Mid-Atlantic HECS Sunday

[Anonymous]

Early indications suggest MECS or even HECS for the Mid-Atlantic, with bullseye North and West of DC.

Any Pro Mets care to comment on this possibility?

[adelphi_sky]

Okay, I've seen the acronym MECS and now there's a HECS? What do both mean?

[JenyEliza]

Hellacious East Coast Storm?

[Anonymous]

MECS= Major East Coast Storm
HECS= Historic East Coast Storm

[RevDodd]

Heckuva East Coast Storm?

[Anonymous]

Don, what are your thoughts on this one and any updates for snowfall amounts this year for points North and West of DC?

[Lowpressure]

Early indications suggest MECS or even HECS for the Mid-Atlantic, with bullseye North and West of DC.

Any Pro Mets care to comment on this possibility?

Not a pro met, but I do live in D.C and am pretty good with this area along with Yoda and Jeb. NWS D.C. is starting to get on board with the weekend system. They are however concerned in the short term with the Wed clipper where we are looking at 1-3 inches tomorrow, maybe more according to trends. We are also expecting another dusting of snow on Thursday during the Presidential hoopla. Our winds chills are also making the short term news as well. After tomorrows snow, I think focus will swing dramatically towards thw weekend event.

[adelphi_sky]

Thanks for the help!

[IamMrBen]

I've been a student of the weather in the DC area for quite some time now, consequently I always lean toward a bust with any winter weather, lol.

Anyhow, I've noticed with the last two runs or so of the gfs, it seems that the lp center will be skirting the southern end of metro area. Wouldn't this proximity lead to a possible mixed bag? I realize that there will be some CADing, but it also looks like the 0 line is also being pulled further north with each of the more recent runs... Just my thoughts -- any merit to them?

[IamMrBen]

As a followup to what I posted earlier this afternoon, the accuweather that we all know and love has updated the Sat PM forecast to include a wintry mix... Weather pros out there -- is this a distinct possibility, or is accuweather relying to heavily on the gfs as always?

thanks

[adelphi_sky]

I'm in the DC area and the accuweather forecast says the same; wintery mix. Yet, the teperature it has for that day is 25. So I assume whatever falls will be frozen, whether it's snow or sleet. I doubt it will be freezing rain with temps that cold.

[Alexm89]

Yes, I live in Fredericksburg and they have some mixed for us too but accuweather isnt exactly that accurate as I have experienced in the past and it looks like most of whatever will fall will be snow.

[Anonymous]

My current thinking about the Wednesday clipper here in NE Virginia is toward a dusting to an inch of snow.

The weekend system bears careful watching.

This is no forecast but if we do get FRZRA with sfc temps at 25F (with the weekend system), its going to get really treacherous. The ground is frozen and we've noted highs in the low 20s/lows in the teens for a couple of days together with frigid NNW winds.

[Lowpressure]

Yes, I live in Fredericksburg and they have some mixed for us too but accuweather isnt exactly that accurate as I have experienced in the past and it looks like most of whatever will fall will be snow.

It will be an all snow event for Fredericksburg and points north. Read the NWS D.C. discussion regarding temp profiles- all snow and temps are still trending downwards with every update. Jeb is on except I believe a little over 1 inch, the dusting is on Thursday. Watch the weekend situation, still some uncertainty as to how much snow will fall, it will snow, question is how strong the coastal low becomes and where it forms as well as it's path. NWS D.C. feels the primary low should be the predominate snow maker they also stated we will be in the snow conveyer belt for a while.

[IamMrBen]

Thanks everybody for the great responses/info! It's great to be able to discuss weather w/ DC folks (and everyone else, too, of course!)

[donsutherland1]

BigEyedFish,

I believe Washington, DC and areas to its north and west have a good chance at seeing a significant snowfall (6" or more). It's too soon to speculate on actual amounts as there are numerous uncertainties e.g., strength, track, changeover, etc.

Right now, areas that I see as having a moderate or high chance at receiving a significant accumulation of snow include: Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Trenton, and Washington, DC--best guess at least 4 or 5 of those cities will see 6" or more and perhaps they will all see it. The 1/18/2005 18z GFS run does not change my thinking.

Boston has a chance, as well but there is a possibility that the significant snowfall stays to Boston's south and east. Several inches probably would accumulate there but it might not see the biggest snows from this system.