Any arctic air in store for Texas?

[WhiteShirt]

Is there any arctic front in store for Texas in the near future...something that will come all the way down through the Houston area?

[Air Force Met]

Is there any arctic front in store for Texas in the near future...something that will come all the way down through the Houston area?

Not in the foreseeable future. Remember...we can go two or three years without seeing a pure arctic front make it down here...and we already had one on Christmas.

I have a pepper plant (Scotch Bonnett) in my back yard...that I planted in 2002...and Christmas was the first time I had to try and protect in since March of 2002.

For those who aren't gardeners...most pepper plants are annuals...and are supposed to die in the fall. This thing is going on 3 years old. Lets you know how UNCOLD it has been the last couple of years.

[CaptinCrunch]

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH NEAR BAJA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL COVER ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO BECOME SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN. A
SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO WARM TO AROUND 50
IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE WIND TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. MORE ABUNDANT
SUN ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND KEEP NORTH
TEXAS DRY AND MILD.

[WXextreme]

Is there any arctic front in store for Texas in the near future...something that will come all the way down through the Houston area?

Not in the foreseeable future. Remember...we can go two or three years without seeing a pure arctic front make it down here...and we already had one on Christmas.

I have a pepper plant (Scotch Bonnett) in my back yard...that I planted in 2002...and Christmas was the first time I had to try and protect in since March of 2002.

For those who aren't gardeners...most pepper plants are annuals...and are supposed to die in the fall. This thing is going on 3 years old. Lets you know how UNCOLD it has been the last couple of years.

AFM, would a blocking pattern tend to bring some Arctic air to the deep south? What should we look for to give us that potential?

[Air Force Met]

You need to see a large ridge of high pressure nosing into Alaska for us to get a good arctic thot. Occassionally you can get a front with lows in the 20's from just a nice longwave trof moving in...but for really good shots of artic air...you need that ridge to build north and dislodge it. That is what didn't happen last week...the air was never dislodged and it came down in trickles instead of one large lump. Another thing you need to look for is rising sfc pressures over AK and the Yukon on the order of 1050 or so. The rule of thumb for Houston is that if Montana has a 1040mb high coming through it...then Houston will have fropa in 2 days. If you get that 1050 high and a nice longwave pattern over the central US..then that will also provide a nice cold shot.

But the thing to look for is that building ridge in Alaska. Along those lines...watch Point Barrow's temperature. Once they begin to climb above normal...then expect an arctic front in a week. These are rules of thumb...they aren't perfect...but they work most of the time.

[gboudx]

If you like active weather, NTX seems to be in a "blah" pattern right now. Not much going on, no rain, no real cold air on the horizon. In other words, it's great! Good outdoors and golfing weather.

[WXextreme]

You need to see a large ridge of high pressure nosing into Alaska for us to get a good arctic thot. Occassionally you can get a front with lows in the 20's from just a nice longwave trof moving in...but for really good shots of artic air...you need that ridge to build north and dislodge it. That is what didn't happen last week...the air was never dislodged and it came down in trickles instead of one large lump. Another thing you need to look for is rising sfc pressures over AK and the Yukon on the order of 1050 or so. The rule of thumb for Houston is that if Montana has a 1040mb high coming through it...then Houston will have fropa in 2 days. If you get that 1050 high and a nice longwave pattern over the central US..then that will also provide a nice cold shot.

But the thing to look for is that building ridge in Alaska. Along those lines...watch Point Barrow's temperature. Once they begin to climb above normal...then expect an arctic front in a week. These are rules of thumb...they aren't perfect...but they work most of the time.

Thanks for your insight AFM.