My gut feeling says blizzard

[Planetsnow]

And my gut feeling has been 98% accurate in the past five years about big storms, hits and misses. I pride myself with this, no matter what is predicted or not, it has mostly always been my gut feeling that has been correct. I know it sounds silly, but you can't argue with it being right 98% right. I kid you not.

Here is my predicted snowfall amounts for select cities based on my intuition:

Boston - 8-12 inches locally, 15-20 inches on Cape
New York City - 12-18 inches with up to two feet in Eastern LI
Philly and NJ - 20-25 inches, up to 30 possible on NJ shore
Washington DC/Baltimore - 18-24 inches with some sleet mixed in
Northern Maryland and inland PA - 22-26 inches
Northern and Central VA including Richmond - 12-18 inches with some freezing rain and sleet
Southern VA - 4-8 inches before rain
Inland NC and inland VA including mountains - 8-12 inches with freezing rain
Southern NC and SC - 2-4 inches followed by rain which will wash it all away.

That's my stab at it for now. Shoot me if you want. Let's see if I am right.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Very Good, that's exactly what I'm thinking

[adelphi_sky]

If the models agree with your gut feeling, I'm hitting the grocery and video stores on Thursday. Because come Friday, DC will turn into a city of disaster-crazed lunatics. You should see the shelves emptied out with just a 6" predicted snowfall. Imagine 2'.

[Fodie77]

I'm curious Planetsnow, I live in Winchester, VA, or for better reference, the northern most point in VA. Usually our area gets the most snow from storms such as these. A good rule of thumb around here is that north and west of D.C.=more snow. Why do you think northern VA will take less of a hit then D.C.?

[adelphi_sky]

I'm curious Planetsnow, I live in Winchester, VA, or for better reference, the northern most point in VA. Usually our area gets the most snow from storms such as these. A good rule of thumb around here is that north and west of D.C.=more snow. Why do you think northern VA will take less of a hit then D.C.?

My guess is that the storm/precip will be farther east so the heavy snow won't make it as far west if it were the usual case. I may be wrong.

[Planetsnow]

Good question Fodie. IF the storm winds up as much as I think it will, there may be just enough mid level mild air from the ocean wrapped in to produce some icing along with the snow, which may cut down on snowfall totals. However, if the storm tracks further south, you will be in the jackpot. STAY TUNED!

[Guest]

I think you're estimates are kinda close. But Northern Virginia is in the same boat as DC and Baltimore. Its more of a diagonal band from Manassas to DC to Baltimore. And I don't think we will see sleet here, it will be an issue along the coast however.

[Skywatch_NC]

I don't mind an 8" to 12" of snow here inland NC...BUT...the freezing rain can stay away, thank you.

Eric

[Burn1]

Planetsnow,

Let's see if you are right, however I think it is a big stretch with those
accumulation amounts...

[Chris the Weather Man]

I think west of NYC could see 18-25"........ Of course, I may be -removed- HERE.

[Fodie77]

Good question Fodie. IF the storm winds up as much as I think it will, there may be just enough mid level mild air from the ocean wrapped in to produce some icing along with the snow, which may cut down on snowfall totals. However, if the storm tracks further south, you will be in the jackpot. STAY TUNED!

Thanks, I assure you I will, as I think your predictions seem pretty solid.

[jude]

I am a sub sub amateur- but I, too, do well with the 'gut' level of prediction .
Been checking the pantry and the frezer, the candles and the batteries...all day.
I am on the Jersey Shore...
It is rare but if it is gonna happen this is the perfect lead up!

-Jude