Pacific Northwest Weather

[andrewr]

I was thinking the same thing, but KING 5 seems to have enough confidence in it to mention the total on their Newscast. The Mercer Island rain gauge on the other hand was way off yesterday when it was reporting something around 13-18" of rain, but I believe this one to be working.

[W13]

What is Forks at??

I know they got lots of rain... but that could very well be a malfunctioning gauge.

No idea, since the rain gauge in La Push isn't working, but I would guess and say 3-5" of rain. Nowhere near what Amanda park is getting.

[AnthonyC]

Still windy, but no rain. Looks like were in the rain shadow, which is not typical for Mukilteo. But with a WSW flow aloft, it sometimes happens. Winds have calmed down a bit...probably 20-25mph G35mph. It was VERY windy from 4-6 pm.

[W13]

Amanda Park, if I remember correctly, is on the East Slopes of the Olympic Mountains, and kind of in a rainforest type of zone.

[TT-SEA]

Those school sites have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Amazingly... my thermometer just touch 60.0 but now reads 59.9!! 60 degrees after dark in January.

Obviously warm is rushing in now with 45 degrees at Stampede Pass and heavy rain.

Goodbye snow.

[W13]

Looking at the latest radar return, it looks like lots of moderate to heavy rain is headed our way. I wouldn't be surprised if we got over 2.50" of rain by midnight (we already have 1.54").

[TT-SEA]

With the air so warm now... the rain rates are going to go up.

I think Amanda Park maybe an error because Forks is at about 4 inches for the day.

We are back up to 60.0 degrees with heavy, almost tropical rain.

It also feels a little humid outside... such a drastic change from Saturday!!

Just 48 hours ago it was 35 degrees colder with heavy snow at my house.

[W13]

Well, the rain is back. Rainfall rate is now 0.16"/h and rising.

[andrewr]

Look up Amanda Park's location on mapquest.com. It is in the perfect position to receive a dumping during a Pineapple Express -- tucked up against the Southwest part of the Olympics.

[andycottle]

No way Tim....57 at your place?! That is mild! You know what that means.. time to dig out the shorts and tank top...lol. Well ok... not just yet. At any rate, definally a mild evening tonight. Looking that the 18z GFS...tomorrow through Thurdsday looking quite the same as today...wet! Looks like another inch or so of rain during thoes seperate days. -- Andy PS: 54 degrees and raining with occasional breezy winds here in Woodinville at 7:39pm.

[TT-SEA]

Currently 59.8 degrees... we are flirting with 60.

It feels like an June evening.

[andycottle]

Bet it does feel mild out there! Have`nt been outside since I got home from work this evening, but from see a temp of 54 at 8:14pm, then I know it`s pretty mild!.

A very rainy day today for sure. Steady rain all day long with steady drizzel during the evening hours. Ok...are ya ready to hear how much rain I got today, obs ending at 8pm this evening? Here it is. 1.10" of rain! WOW!! that is a lot of rain! Looks like I`m in a rain shadow right now. http://radar.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.katx.shtml

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

With this freakish warmth and the rain shadow being south of it's normal location, I am more convinced than ever that winter IS NOT over yet. On top of that they are predicting a 60.0 crest on the Snoqualmie. This would equal or break the record set in 1990. This has got warning bells all over it for a coming Arctic blast! This type of freakish warmth is very common before our most severe Arctic blasts. Conditions very similar to this occured just before the longest and most severe cold spell ever recorded for this area (Mid Dec - Feb 1861-62). These conditions have also come just before dozens of other notable cold spells. As of now the conditions in Covington are: 55 degrees, dead calm, pouring down rain, rainfall total today = 1.77"

[AnthonyC]

Looks like the south sound is getting clobbered with rain. The wind is now dead calm in Mukilteo. We went from gusts of 45 mph just two hours ago, to almost dead calm. Pretty eary if you ask me. Looks like the north sound is being spared the rain. I bet that baroclinic band lifts north throughout the night. It's amazing mild tonight...about 55 F with a muggy feel to the air.

[TT-SEA]

How do you know about 1861-62?

Do you have any links to read up on this?? I love climate research like this.

I have been trying to link to the WRCC site to look at historical records but cannot connect to any station's data. Tell me if you guys can get to the station data here...

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/summary/climsmsea.html

Do you know of any record warm and wet periods that did not lead to an arctic outbreak??

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

Until I see temperatures in the teens and snow falling from the sky, I just don't believe a major arctic blast is coming. This past blast had so much potential and was forecasted for days in advance, and it was very little to say the most. Although we had many days that were below 40 F and overnight lows in the 20s, we had very little moisture and snow. It almost seemed like a typical northwest flow aloft...but definitely no arctic blast. What are the long-range models saying? And what's the latest on the PNA and AO?

[andycottle]

Were definally getting our does of rain here in the PNW now aren`t we! I do believe so..! -- Andy

[andrewr]

I don't think we need a map to tell us that!

[TT-SEA]

For those of you that think the GFS is so bad in the long term... look at page 1 of this thread and the third post down from me last Thursday.

It was dead on.

Here it is:

Can you say Pineapple Express...

Here is the 60-hour precipitation ending next Tuesday (1/18) evening (i.e. Sunday 10 a.m. through Tuesday 10 p.m.)

[snow_wizzard]

As for the old records, I have microfilm of records from a lot of the old Military Forts that used to be in operation around here. I have also found a lot in old newsapaper microfilm. You will not see any records online from before 1892 or so. The 1850 - 1890 period is full of things you would never believe could happen here! We are talking cold and snow far beyond anything any of us have seen around here.

Yes...we have had warm and wet periods not lead to Arctic cold, but those were situations with strong El Nino's or other unfavorable factors. The trajectory of the pineapple express is important. When it comes in more from the W (like it is now) than the SW it is more favorable to lead to cold weather. I think that has something to do with the position of the ridge that this stuff is riding up on.

Finally...this past cold spell was closer to being the real thing than most of you think. The only thing that went wrong was the fact that the trough kicked out over the ocean too much. That one LITTLE detail is what ruined it for us. The big pieces of the puzzle were there. If those pieces come into play again, the chances are very high that we will have a better result. I am still somewaht impressed that the average temp for the first half of Jan at my place was 34.3. That is well below normal. I sure wish there had been more snow, but the cold was not bad. The GFS ensemble has been showing a ridge becoming anchored at 150W by months end. The potential is high we will see another cold spell.