Tommorow could be a potential wind storm for parts of Western Washington as well. I haven't heard NWS discuss this since early in the weekend, but it now seems that the Cascade Foothills could get sustained winds of 20-35 mph with much higher gusts.

Brian_from_bellingham · #431 Postby **Brian_from_bellingham** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:55 pm

Snow Wizzard, have you emailed Brennan lately? I think we would all like to see him post on here, since I have pretty much given up on Almanac.com.

Randy on the Yahoo site pointed out that CPC is saying some models are hinting at a ridge amplifying off the west coast and maybe another trough forming in the NW, similar to earlier in January. There is hope.

W13 · #432 Postby **W13** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:02 pm

Brian_from_bellingham wrote:Snow Wizzard, have you emailed Brennan lately? I think we would all like to see him post on here, since I have pretty much given up on Almanac.com.

Randy on the Yahoo site pointed out that CPC is saying some models are hinting at a ridge amplifying off the west coast and maybe another trough forming in the NW, similar to earlier in January. There is hope.

Brennan recently registered on here, but he just hasn't posted yet.

TT-SEA · #433 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:09 pm

For what its worth... the new 18Z run of the GFS is very zonal through the entire run until the very end when we might be under high pressure. No hint of winter returning.

For what its worth.

snow_wizzard · #434 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:11 pm

Brennan never got the email confirmation link to click on. He doesn't know why. That is good news the CPC is mentioning another cold spell for us. I bet they're right.

TT-SEA · #435 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:11 pm

Also... nice break in the heavy rain now for much of the Puget Sound area. Allows rivers to "catch their breath"

More on the way though.

snow_wizzard · #436 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:23 pm

TT...The 18z still shows us in a northerly flow by early Feb. I think it shows the ridge too close, because the enemble mean has been insisting the offshore ridge will be at 150W. The 18z is generally thought to be the most inaccurate run.

TT-SEA · #437 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:44 pm

With this pending East Coast blizzard... there is tons of activity on here now and our thread keeps getting pushed down (unless we post often)!!

TT-SEA · #438 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:52 pm

Good call on the flooding Wizzard...

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getwarn.php?wfo=sew&zone=WAC033&pil=SEAFLWSEW

andrewr · #439 Postby **andrewr** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:56 pm

Over 9" in Amanda Park with 8 hours left in the day. AMAZING.

TT-SEA · #440 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 7:18 pm

Amazingly... Stampede Pass has received almost one inch of rain since 10 a.m... all falling while the temperature was below freezing!!

Still... the totals have not been too extreme in the Cascades.

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